Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2 Outcome

February 18th, 2010 by PSUSyr5 2 comments »

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On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday. I believed that Syracuse would be the only one to do so. So if Syracuse came out on top of Baltimore, and they were the only ones of the five GSB cities to over take Baltimore, that would be my first win in Stump the Weather Chump.

The table below shows the snowfall totals for Baltimore and each of the GSB cities, as reported by the National Weather Service with the help of some math.

Season Snow Totals
City February 14th
Forecast outcome: NOT STUMPED
Baltimore 79.9
Albany 22.4
Binghamton 52.3
Buffalo 64.9
Rochester 65.3
Syracuse 80.0

By the slimmest of margins, I hit this one. Both Stump the Weather Chump volumes have been very close: missed by one day in the first one, hit by 0.1 inches on this one.

Sorry, Patrick, you did not stump the weather chump.

Stump The Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 50%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 1

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

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Syracuse Still King and Pittsburgh in Top 5

February 18th, 2010 by Patrick No comments »

I just did a fast top 10 update and Syracuse is still the king of the snow mountain. Pittsburgh with it’s last snowfall did what I thought they would do and moved up a couple of spots to make it into the top 5. As a matter of fact the PA cities are owning the top 5 with 3 of them in it. Pretty impressive in my opinion to be able to surpass the mighty New York cities of Buffalo and Rochester. This could be a state rivalry in the works. Just imagine the bragging rights Pitt would have if they happened to beat the always snowy Erie, Pa. Pretty cool IMO. Will try and get a full update in either today or on Friday.

Have a Super Day All!

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 12 Results

February 17th, 2010 by PSUSyr5 No comments »

By tomorrow, I should have a solid idea as to the results of the latest edition of Stump the Weather Chump. I believe there was a correction made (perhaps having to do with missing data from the weekend, or with it being midway through the month at the time the correction was made, or any other reason) on Monday. Now on to the Golden SnowCast results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the Golden Snowball cities would have more total snowfall on Saturday and Sunday than on Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the two totals, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snow Totals
City Saturday and Sunday Monday and Tuesday
GSB Cities with more snow on the weekend: 3
Albany 0.1 5.3
Binghamton 0.6 2.4
Buffalo 1.6 0.2
Rochester 0.9 0.5
Syracuse 2.2 1.6

Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each had more snow on the weekend, so the forecast is correct. It is interesting to see how close the totals were for Rochester and Syracuse, and how far apart they are for Albany. I also find it interesting that each city, except for Rochester had over an inch of snow on at least one of the 2 day periods.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Kentucky and West Virginia will have a total of 2 inches of snow or more for Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the snowfall amounts for each day and the total, as reported by the NWS.

Snow Totals in Kentucky and West Virginia
City Monday Tuesday Total
Cities with 2 or more inches total: 4
Charleston, WV 0.9 3.0 3.9
Huntington, WV 5.2 1.8 7.0
Lexington, KY 5.0 0.6 5.6
Louisville, KY 3.9 0.2 4.1

This forecast was correct. For me personally, if my snowfall prediction is within a few inches of the actual snowfall, I’m quite happy. In this case, I said 2 inches and both Charleston and Louisville were within 2.1 inches of my expectations. So I’m pretty satisfied with that result. Huntington and Lexington however, were a bit higher than anticipated. By the way, Lexington’s 5.0 on Monday broke a record for February 15th that was held since 1993 when they had 4 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 21-3 87.5%
NYS 10-2 83.33%
World 11-1 91.67%

Another 2 for 2 forecast and the percentage continues to inch toward the 90% goal. I need the next 6 forecasts to be correct to reach the mark. But it isn’t good enough to just get there, I have to finish there. I believe a good stopping point for this season will be the 20th forecast, so it would be another 8 forecasts for the 2009-2010 snow season.

Have a great night everyone!

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Syracuse King of the Snow Mountain Maybe???

