All posts for the month February, 2010

This week brought the first real storm to the Golden Snowball cities. A few snow records were broken for either Thursday or Friday in a majority of the GSB cities (Binghamton, Rochester and Syracuse). The roads were in pretty bad shape on Thursday night and I couldn’t get to work. It took me about a half an hour to go 2 miles, at which point I decided to call in and let them know I wouldn’t be able to be there. So I’d rather not deal with snow in the area for a little while. That includes forecasts, so the New York State forecast will go with a temperature outlook to start the work week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have above freezing high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

I feel better already! It’s not a snow forecast, and involves temperatures being above freezing. I’ll take it at this point. For the forecast to be correct, high temperatures must be above 32 degrees F in at least 3 out of 5 GSB cities on Monday and Tuesday. For a little clarification, it must be the same 3 this time.

The world forecast involves snow for the southern New England area.

At least half of the five major reporting stations in southern New England will have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday.

I had a hard time finding an area to forecast, and an even harder time figuring out snowfall amounts. So, I’m defaulting to the “measurable snowfall” forecast. The five cities that will be used for verification are Boston and Worcester in Massachusetts, Bridgeport and Hartford in Connecticut and Providence, RI. If three out of the five get at least a tenth of an inch on either Monday or Tuesday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that all five Golden Snowball cities would be within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Sunday Average/Reported Monday Average/Reported
GSB Cities with temperatures within 5 degrees of average: 5
Albany 36/35 36/40
Binghamton 32/34 33/37
Buffalo 35/33 35/33
Rochester 34/34 35/34
Syracuse 35/29 35/40

All five were within 5 degrees on Monday, so the forecast is correct. Syracuse was the only one to not be within 5 on both days as Sunday’s high was 6 below average. Rochester was spot on for Sunday, as their high temperature was exactly the average temperature of 34.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 2 of the 6 big cities of Illinois, Kansas and Missouri would have at least a half inch of snow total for Sunday and Monday. Below is a table showing snowfall for each day as reported by the National Weather Service.

Illinois, Kansas, Missouri Snowfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with half an inch or more total: 4
Chicago, IL 2.0 1.1
Rockford, IL 2.5 0.7
Topeka, KS 3.5 None
Wichita, KS 0.1 Trace
Kansas City, MO 5.1 None
St. Louis, MO None None

Four out of the six cities had over a half of an inch, so this is correct. St. Louis was the only city to not have snow on either day but most of the others went over the 0.5 inch total on one day. In fact, Kansas City’s 5.1 inches on February 21st broke their previous record of 3.6 set in 1997.

It seems to me that I keep lowballing snowfall amounts this season. That’ll be something for me to work on in the future.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 23-3 88.46%
NYS 11-2 84.62%
World 12-1 92.31%

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is almost 1.5% away from the goal. If the next two week’s forecasts are correct, 90% will be reached. I’d like to get the next forecast up by tomorrow. Unfortunately, work and online class kept me busy earlier this week so I couldn’t do a forecast for the current snow storm in New York State.

Have a great end to the week everyone, and remember snow means SLOW!

I just did a quick top 10 update on the snowiest cities. I figure no sense doing a full update until the storm thats ready to hit the North East blows through. Here in Syracuse it’s just a storm watch but hopefully that will change and the storm will shift a little. Right now Philly is looking like the place to be once again for some good snow totals. Can they make it to the top of the snow mountain and bump Da’Cuse down from it? Will Pitt or Erie maybe Rochester pile on the snow. Stay tuned because there could be a new leader in the next day or two.

Have a Super Night All and remember See Snow Drive Slow. Take it easy :)

It’s been a PSUSyr5 marathon to end the work week. Wednesday was the results of the GSC Forecast 12 and yesterday was the outcome of StWC Volume 2. Today is the new GSC forecast. You all deserve a break from me for the weekend. :)

It’s back to a temperature outlook for the Golden Snowball cities in this New York State forecast.

All five Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Sunday or Monday.

This time, a majority is not good enough. The last time I did that was the first NYS forecast, which featured none of the five getting measurable snowfall. Binghamton ruined that one. For the forecast to be correct, all GSB cities need to have their high temperatures be no more than 5 above or below their average highs on Sunday or Monday.

Illinois, Kansas and Missouri are the featured areas for the World forecast.

At least one third of the bigger cities in Illinois, Kansas and Missouri will total at least half of an inch of snow for Sunday and Monday.

There will be six cities involved in this forecast, 2 of the bigger cities from each of the three states. They are Chicago and Rockford from Illinois, Topeka and Wichita in Kansas and Missouri’s Kansas City and St. Louis. For the forecast to be correct, at least 2 of these six cities must have 0.5 inches or more combined snowfall on Sunday and Monday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Girly Checks Personal Bank Checks
On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday. I believed that Syracuse would be the only one to do so. So if Syracuse came out on top of Baltimore, and they were the only ones of the five GSB cities to over take Baltimore, that would be my first win in Stump the Weather Chump.

The table below shows the snowfall totals for Baltimore and each of the GSB cities, as reported by the National Weather Service with the help of some math.

Season Snow Totals
City February 14th
Forecast outcome: NOT STUMPED
Baltimore 79.9
Albany 22.4
Binghamton 52.3
Buffalo 64.9
Rochester 65.3
Syracuse 80.0

By the slimmest of margins, I hit this one. Both Stump the Weather Chump volumes have been very close: missed by one day in the first one, hit by 0.1 inches on this one.

Sorry, Patrick, you did not stump the weather chump.

