With this season’s Golden Snowball contest just about over, I figured this would be the best time to recap the forecasts. There are still 2 forecasts left to show results, so let’s get to it!

The first one was a PBR and goes back to the middle of March and involved Flagstaff, AZ. If they totaled at least 16 inches of snow March 18th and 19th, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 12 to 16 inches would be On Target. Here are the totals for each day:

March 18: 19.5
March 19: 6.9

March 18th by itself was enough to breakthrough the threshold, so that is a Bull’s Eye! By the way, the 19.5 recorded for the date crushed their old record of 8.7 set in 1982.

Now on to the final forecast of the season: the March SITD. That one was for 5 cities in the northeast: Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA and Washington, DC. If all five had below average snowfall in March, that would be a Bull’s Eye. A majority under average would be on target. Here are the respective cities’ totals, with averages in parenthesis:

Baltimore, MD: 0.0 (1.9)
Boston, MA: 0.6 (7.8)
New York, NY: 0.0 (3.7)
Philadelphia, PA: 0.0 (2.5)
Washington: DC: 0.0 (1.3)

All were below average, (in fact, all but Boston had no snowfall), so this was a Bull’s Eye forecast, the first of the season for the SITD outlooks.

The average took a big jump as a result of these results, but it was not enough. The final average is 0.88, below the 1.00 goal at the end of the season. That means next season’s goal will remain at 1.00. It’s the PBR forecasts that did me in this time, with as many Complete Miss forecasts as the other two categories combined.

Just a few more weeks remain in the Golden Snow Globe contest. Enjoy these last few weeks everyone!

Before I get into this forecast, one quick announcement. I have decided to reduce this season’s forecasts to 8 PBR and 4 SITD forecasts. That means this will be the last PBR and the March outlook is the last SITD.

With that out of the way, let’s check how the last forecast fared, which involved Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY and Salt Lake City, UT. That prediction had a 2 day range from a trace to 3 inches for March 6th and 7th. If all 5 were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target would be a majority. Here are the totals:

Billings, MT: 1.2
Boise, ID: 0.3
Denver, CO: Trace
Cheyenne, WY: None
Salt Lake City, UT: 2.0

Four out of five were in range, so that is On Target!

That moves the average up slightly, but still well below the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the season. In fact, even if both this and the March SITD forecasts are Bull’s Eye results, I will fall below the threshold.

Now on to the final forecast of the season, which focuses on Flagstaff, AZ. While not quite big enough to be in the GSG standings, they do get a good amount of snow, and I wanted to include them in some capacity. So, here it is…

Bull’s Eye Flagstaff will have at least 16 inches of snow by the end of Monday.
On Target Flagstaff will have at least a foot of snow by the end of Monday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Enjoy your St. Patrick’s Day weekend everyone!

3 SITD forecasts down, 2 to go. The March outlook involves the I-95 corridor, but we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at the February prediction.

I believed that Anchorage, AK would have well above average snowfall in February. In fact, Anchorage having triple it’s average was a Bull’s Eye while doubling average was On Target.

Anchorage’s February 2012 snowfall total: 27.8
Anchorage’s February average snowfall: 10.9

Anchorage did not quite get to triple the snowfall average, so it’s an On Target prediction.

That moves the average slightly up to 0.58, still well below the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the season.

Now it’s time for the March outlook, featuring Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA and Washington, DC.

Bull’s Eye All five selected cities will have below average snowfall in March.
On Target A majority of the cities will have below average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great March everyone!

With my plan to get to 9 or 10 PBR forecasts done by the end of the month, I’ll occasionally have to take a couple of “little snow” forecasts. While not ideal, I’d rather do that now than have to do something else in April. Besides, as long as I’m predicting SOME snow, it’s still good, right?

Before I get into the next forecast though, I have to look back at the previous one which involved Minneapolis, MN, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND, Aberdeen, SD and Pierre, SD. If at least one of them totaled a foot or more snow from the 28th to the 29th, that would be a Bull’s Eye. If all of them had at least 6 inches of snow, but none were over a foot, that’s On Target. Here are the totals:

Minneapolis, MN: 2.8
Bismarck, ND: 1.5
Fargo, ND: 4.4
Aberdeen, SD: 7.7
Pierre, SD: 5.5

I’m on quite the losing trend now. With four out of the five having less than 6 inches of snow, this is my 3rd straight Complete Miss.

With that, I fall to half of the goal. There are 4 more PBR and 2 more SITD forecasts left to be made. So I need to have a great ending stretch to reach the goal.

Let’s see if this forecast will get me back in the right direction. It features Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY and Salt Lake City, UT.

Bull’s Eye All five cities will have snowfall totals between a trace and 3 inches by the end of Wednesday.
On Target A majority of the cities will have snowfall totals between a trace and 3 inches by the end of Wednesday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great week everyone!

