Stump the Weather Chump

All posts tagged Stump the Weather Chump

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2 Outcome

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 18, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

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On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday. I believed that Syracuse would be the only one to do so. So if Syracuse came out on top of Baltimore, and they were the only ones of the five GSB cities to over take Baltimore, that would be my first win in Stump the Weather Chump.

The table below shows the snowfall totals for Baltimore and each of the GSB cities, as reported by the National Weather Service with the help of some math.

Season Snow Totals
City February 14th
Forecast outcome: NOT STUMPED
Baltimore 79.9
Albany 22.4
Binghamton 52.3
Buffalo 64.9
Rochester 65.3
Syracuse 80.0

By the slimmest of margins, I hit this one. Both Stump the Weather Chump volumes have been very close: missed by one day in the first one, hit by 0.1 inches on this one.

Sorry, Patrick, you did not stump the weather chump.

Stump The Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 50%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 1

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2 Update

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 15, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

I was going to post the outcome today, but came across a little bit of conflicting data.

In the forecast, I said that only one Golden Snowball city would be ahead of Baltimore by the end of Sunday: Syracuse. At the time, Baltimore had 79.9 inches while Syracuse, the closest of the GSB cities, had 76.1. Baltimore did not have any measurable snow for the weekend, so Syracuse would need to reach 80.0 inches to take the lead.

On the update from 1245 AM February 15th, the summary for February 14th is shown. A look at the seasonal snowfall (marked Since Jul 1) is 78.5. That’s 1.4 inches behind Baltimore. However, when I was watching the evening news, I saw that the snowfall today at the airport, where the official measurements are taken, was 0.5 inches, bringing the total for the season up to 80.5. Quick math shows that 80.5-0.5=80.0, which is more than Baltimore’s snowfall. I thought that was a mistake and went back to the NWS climate data. I checked for the most recent report. Sure enough, it is reported that today is 0.5 inches and the season is 80.5. So, somewhere is an “extra” 1.5 inches.

There is a missing snowfall measurement from the 5:19 PM update on February 13th, so it could be that the data is now found. But it is also possible that the 1.5 inches in question is a mistake.

Since the difference between STUMPED and NOT STUMPED lies within the 1.5 inches, I am not ready to call this one final for a little while longer when the data differences may be cleared up a little.

Have a great week everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 12, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

Something tells me it won’t be Albany or Binghamton, so those are eliminated right off the bat. So, now it’s down to 3: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.

As of the early morning NWS update, Baltimore has 79.9 inches for the season. It looks like they will stay there by the end of Sunday. Buffalo has 63.1, Rochester has 63.9 and Syracuse has 76.1. I don’t believe either Buffalo or Rochester will get over 16 inches of snow this weekend, so if any of the GSB cities will move ahead of Baltimore, it would be Syracuse which needs 3.8 inches to tie.

If Syracuse is going to get 3.8+ inches, it’ll be from Lake Effect. That will likely occur from Saturday afternoon through Monday. It’s hard to believe that a LES storm lasting that long won’t drop at least 3.8 inches in a given area.

Syracuse will be the only Golden Snowball city to have more snow than Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

If you believe you can Stump The Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1 Outcome

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 28, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , .

An Update Coming Soon! We are updating all the city snow totals today so check back later to see who is winning and how your city is doing.

OK, On January 18th, an anonymous poster on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know on what date a majority of the GSB cities would have 4 more inches of snow than the given date. While out of my league, I went for it. My target date was February 1st, but I gave myself a 3 day window. So, if the day when at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities had 4 more inches than on January 19th was between January 29 and February 4th, that would have been a win for me.

Since I’m giving the outcome before that window, and that it’s the only one in Volume 1, it’s pretty clear what the outcome of the forecast is.

Golden Snowball Snow Totals
City Afternoon January 19 Afternoon January 28
Forecast outcome: STUMPED
Albany 19.8 20.2
Binghamton 39.3 40.5
Buffalo 48.7 59.8
Rochester 47.9 52.5
Syracuse 58.2 63.0

Yes, I missed it by 1 day. That is some of the difficulty with long range forecasts such as this. I’m actually somewhat surprised my range ended up being as close as it was. But close is not good enough here.

Congratulations, anonymous poster, you stumped the weather chump!

Stump the Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 100%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 0

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump like the anonymous poster did, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 19, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , .

On January 18th, an anonymous commenter on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know the date when 3 out of 5 Golden Snowball cities will have 4 more inches of snow than their current totals.

A quick look indicates that it will be relatively quiet snow-wise for most of the GSB cities for the week. After that, forecasts generally fall apart, so this is where the fun (and the “shot in the dark”) begins. I’m targeting February 1st as the day in question.

This is where the modification comes in to play. Since it is well beyond the 2-3 day range that is ideal for me (forecasts for a few days in advance are what I gave as a part of Penn State’s Campus Weather Service and the 2-3 day range is currently used with the Golden SnowCast), I am going to give myself a 3 day window on either side.

The date when at least 3 GSB cities increase their snow totals by 4 inches or more from today (using the 1/19 afternoon updates as the starting point) will be between January 29th and February 4th.

Here are the snow totals from the 1/19 afternoon updates:
Albany 19.8
Binghamton 39.3
Buffalo 48.7
Rochester 47.9
Syracuse 58.2

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, feel free to leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range, but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

Can You Stump the Weather Chump?

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 23, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

You’ve seen the Golden SnowCast forecasts, but none of them have been for an area where you live. Or, perhaps there is a region out there that you’d like to see a forecast for, and the Golden SnowCast didn’t cover it. After all, there is only one World prediction in each Golden SnowCast forecast, so the chances of coverage for a specific area are quite small for a given time period. Or, maybe the Golden SnowCast did cover your area previously, but now you want more.

Say hello to Stump the Weather Chump. This is your chance to be a part of the forecasts. Just make a reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post stating at least the region for which you would like a forecast. You can also mention what you would like in the forecast as well (temperature, precipitation, etc). I would like to keep the forecasts to 2-3 days ahead. Some forecasts may be general statements (at least half of the cities in the area will have temperatures 5 below average, all cities will have at least an inch of snow, etc) or involve a range (high temperatures 40-45, snow 1-3 inches, etc). That will mostly depend on what’s out there and the details given in the forecast request. So, basically, this will be like the Golden Snowcast forecast, except you control the forecast elements.

As with the Golden Snowcast, I’ll be keeping track of my progress (or lack there of) with this.

This is my Christmas present to you all, so enjoy it! :)