Stump The Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 50%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 1

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

I just did a fast top 10 update and Syracuse is still the king of the snow mountain. Pittsburgh with it’s last snowfall did what I thought they would do and moved up a couple of spots to make it into the top 5. As a matter of fact the PA cities are owning the top 5 with 3 of them in it. Pretty impressive in my opinion to be able to surpass the mighty New York cities of Buffalo and Rochester. This could be a state rivalry in the works. Just imagine the bragging rights Pitt would have if they happened to beat the always snowy Erie, Pa. Pretty cool IMO. Will try and get a full update in either today or on Friday.

Have a Super Day All!

By tomorrow, I should have a solid idea as to the results of the latest edition of Stump the Weather Chump. I believe there was a correction made (perhaps having to do with missing data from the weekend, or with it being midway through the month at the time the correction was made, or any other reason) on Monday. Now on to the Golden SnowCast results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the Golden Snowball cities would have more total snowfall on Saturday and Sunday than on Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the two totals, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snow Totals
City Saturday and Sunday Monday and Tuesday
GSB Cities with more snow on the weekend: 3
Albany 0.1 5.3
Binghamton 0.6 2.4
Buffalo 1.6 0.2
Rochester 0.9 0.5
Syracuse 2.2 1.6

Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each had more snow on the weekend, so the forecast is correct. It is interesting to see how close the totals were for Rochester and Syracuse, and how far apart they are for Albany. I also find it interesting that each city, except for Rochester had over an inch of snow on at least one of the 2 day periods.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Kentucky and West Virginia will have a total of 2 inches of snow or more for Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the snowfall amounts for each day and the total, as reported by the NWS.

Snow Totals in Kentucky and West Virginia
City Monday Tuesday Total
Cities with 2 or more inches total: 4
Charleston, WV 0.9 3.0 3.9
Huntington, WV 5.2 1.8 7.0
Lexington, KY 5.0 0.6 5.6
Louisville, KY 3.9 0.2 4.1

This forecast was correct. For me personally, if my snowfall prediction is within a few inches of the actual snowfall, I’m quite happy. In this case, I said 2 inches and both Charleston and Louisville were within 2.1 inches of my expectations. So I’m pretty satisfied with that result. Huntington and Lexington however, were a bit higher than anticipated. By the way, Lexington’s 5.0 on Monday broke a record for February 15th that was held since 1993 when they had 4 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 21-3 87.5%
NYS 10-2 83.33%
World 11-1 91.67%

Another 2 for 2 forecast and the percentage continues to inch toward the 90% goal. I need the next 6 forecasts to be correct to reach the mark. But it isn’t good enough to just get there, I have to finish there. I believe a good stopping point for this season will be the 20th forecast, so it would be another 8 forecasts for the 2009-2010 snow season.

Have a great night everyone!

Pay attention to the maybe in the headline above. This should get some good controversy going :) I just did a full update with all of the cities and seen a few adjustments to a few cities. This happens during the season and has always happened at the smaller goldensnowball website every season. Sometimes it’s just a mistake while NOAA is updating the most recent stats. Other times it’s an adjustment that NOAA is making to the city stats because they may have found a mistake from previous updates which could go back a few weeks. Either way it’s not any kind of conspiracy and for now we will keep Syracuse as in the lead unofficially. No biggy, trust me on this my good friends in Baltimore ;)

With Pittsburgh in the top 10 now and still on the move I got to do an interview with a radio station in the Pittsburgh area. Every now and then I’ll get a call or an email from a journalist or reporter asking questions about our snow contest all in fun So anyways I was talking with Maria Leaf a Reporter at, Newsradio 1020 KDKA

She was a very friendly women and asked some good questions all of which I was clueless to of course :) When it comes to interviews I’m a big time sissy man and pretty much just freeze up and try to wing it. Kind of like I am when I first talk to a woman at a bar. Well I suppose after a few soda pops I do a little better but I didn’t have a chance for that today. For anyone interested in hearing the interview of the clueless (Me) you can check it out at Newsradio 1020 KDKA sometime tomorrow morning between 5 am and 9 am on their morning news. That’s if it even makes it past the cutting table. Unfortunately I’ll still be sleeping. So if it does make in on the air Hello and a Big Welcome to those of you in Pittsburgh. Hmmmm, a big welcome even though ya’s did spank us (Syracuse) for our first loss of the season. Pitt – Syracuse rematch at the garden????

Have a great Day All!!!

I was going to post the outcome today, but came across a little bit of conflicting data.

In the forecast, I said that only one Golden Snowball city would be ahead of Baltimore by the end of Sunday: Syracuse. At the time, Baltimore had 79.9 inches while Syracuse, the closest of the GSB cities, had 76.1. Baltimore did not have any measurable snow for the weekend, so Syracuse would need to reach 80.0 inches to take the lead.

On the update from 1245 AM February 15th, the summary for February 14th is shown. A look at the seasonal snowfall (marked Since Jul 1) is 78.5. That’s 1.4 inches behind Baltimore. However, when I was watching the evening news, I saw that the snowfall today at the airport, where the official measurements are taken, was 0.5 inches, bringing the total for the season up to 80.5. Quick math shows that 80.5-0.5=80.0, which is more than Baltimore’s snowfall. I thought that was a mistake and went back to the NWS climate data. I checked for the most recent report. Sure enough, it is reported that today is 0.5 inches and the season is 80.5. So, somewhere is an “extra” 1.5 inches.

There is a missing snowfall measurement from the 5:19 PM update on February 13th, so it could be that the data is now found. But it is also possible that the 1.5 inches in question is a mistake.

Since the difference between STUMPED and NOT STUMPED lies within the 1.5 inches, I am not ready to call this one final for a little while longer when the data differences may be cleared up a little.

Have a great week everyone!