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All posts for the month February, 2011

Tired of winter yet? Well, if you live in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, it doesn’t matter because more snow is on the way! More details to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

The previous forecast involved snowfall for Billings, MT, Cheyenne, WY, and Salt Lake City, UT. Below are their snow totals for the 20th and 21st.

Billings: 3.7
Cheyenne: 0.4
Salt Lake City: 2.4

Bull’s Eye: All 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
On Target: 2 of the 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 1 or 0 of the 3 cities has 1-4 inches of snow.

Just missed the Bull’s Eye by 0.6 inches in Cheyenne, but On Target is fine too.

Point Blank Range Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.92
GSB 1 2 3 4
GSG 2 3 1 7
Total 3 5 4 11

However, that’s not enough to keep me at 1.00 as it was yet another Complete Miss over at GSB. With that, I’ve fallen to 0.92 for the season. Just 4 more weeks remain for the forecasts to reach that 1.00 mark.

I need a strong finish on GSB, but it won’t mean anything if the forecasts here fall flat. Let’s end February on a happy note! Happy, that is, if you live in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania and love snow. If not, well, then, why are you on this site anyway?! I’m sure residents in that area already know about the storm coming their way, so let’s just get on with the forecast, focused on cities Cleveland and Toledo, OH as well as Erie, PA!

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 6 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend, .
On Target: All three get at least 6 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: One of the three gets less than 6 inches of snow this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone, and be sure to check out the forecast over on Golden Snowball!

I finally got my lazy butt around to doing an update. OK, it wasn’t so much as being lazy as it was to having bronchitis which kicked my butt. Then I had to get caught up on my other work (real job) but now I’m good to go again I think ;) Anyways, sorry about that and I was just as curious as most of you as to how the stats look after 2 weeks of no update. Not a whole lot happened to be honest and I was a little disappointed.

There was a little bit of shuffling in the top 10 but it’s the same snowiest cities in there. None of the top 10 dropped out. What I noticed this update is how widespread the snow was. Other than a handful or two of the cities we have listed almost all of them are over their average snowfall for the season. At least the ones I could find stats for.

Syracuse continues to climb higher on the snow mountain and with winter rounding the corner to the finish line they may reach the peak of the mountain where no other city can catch them. I think we may be talking about at least a few good storms for any of the cities to have a snowballs chance. So in other words, get out there and do a snow dance or two so we can get this contest close :)

Have a Super Week All!

I wanted to get these forecasts done on Friday, but there were some difficulties, which will be explained in a little bit. This forecast goes a little bit east of the last one, focusing on Montana, Utah and Wyoming.

Before we get into that, it’s the results from the last one. Unfortunately, when I checked for Reno’s stats, snowfall data was missing for Wednesday and Thursday, the 2 days involved in the forecast. That is the problem with verifying forecasts, sometimes results aren’t available as quickly as one would like. The Reno stats are available now, so the next forecast is coming up soon. The delay doesn’t have too big of an impact here, but it made the forecast over on Golden Snowball a little bit harder on me.

Now that is out of the way, here are the snowfall totals for Reno, NV and Salt Lake City, UT for Wednesday and Thursday.

Reno: 2.3
Salt Lake City: 3.7

Bull’s Eye: Reno and Salt Lake City total 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target: Only Reno totals 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss: Reno’s snowfall total is outside of the 2-4 inch range.

Both were in range, so that is a Bull’s Eye. Interesting that both were 0.3 inches away from the end points of the range.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

Point Blank Range Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.00
GSB 1 2 2 4
GSG 2 2 1 6
Total 3 4 3 10

A pretty solid week for me, as the GSB forecast was On Target, and I’m back to the 1.00 average. That is exactly the goal set at the beginning of the season. We’ve reached the halfway point for the forecasts, and I’d like to have it all wrapped up at the end of March.

Now on to this forecast, which, as mentioned previously, focuses on Montana, Utah and Wyoming. I’ll be using Salt Lake City, Billings and Cheyenne from each of their respective states. The snow storm currently out west will be moving east, and as a result, I expect these cities to get 1-4 inches over the next few days.

Bull’s Eye: All 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
On Target: 2 of the 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 1 or 0 of the 3 cities has 1-4 inches of snow.

Be sure to check out the GSB forecast update as well. Have a great rest of the week everyone!

This is the first forecast that involves the midweek. Part of that is to make up for not having one for the past weekend, and part of it is for what some would consider to be an unusual event.

Before this forecast is shown though, it is a look back to the last one. Last forecast involved snowfall for the major cities in Ohio. The weekend totals are listed below.

