The Snowiest Cities in the US are Updated

OK, I’m an idiot ;) I did an update on the stats late yesterday except there was one problem. I forgot to upload them to the site. Anyways he stats have been updated and they should be up to date as of earlier yesterday, 1/29. A few changes in the top 10 but Da’Cuse continues to hold the lead. Erie, Pa and Buffalo, NY are closing in on Syracuse and it’s a pretty tight snow race right now. I’ll try and get another update done in the next day or two once the storm that’s going on now is over.

Have a Great Weekend All :)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 10

The end of January is near, with the weekend being the last few days of the month. It’s out with the old and in with the new for the New York State forecast. It involves a temperature outlook for first day of February.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures below freezing on Monday.

New York State started the work week with temperatures in the 50s, but it’s a much different story this time. The Golden Snowball cities have been in a big chill for the past few days. While that will ease somewhat on Monday, temperatures will still be below freezing. A correct forecast will have at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities below 32 degrees on Monday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at part of the plain states. But don’t worry, they are trying to redecorate. Poor attempt a humor, my apologies.

At least half of the five biggest cities in Iowa and Nebraska will receive measurable snowfall on Monday.

The five cities used for verification will be Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Davenport in Iowa and Nebraska’s Lincoln and Omaha. At least 3 of them need to have a tenth of an inch or more of snowfall for the forecast to be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1 Outcome

An Update Coming Soon! We are updating all the city snow totals today so check back later to see who is winning and how your city is doing.

OK, On January 18th, an anonymous poster on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know on what date a majority of the GSB cities would have 4 more inches of snow than the given date. While out of my league, I went for it. My target date was February 1st, but I gave myself a 3 day window. So, if the day when at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities had 4 more inches than on January 19th was between January 29 and February 4th, that would have been a win for me.

Since I’m giving the outcome before that window, and that it’s the only one in Volume 1, it’s pretty clear what the outcome of the forecast is.

Golden Snowball Snow Totals
City Afternoon January 19 Afternoon January 28
Forecast outcome: STUMPED
Albany 19.8 20.2
Binghamton 39.3 40.5
Buffalo 48.7 59.8
Rochester 47.9 52.5
Syracuse 58.2 63.0

Yes, I missed it by 1 day. That is some of the difficulty with long range forecasts such as this. I’m actually somewhat surprised my range ended up being as close as it was. But close is not good enough here.

Congratulations, anonymous poster, you stumped the weather chump!

Stump the Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 100%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 0

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump like the anonymous poster did, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 9 Results

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have their Monday high temperatures be before 8am. The table below shows the high temperature and when it was recorded by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs in New York State
City High Time
Cities with high temperatures before 8am: 3
Albany 56 2:53pm
Binghamton 52 9:41am
Buffalo 49 12:38am
Rochester 56 5:02am
Syracuse 57 7:16am

This prediction was correct. Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse all high high temperatures recorded before 8am. As an interesting note, Buffalo had the earliest recorded and lowest temperature. However, Albany had the latest recorded but was not the highest temperature.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 2 of the 3 bigger cities in the Dakotas would have an inch or more of snow from Sunday to Monday. The table below shows the snow fall for each day, as reported by the National Weather Service, and the two day total.

Dakota Snowfall
City Sunday Monday Total
Cities with snow totals of an inch or more: 3
Fargo, ND Trace 2.2 2.2
Grand Forks, ND Trace 1.4 1.4
Sioux Falls, SD 0.9 1.0 1.9

This forecast turned out to be correct. I expected there to be more of an split on both days like Sioux Falls had with a tenth of an inch difference between the 2 days. However, Fargo and Grand Forks got over an inch on Monday while receiving no accumulation on Sunday. I admit, I was a little worried about my forecast after Sunday, but it pulled through.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS 7-2
World 8-1
Overall 15-3

Another 2 for 2 week, and the percentage continues to move toward the 90% goal. If that 83.33% looks familiar, it’s because that’s the exact percentage after week 3, when I was 5-1 overall. After reaching 83.33% the first time, the 4th forecast was a complete failure, going 0-2. I will try to avoid that with the next forecast.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 9

It’s been a pretty quiet time for snow in the Golden Snowball cities. The weekend appears to be quite warm and dry for this time of year, but then comes Monday. The New York State forecast involves the time in which the high temperature will be recorded.

The high temperature on Monday will occur before 8am for a majority of Golden Snowball cities.

Sunday night into Monday, cold air will take hold of the region. So whatever the high temperature ends up as on Monday will be very early in the day. For the prediction to be correct, the time when the high temperature is recorded must be before 8am Monday in at least 3 of the 5 cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look into snow for the Dakotas.

At least two out of three reporting stations in North Dakota and South Dakota will have at least an inch of total snow accumulation Sunday and Monday.