February 16th, 2010 by Patrick 1 comment »

Pay attention to the maybe in the headline above. This should get some good controversy going :) I just did a full update with all of the cities and seen a few adjustments to a few cities. This happens during the season and has always happened at the smaller goldensnowball website every season. Sometimes it’s just a mistake while NOAA is updating the most recent stats. Other times it’s an adjustment that NOAA is making to the city stats because they may have found a mistake from previous updates which could go back a few weeks. Either way it’s not any kind of conspiracy and for now we will keep Syracuse as in the lead unofficially. No biggy, trust me on this my good friends in Baltimore ;)

With Pittsburgh in the top 10 now and still on the move I got to do an interview with a radio station in the Pittsburgh area. Every now and then I’ll get a call or an email from a journalist or reporter asking questions about our snow contest all in fun So anyways I was talking with Maria Leaf a Reporter at, Newsradio 1020 KDKA

She was a very friendly women and asked some good questions all of which I was clueless to of course :) When it comes to interviews I’m a big time sissy man and pretty much just freeze up and try to wing it. Kind of like I am when I first talk to a woman at a bar. Well I suppose after a few soda pops I do a little better but I didn’t have a chance for that today. For anyone interested in hearing the interview of the clueless (Me) you can check it out at Newsradio 1020 KDKA sometime tomorrow morning between 5 am and 9 am on their morning news. That’s if it even makes it past the cutting table. Unfortunately I’ll still be sleeping. So if it does make in on the air Hello and a Big Welcome to those of you in Pittsburgh. Hmmmm, a big welcome even though ya’s did spank us (Syracuse) for our first loss of the season. Pitt – Syracuse rematch at the garden????

Have a great Day All!!!

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Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2 Update

February 15th, 2010 by PSUSyr5 3 comments »

I was going to post the outcome today, but came across a little bit of conflicting data.

In the forecast, I said that only one Golden Snowball city would be ahead of Baltimore by the end of Sunday: Syracuse. At the time, Baltimore had 79.9 inches while Syracuse, the closest of the GSB cities, had 76.1. Baltimore did not have any measurable snow for the weekend, so Syracuse would need to reach 80.0 inches to take the lead.

On the update from 1245 AM February 15th, the summary for February 14th is shown. A look at the seasonal snowfall (marked Since Jul 1) is 78.5. That’s 1.4 inches behind Baltimore. However, when I was watching the evening news, I saw that the snowfall today at the airport, where the official measurements are taken, was 0.5 inches, bringing the total for the season up to 80.5. Quick math shows that 80.5-0.5=80.0, which is more than Baltimore’s snowfall. I thought that was a mistake and went back to the NWS climate data. I checked for the most recent report. Sure enough, it is reported that today is 0.5 inches and the season is 80.5. So, somewhere is an “extra” 1.5 inches.

There is a missing snowfall measurement from the 5:19 PM update on February 13th, so it could be that the data is now found. But it is also possible that the 1.5 inches in question is a mistake.

Since the difference between STUMPED and NOT STUMPED lies within the 1.5 inches, I am not ready to call this one final for a little while longer when the data differences may be cleared up a little.

Have a great week everyone!

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Snowiest City Update Coming Sometime Today

February 14th, 2010 by Patrick No comments »

First off I’ve gotten hit with a lot of great emails and thanks for all the response. I’ll be answering them as soon as I have a chance. The same with the comments on here. I am reading all of them as they are posted.

The top 10 snowiest cities have been updated and hopefully all of the cities will be updated. I’ll post here when the update is done. Syracuse Orange -vs- Louisville at 1:00 PM so chances are that there will be a 2 hour break at 1 :) GO CUSE!!!

Happy Valentines Day All :)

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 12

February 13th, 2010 by PSUSyr5 No comments »

Since the latest Stump the Weather Chump involves snow for the Golden Snowball Cities for the weekend, the New York State forecast will be comparing weekend snowfall with the start of the work week.

At least one of Golden Snowball cities will have more snow total for the weekend than for Monday and Tuesday.

It’s a little bit of a blind forecast since the weekend totals are obviously unknown at this point. For the forecast to be correct the 48 hour total for Saturday and Sunday must be greater than the 48 hour total for Monday and Tuesday in at least one of the GSB cities.

The World forecast involves Kentucky and West Virginia.

At least half of the cities used for verification in Kentucky and West Virginia will total 2 inches or more of snow for Monday and Tuesday.

There are four cities involved in this: Charleston and Huntington, WV and Lexington and Louisville, KY. For the forecast to be correct, 2 or more of them must total at least 2 inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2

February 12th, 2010 by PSUSyr5 4 comments »

On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

Something tells me it won’t be Albany or Binghamton, so those are eliminated right off the bat. So, now it’s down to 3: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.