Akron: 1.0
Cincinnati: 0.6
Cleveland: 2.6
Columbus: 1.3
Dayton: 1.3
Toledo: 7.0

Bull’s Eye: All 6 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
On Target: 4 or 5 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
Complete Miss: 3 or fewer of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.

Akron, Cleveland, Columbus and Dayton all were within 1-3 inches, so this is an On Target Forecast.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

Point Blank Range Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.88
GSB 1 1 2 3
GSG 1 2 1 4
Total 2 3 3 7

It was a tough forecast period for me as the GSB forecast was a Complete Miss. As a result, I’m at 7 points for 8 forecasts, which puts me at an average of .88. 12 forecasts, 6 periods worth, still remain for the season.

On to this forecast, which features snowfall in Reno, NV and Salt Lake City, UT. While Reno is the star of it, I’m using Salt Lake City for my Bull’s Eye forecast. A bit different for the forecasts, but as mentioned before, it is a bit different situation. Snow is expected for Reno today, which will work its way to Salt Lake City tonight through Thursday. I’m expecting Reno to have 2-4 inches of snow from this event, with Salt Lake City likely getting in that range as well.

Bull’s Eye: Reno and Salt Lake City total 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target: Only Reno totals 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss: Reno’s snowfall total is outside of the 2-4 inch range.

Be sure to check out the GSB forecast update as well. Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Some snow accumulations are expected in Ohio over the weekend, so that is where this edition of the Point Blank Range Forecasts will be focused. Before we can get into that though, it’s a look way back to the last one.

The forecast for January 21-23 involved low temperatures in Texas. Below are the lowest temperatures recorded over the weekend (Friday night through Sunday) for each of the 5 cities.

Austin: 20 (5:07am Jan 22)
Dallas/Forth Worth: 25 (6:53am Jan 22)
El Paso: 32 (7:16am Jan 22)
Houston: 30 (7:25am Jan 22)
San Antonio: 28 (7:15am Jan 22)

Austin’s 20 degrees was a record for January 22nd, their previous for the date was 23, set in 1985.

Bull’s Eye: All five listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.
On Target: Three or four listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.

El Paso’s low was right on freezing, which cost me the Bull’s Eye, instead making the forecast On Target.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

Point Blank Range Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.00
GSB 1 1 1 3
GSG 1 1 1 3
Total 2 2 2 6

A good weekend for me, and as a result, the average is back up to 1.00, the goal set at the beginning of the season. With 7 forecasts remaining, there still is time to fall back again if I’m not careful.

Now onto this weekend’s outlook, which features the major cities in Ohio (Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Toledo). A system will be moving through the area, but accumulations should be very light. I expect totals to be in the 1-3 inch range over the weekend for most of the state.

Bull’s Eye: All 6 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
On Target: 4 or 5 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
Complete Miss: 3 or fewer of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snowball site for the forecast update. Have a great weekend everyone!

One month down, two more to go for the Shot In The Dark Forecasts. This month’s will focus on some of the major midwest cities. But before we get into that, it’s a look back at January.

The January forecast involved Boston, New York City and Philadelphia snowfall. In particular, reaching a foot of snow on a day in the month. Below are the number of days each city reached a foot of snow.

Boston: 1 (January 12: 14.6 inches)
New York City (Central Park): 1 (January 26: 12.3 inches)
Philadelphia: 1 (January 26: 14.2 inches)

Bull’s Eye: Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
On Target: 2 of the 3 have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
Complete Miss: 1 or none have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.

All three reached at least a foot of snow once, so that is a Bull’s Eye Forecast, a great way to start.

Here are the results, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts Results
Region Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.00
GSB 0 0 1 0
GSG 1 0 0 2
Total 1 0 1 2

The GSB forecast was a Complete Miss, so as a result, the average sits at 1.00, exactly the goal set before the forecasts began.

Now onto the February forecast, which, as mentioned before, focuses on the Midwest. It was a rough start to February for Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Madison and Milwaukee. I believe the worst of the snow is behind them, at least for the month.

Bull’s Eye: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for all five cities.
On Target: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for three or four of the cities.
Complete Miss: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for two or fewer of the cities.

For a point of reference, the snowfall totals for the first two days in each city are as follows:
Chicago: 20.2
Detroit: 10.6
Kansas City: 8.9
Madison: 14.3
Milwaukee: 17.6

Be sure to check out the Golden Snowball site to see that edition as well. I will resume the Point Blank Range Forecasts tomorrow.