All posts for the month April, 2011

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average for three Colorado cities. Below are the snowfall totals for them with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Colorado Springs: 3.1 (9.4)
Denver: 2.5 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)

Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.

That did not work well at all. Here are the updated standings, including both GSB and GSG.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.83
GSB 1 0 2 2
GSG 1 1 1 3
Total 2 1 3 5

With both GSB and GSG forecasts falling into the Complete Miss range, my average has dropped below the 1.00 goal set before the season. Of the four remaining forecasts in progress, it looks like I’ll need at least 2 Bull’s Eye forecasts to get to the 1.00 mark.

With that in mind, here’s an update on the April outlook. I had set the Bull’s Eye as all of the top 5 holding their positions, while 3 out of the 5 would be On Target. Below are the top 5, as of the April 5th update by Pat, with where they were when the forecast was made in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)

At the moment, this would be a Complete Miss. Syracuse and Rochester are pretty much locked in at 1 and 2, so it would take some shuffling around with the other 3 to get me to at least On Target.

Hey, have a great week everyone!

I finally got a full update in and the top 10 snowiest cities shifted around quite a bit. Boston was pushed out of the top 10 by Green Bay, Wi who has been on the move the last few updates. Three cities from New York are in the 1, 2, 3 spots on the snow mountain.

Buffalo managed to move up to third place which is a little bit of a surprise seeing how they are in 4th place over at which is a contest between 5 cities in NY. Binghamton, NY holds the #3 spot there with Buffalo in 4th place. Right now it’s Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo holding the top 3 but other than Syracuse it’s still pretty close between several cities for 2nd place on the mountain. I’m pretty sure that Syracuse has this seasons Golden Snow Globe wrapped up :) We still have to wait a bit because it snows forever in Colorado. Not that they have a shot but just in case.

I’ll probably only be doing a couple more full updates but will try like I always say to at least get more top 10 snowiest city stats updated than I have been doing.

Hey, have a super week all ;)

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures with the 5 biggest U.S. cities. Below are the coldest lows for Los Angeles and Houston, and the warmest highs for Chicago, New York City and Philadelphia.

Los Angeles: 50
Houston: 55
Chicago: 45
New York City: 53
Philadelphia: 52

Bull’s Eye: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia’s warmest highs.
On Target: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than 2 of the three warmest highs.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

This is an On Target forecast. But was it enough to reach the 1.00 goal?

Point Blank Range Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.90
GSB 1 4 5 6
GSG 3 6 1 12
Total 4 10 6 18

No! It was the Golden Snowball forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. The forecasts here were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!

Recently, the U.S. Census Bureau released the results from the 2010 survey. As a result, there will be changes made in the upcoming seasons to reflect the population shift. As the post title states, the current leader, and last year’s champion, Syracuse, fell under 100,000. Syracuse’s population is now at 98,401, ineligible to be in the Golden Snow Globe contest.

It is pretty ironic since the reason Pat decided to start this contest was to see how Syracuse’s snowfall fared against other big cities on a yearly basis. There are several cities out there that get more snow than Syracuse, but don’t have the population. Now, Syracuse citizens will have the same feeling as those from places like Flagstaff, AZ when another city is declared the snowiest in the country, despite the “champion” having less snow. That is, of course, assuming Pat decides to keep the population threshold at 100,000.

In other news…

April Fool’s!

Have a great day everyone!