The three reporting stations used will be Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota and South Dakota’s Sioux Falls. If at least two of them receive an inch of snow or more from Sunday to Monday, the prediction will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 8 Results

For the New York State prediction, it was a 2 for 1 special. I believed a majority of the cities would have above freezing high temperatures and no measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures and snowfall for Monday, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs and Snowfall in New York State
City High Snowfall
Cities with high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall: 4
Albany 41 0.7
Binghamton 37 Trace
Buffalo 36 None
Rochester 37 None
Syracuse 39 Trace

Each of the five cities was above freezing. Only Albany had measurable snowfall while both Binghamton and Syracuse reported a trace. The prediction was correct. Interesting to note that Albany had the highest high temperature on Monday, yet still managed over a half inch of snow.

For the World Forecast, I believed that 2 out of the 4 big cities in Arizona and Nevada would have rain on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for the four cities.

Arizona and Nevada Rainfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with rain on either Sunday or Monday: 3
Las Vegas, NV None 0.04
Phoenix, AZ None 0.01
Reno, NV Trace 0.06
Tucson, AZ None None

This forecast was correct as well. Tucson was the only of the four not to have any rain on either day. The other three all had rain on Monday. Reno was the only one to have any sort of rain on Sunday, with just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 81.25%
NYS 6-2
World 7-1
Overall 13-3

Two more correct predictions and the percentage is back over 80%. I still have a bit of work to do to get up to 90%, as I need the next 7 weeks (14 predictions) to be perfect to reach that mark. At the very worst, I have more breathing room over 50%, as it would take 10 straight missed predictions to fall to that level.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1

On January 18th, an anonymous commenter on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know the date when 3 out of 5 Golden Snowball cities will have 4 more inches of snow than their current totals.

A quick look indicates that it will be relatively quiet snow-wise for most of the GSB cities for the week. After that, forecasts generally fall apart, so this is where the fun (and the “shot in the dark”) begins. I’m targeting February 1st as the day in question.

This is where the modification comes in to play. Since it is well beyond the 2-3 day range that is ideal for me (forecasts for a few days in advance are what I gave as a part of Penn State’s Campus Weather Service and the 2-3 day range is currently used with the Golden SnowCast), I am going to give myself a 3 day window on either side.

The date when at least 3 GSB cities increase their snow totals by 4 inches or more from today (using the 1/19 afternoon updates as the starting point) will be between January 29th and February 4th.

Here are the snow totals from the 1/19 afternoon updates:
Albany 19.8
Binghamton 39.3
Buffalo 48.7
Rochester 47.9
Syracuse 58.2

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, feel free to leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range, but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

Boring Comes to Mind – Snow Stats Updated 1/17/2010

No doubt this was the most boring update since we started keeping track of the snowiest cities. No changes in the top 10 and only a few changes for the rest of the US cities. It’s looking like some changes may be coming weather wise but it may depend on whether it’s rain, snow or a mix. A good part of the northeast is seeing rain and a mix right now as I type including where I’m from, the Syracuse area.

To the north west I’m hearing about several storm systems moving in one after another but again it will depend on the temperatures and where they hit. Could be a chance for the Colorado cities to start up again. Let’s hope that the Arctic air come back and gets some of the lakes cranking out the LES sooner rather than later.

Have a Great Work Week All :)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 8

The roads have been pretty dry for me in the past few days, and it’s not because of the plows. Temperatures have warmed up a little and snowfall has been minimal for the Golden Snowball cities, especially when compared to the end of December and start of January.

A majority of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall on Monday.

A little change of pace for this prediction. Usually the Golden SnowCast focuses on one variable, but this time it’s snow and temperatures. For the forecast to be correct, at least 3 of the cities need to have high temperatures above freezing AND have snowfall below a tenth of an inch.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Arizona and Nevada.

At least half of the four major reporting stations in Arizona and Nevada will have rain on Sunday or Monday.

Didn’t see that one coming, did you? The four reporting stations are Las Vegas and Reno, NV and Phoenix and Tucson, AZ. If at least 2 of these record rain on either Sunday or Monday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great end of the work week, and weekend, everyone!

A Newspaper Article About Our Snow Contest

I’ve always thought it was pretty cool when an article comes out about our New York State snow contest the Golden Snowball. It’s just as cool if not cooler that the first article with a mention of our national contest came out this morning in the Syracuse Post Standard newspaper.

Sean Kirst is the journalist of the piece and I have talked to him several times over the years about how much fun doing the contest is. He liked the idea that we started up a national snow race and to be honest it’s writers like Sean and several others who really get what it’s about and have made the GSB contest take off. Having fun with the snow contest but also trying to figure ways that snowy cities can use it to their advantage. Skiing, more places for kids (adults) to sled down hills, trails for snowmobilers, winter festivals and so on. In other words enjoying the snow because whether you want it or not we got it. You can check out the article HERE at Syracuse.com

Cheers,
Patrick