It’s a bit of a warm stretch now in the upstate New York region, so the New York State forecast involves a temperature forecast for the GSB cities.

All of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures 5 degrees above average, with at least one city topping average highs by at least 10 degrees, on either Thursday or Friday.

It’s one of the rare forecasts where there are two standards going on at once. First off, all five of the GSB cities must be 5 degrees above average on either day. In addition, at least one of those cities must be above average by 10 degrees or more on either Thursday or Friday. These do not have to occur on the same day for the forecast to be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a rain prediction for Maryland and Pennsylvania.

At least one of the five major reporting stations in Maryland and Pennsylvania will receive a half an inch or more of rain on either Thursday or Friday.

The five reporting stations that will be used are Baltimore, MD, and Pennsylvania’s Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If one of these five cities report at least 0.5 inches of rain on either Thursday or Friday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great week everyone!

On yesterday’s On The Block, a local radio program on WSKO 1260 (simulcast on Time Warner Cable Sports), the host Brent Axe spent a good portion of time talking about the possibility of the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament expanding to 96 teams. I sent an email to the show, and it actually was read on the air. So here is that e-mail:

I am not completely against expansion. Division I has one of, if not the lowest percentage of teams that get to the tournament out of the major sports. Even with expansion, the percentage of teams will still be lower than most, so the sense of accomplishment will still be there. However, there would be a right way and a wrong way to expand. If they simply add 31 more “at large” teams, that would be a mistake and I wouldn’t be interested in that. Right now, in all conferences not named Ivy League, the regular season championship does not mean much. That would change if the 31 added spots went to conference regular season champions. If the regular season champion and tournament champion are the same (or if your conference doesn’t have a tournament), then the 2nd automatic bid goes to the #2 regular season team.

So, what are your thoughts on the possible tournament expansion?

All of the top 10 stayed but there were some changes in the lineup. Erie, pa is hanging tough and Rochester jumped a couple of spots on the snow mountain. March has been know to have some decent storms and this contest is far from over so Syracuse better not start counting their snowballs yet

That said I think it is time to cut some of the cities out of the updates on the all of the US cities page. I was thinking maybe knocking it down to about 25 – 30 cities. Any thoughts on that???

Hey, have a super day all!

All five were above freezing, so the forecast was correct. Albany was the hot spot to be among the five, as both days high temperatures were well into the 40s. Buffalo was the only one within 5 degrees of freezing on both days.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 3 out of 5 New England NWS stations would have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the NWS snowfall reports.

The streak has come to an end, unfortunately. None of the five had measurable snowfall on Tuesday, and only 2 of them had 0.1 or more on Monday. That means only 2 had measurable snowfall on either day. Providence was the only one to have some sort of snowfall on both days, but each was just a trace.

This week was a split, so the percentage went down a little bit. The New York State and World forecasts now have the same percentage, just over 85%. If my plan to have 20 forecasts holds up, there is no room for error to reach the 90% target.

Have a great rest of the week!

First off, the lack of updates. There is a post over on the New York State Golden Snowball site regarding that. As another note, I am not an admin, nor do I want to be at this time, so I can’t make the updates either. I’ve been fairly busy with work and online classes, so even if I was able to make updates, I am not sure how often those would have occurred. I will be done with my latest course by the end of the month, so with any luck I’ll be able to make more posts at that time.

Also, I’ve noticed comments about Flagstaff, AZ. Yes, they have more snow than Syracuse. However, part of the criteria for making the list is having a population size of 100,000 or more. Their population a bit short of that, so that is why they are not on the list. Pat will have to explain why the threshold is in place, instead of using all NWS sites, when that time comes. I have an idea of why, but it would be better if it came from him, especially if my thought is not correct. For now, part of what I’d like to do when I’m done with my course is to have a ranking of the cities that are short of the threshold, but do have National Weather Service reports. I’d also use reports from stations that aren’t used on our official listing, like Dulles for Washington, DC. I figure it could be similar to the former WOW contest on the Golden Snowball site.

With this being the first year of this contest, we’re all working out the kinks. Things haven’t quite gone as planned on my end, as I would have liked to taken more of a reporting role like I did earlier with the first snow storm that hit the mid-Atlantic states and snow in Arizona. Perhaps I’ll be able to do that more next season when my program should be completed. We’re using everything that has happened this season as a learning experience to make the future seasons’ contests go as smoothly as possible.

Thanks for your understanding in all this and have a great week!

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have above freezing high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

I feel better already! It’s not a snow forecast, and involves temperatures being above freezing. I’ll take it at this point. For the forecast to be correct, high temperatures must be above 32 degrees F in at least 3 out of 5 GSB cities on Monday and Tuesday. For a little clarification, it must be the same 3 this time.

The world forecast involves snow for the southern New England area.

At least half of the five major reporting stations in southern New England will have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday.

I had a hard time finding an area to forecast, and an even harder time figuring out snowfall amounts. So, I’m defaulting to the “measurable snowfall” forecast. The five cities that will be used for verification are Boston and Worcester in Massachusetts, Bridgeport and Hartford in Connecticut and Providence, RI. If three out of the five get at least a tenth of an inch on either Monday or Tuesday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

All five were within 5 degrees on Monday, so the forecast is correct. Syracuse was the only one to not be within 5 on both days as Sunday’s high was 6 below average. Rochester was spot on for Sunday, as their high temperature was exactly the average temperature of 34.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 2 of the 6 big cities of Illinois, Kansas and Missouri would have at least a half inch of snow total for Sunday and Monday. Below is a table showing snowfall for each day as reported by the National Weather Service.

Four out of the six cities had over a half of an inch, so this is correct. St. Louis was the only city to not have snow on either day but most of the others went over the 0.5 inch total on one day. In fact, Kansas City’s 5.1 inches on February 21st broke their previous record of 3.6 set in 1997.

It seems to me that I keep lowballing snowfall amounts this season. That’ll be something for me to work on in the future.

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is almost 1.5% away from the goal. If the next two week’s forecasts are correct, 90% will be reached. I’d like to get the next forecast up by tomorrow. Unfortunately, work and online class kept me busy earlier this week so I couldn’t do a forecast for the current snow storm in New York State.

Have a great end to the week everyone, and remember snow means SLOW!

Have a Super Night All and remember See Snow Drive Slow. Take it easy

It’s back to a temperature outlook for the Golden Snowball cities in this New York State forecast.

All five Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Sunday or Monday.

This time, a majority is not good enough. The last time I did that was the first NYS forecast, which featured none of the five getting measurable snowfall. Binghamton ruined that one. For the forecast to be correct, all GSB cities need to have their high temperatures be no more than 5 above or below their average highs on Sunday or Monday.

Illinois, Kansas and Missouri are the featured areas for the World forecast.

At least one third of the bigger cities in Illinois, Kansas and Missouri will total at least half of an inch of snow for Sunday and Monday.

There will be six cities involved in this forecast, 2 of the bigger cities from each of the three states. They are Chicago and Rockford from Illinois, Topeka and Wichita in Kansas and Missouri’s Kansas City and St. Louis. For the forecast to be correct, at least 2 of these six cities must have 0.5 inches or more combined snowfall on Sunday and Monday.

Have a great weekend everyone!