With Leap Day right around the corner, I figured I’d try to celebrate the extra day with a bang. Mother nature is helping out a bit, and I’ll get to that later.

First, it’s a check on how the last forecast fared. That outlook called for snowfall in the 2-6 inch range over the extended weekend for the selected cities. If all five were in range: Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4: On Target. Here are those totals:

Lexington, KY: None
Charleston, WV: Trace.
Charlottesville, VA: 5.8
Washington, DC: Trace
Baltimore, MD: None

Um…woops. Only Charlottesville was in range, so that’s a Complete Miss, the 2nd straight one for me.

Am I really going to do a lot better with long range forecasts than the short term ones? Seems that way. That forecast was also the halfway point for the PBR, just 5 remain. I have my work cut out for me if I’m going to hit the 1.00 average.

So let’s get to it with the next forecast! This one features Minneapolis, MN, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND, Aberdeen, SD and Pierre, SD.

Bull’s Eye At least one of the five will have a foot or more snow by the end of Wednesday.
On Target All five chosen cities will have at least 6 inches of snow by the end of Wednesday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great week everyone. And if you’re in the snow storm’s path, be careful out there!

It has been awhile since I’ve done a PBR forecast on the site, and it’s about time I fixed that. Before that, here are a couple of notes.

First off,I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was pretty much a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. There are 7 weekends between now and April, so if I plan on a forecast for each week, then I’ll be in good shape.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that said, let’s take a look back at the last forecast, done for January 27th and 28th. I believed that snowfall would be in the 1-3 range for Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Minneapolis, MN, Detroit, MI and South Bend, IN. If all five were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye while a majority would be On Target. Here are the snowfall totals.

Madison: 0.5
Milwaukee: 0.6
Minneapolis: 0.5
Detroit: 1.3
South Bend: 0.4

Only Detroit was in range, so that is a Complete Miss.

With that out of the way, it’s time for this edition. The featured cities are Lexington, KY, Charleston, WV, Charlottesville, VA, Washington, DC and Baltimore MD.

Bull’s Eye All five of the selected cities will total 2-6 inches of snow for the 3 day weekend.
On Target 3 or 4 of the selected cities will total 2-6 inches of snow for the 3 day weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

It’s time for another edition of Shot In The Dark Forecasts! I wouldn’t be doing Anchorage any justice if I didn’t feature them at least once this season. So for February, they get the spotlight to themselves in this SITD forecast. Before we get to that, how did the January forecast fare?

I believed January would be below average for five chosen cities. If that held true, it’d be a Bull’s Eye forecast. Another way to get the Bull’s Eye was if one of the five was below average by a foot or more. 3 or 4 of the cities were below average, with none being a foot or below average, then the forecast was On Target. Below are the totals for those five cities and their averages in parenthesis.

Ann Arbor, MI: 16.8 (13.4)
Colorado Springs, CO: 0.5 (5.1)
Erie, PA: 26.5 (29.8)
South Bend, IN: 35.0 (20.6)
Worcester, MA: 13.6 (17.1)

3 out of the 5 were below average. None of them were lower by a foot or more, so it’s On Target. Of the group, South Bend was the big winner, beating average by more than 14 inches!

So let’s take a look at the standings. Remember that for SITD, an On Target forecast is worth 2 points.

If this was a Bull’s Eye, I’d be right at 1.00. So I am just a bit short with a little more than half of the forecasts to go.

Now for this edition’s forecast, which features only Anchorage, AK. In an average season, Anchorage will get 11 inches in February. But as we the stats show, this has been anything but average for Anchorage. In fact, they’re already almost 30 inches above average for the entire season! I think this above average pattern will continue for them.

Bull’s Eye Anchorage’s February total will be at least triple average for the month.
On Target Anchorage’s February total will be at least double average for the month.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!

It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. But before the newest outlook is revealed, I have to show how the previous one fared.

The previous prediction involved Seattle, WA, Spokane, WA, Boise, ID and Billings, MT. All four falling in the 6-10 inch range for 2 days would be a Bull’s Eye. 2 or 3 of them in range would be good enough for On Target. Let’s check the totals!

Seattle: 7.1
Spokane: 9.7
Boise: 4.8
Billings: 9.7

For those who are curious, Seattle (6.8 on 1/18) and Billings (9.6 on 1/19) broke snowfall records for the given day while Spokane (6.0 on 1/19) tied theirs.

Boise was the only one that did not fall in range, so that is an On Target prediction!

Still a bit below the 1.00 goal, but at least the average is moving in the right direction…for now. This is the fourth PBR forecast, so after this one there will be 6 remaining. On the SITD side, there will be 3 more monthly outlooks. So overall, we’re basically 40% done with this season’s forecasts.

Now it’s time for this edition’s forecast, featuring Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Minneapolis, MN, Detroit, MI and South Bend, IN.

Bull’s Eye All five of the selected cities will total 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday.
On Target 3 or 4 of the selected cities will total 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!