As of the early morning NWS update, Baltimore has 79.9 inches for the season. It looks like they will stay there by the end of Sunday. Buffalo has 63.1, Rochester has 63.9 and Syracuse has 76.1. I don’t believe either Buffalo or Rochester will get over 16 inches of snow this weekend, so if any of the GSB cities will move ahead of Baltimore, it would be Syracuse which needs 3.8 inches to tie.

If Syracuse is going to get 3.8+ inches, it’ll be from Lake Effect. That will likely occur from Saturday afternoon through Monday. It’s hard to believe that a LES storm lasting that long won’t drop at least 3.8 inches in a given area.

Syracuse will be the only Golden Snowball city to have more snow than Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

If you believe you can Stump The Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results

February 11th, 2010 by PSUSyr5 1 comment »

With all the excitement with the snow storms, I forgot to post my results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that one of the New York City reporting stations would have more total snow for the weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities. The table below shows the snowfall for the NYC reporting stations and the GSB cities on Saturday and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Weekend Snowfall in New York State
City Saturday Sunday
GSB Cities with less snowfall than NYC: 5
Central Park Trace None
JFK 1.6 None
La Guardia Trace None
Albany None None
Binghamton None 0.4
Buffalo Trace Trace
Rochester 1.0 Trace
Syracuse None Trace

JFK had 1.6 total, and all the GSB cities had an inch or lower. So this forecast was correct. Interesting to note the difference between the 3 NYC stations, Central Park and La Guardia both having a trace while JFK had over an inch. Binghamton was the only city to report measurable snowfall on Sunday.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 1 of Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC would have at least 10 inches of snow for the weekend. While it may look obvious that this held up, and wasn’t all that close, remember that a portion of the snow fell on Friday. The table below shows the snow totals for Saturday and Sunday for those cities, according to NWS.

Mid-Atlantic Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with 10 inches or more: 2
Baltimore, MD 17.0 None
Newark, NJ 0.4 None
Philadelphia, PA 22.0 None
Pittsburgh, PA 9.7 Trace
Washington, DC 9.1 None

With Baltimore and Philadelphia over the threshold, this forecast was correct. Pittsburgh and Washington, DC almost broke through the 10 inch plateau as well. All but Newark broke snowfall records for February 6th. In case you were wondering, Newark’s record for February 6th was set in 1978 with 17.9 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 19-3 86.36%
NYS 9-2 81.82%
World 10-1 90.91%

Another two for two forecast, and I’m inching toward the 90% goal. I have changed the table a little bit, now showing the percentage for each region, in addition to the overall. Forecast 12 should be up tomorrow. Lately, Thursdays and Fridays have been days when I’m less busy, which is why I’ve done forecasts for the weekend, or days close to it, in the recent weeks.

Have a great end of the work week!

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Baltimore Storms Past Syracuse for The Lead

February 11th, 2010 by Patrick 2 comments »

I just did a full update and if the stats are right Baltimore is now king of the snow mountain. Just typing that made me have to take another look at the stats. A city from Maryland, the state that has one of my favorite vacation places (Ocean City) that on average has about a foot of snow at this time is leading if my stats are correct. I’m loving it :) Ummm, as long as they don’t hold the lead for too long that is ;)

Here is a good article by Frank Roylance who is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun that puts into perspective as to what is going on in Baltimore, Maryland snow wise! http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2010/02/so_far_this_winter_6_feet_7_in.html

Washington, DC has made it into the top 10 even after the switch from Dulles to National. Most likely I’ll be talking to someone from NOAA in the next week or so to see what they think about the locations and so on.

The Pa. cities are cashing in big time with these snow storms with 3 of them in the top ten. Erie, Pa I expected to be a tough competitor but I didn’t think Pittsburgh and no way Philadelphia to be in there. My brother lives in Philly and in the last 2 days he must have called here about 10 times rubbing it in :(

If you have any cool snow pictures you can send them to comments@goldensnowglobe.com and I’ll post them here on the site. Just let me know where the pics were taking and any other info you want to add.

Here in Syracuse all is pretty quiet with just snow showers in the forecast and I won’t even begin to tell those of you in DC, PA and Maryland how jealous I am right now. That just doesn’t sound right either!

Have a Great Snowy Day All!

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