All posts for the month January, 2012

It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. But before the newest outlook is revealed, I have to show how the previous one fared.

The previous prediction involved Seattle, WA, Spokane, WA, Boise, ID and Billings, MT. All four falling in the 6-10 inch range for 2 days would be a Bull’s Eye. 2 or 3 of them in range would be good enough for On Target. Let’s check the totals!

Seattle: 7.1
Spokane: 9.7
Boise: 4.8
Billings: 9.7

For those who are curious, Seattle (6.8 on 1/18) and Billings (9.6 on 1/19) broke snowfall records for the given day while Spokane (6.0 on 1/19) tied theirs.

Boise was the only one that did not fall in range, so that is an On Target prediction!

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.60
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 1 1 1 3
Total 1 1 2 3

Still a bit below the 1.00 goal, but at least the average is moving in the right direction…for now. This is the fourth PBR forecast, so after this one there will be 6 remaining. On the SITD side, there will be 3 more monthly outlooks. So overall, we’re basically 40% done with this season’s forecasts.

Now it’s time for this edition’s forecast, featuring Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Minneapolis, MN, Detroit, MI and South Bend, IN.

Bull’s Eye All five of the selected cities will total 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday.
On Target 3 or 4 of the selected cities will total 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

With Anchorage, AK having a huge lead as of the last update, it got me thinking about how they would stack up with Syracuse’s totals from last season. I’ll be taking a look at a two different pieces in each post: how the two stack up straight up, and how they each compare to their respective averages. I figure this could be a fun feature throughout the remainder of the season, given how far up Anchorage is. And that’s what got me thinking about this comparison. Anchorage this season has a big lead, like Syracuse did a year ago.

Alright, enough rambling, let’s get to the stats!

Up first, snowfall, as of January 24th.

2011-12 Anchorage: 90.4
2010-11 Syracuse: 111.8

And here’s how far above average those are.

2011-12 Anchorage: 43.6
2010-11 Syracuse: 42.9

Well, hello there! Anchorage is slightly more above average than Syracuse was last season. The two seasons are indeed quite similar.

By the way, this time last year, Anchorage was sitting at 39.1 inches (7.7 below average). This season, Syracuse is currently at 27.6 (42.4 below average).

It’s that time again! I try to keep the regions varied, at least for the first few forecasts, and with snow making its way through the Northwest U.S. I figured it’s the perfect time for that region to join the forecast party.

Before we get into that, here’s a look at how the last forecast went.

Five cities, Cincinnati, OH, Cleveland, OH, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, and Detroit, MI, were chosen. If all five had snowfall totals between 1-6 inches for Thursday and Friday, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Let’s see how they stacked up:

Cincinnati: 1.0
Cleveland: 4.6
Chicago: 4.9
Indianapolis: 1.7
Detroit: 1.6

I probably could have toned the range down a bit, but this was about as good of a forecast as I can remember. All five were in range, so that’s a Bull’s Eye!

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.50
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 1 0 1 2
Total 1 0 2 2

Not where I want to be yet, but it’s still progress. With that in mind, here’s the next forecast, featuring Seattle, WA, Spokane, WA, Boise, ID and Billings, MT.

Bull’s Eye All four of the selected cities will total 6-10 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target 2 or 3 of the selected cities will total 6-10 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great rest of the week all!

Just did a full update on the snow totals and Anchorage, AK just isn’t looking back to see if anyone is gaining on them. They’ve added around a couple more feet to their snow totals and have almost double the snow as 2nd place Lakewood, Co. Watching the weather channel and some other stations plus getting some comments from people who live in Alaska some of the towns/cities like Cordova, Alaska have received around 18 foot of snow so far this season. No doubt it will be hard to catch Anchorage but there is still plenty of time left in the 2011-2012 season. The only problem is it has to actually stop snowing there for any of our cities to catch up. WTG Anchorage :)


Here is some information on Anchorage and Ak that Anne from Alaska posted in a comment.  Thanks Anne :)

 I am here in Anchorage and as of yesterday we broke all previous records for the amount of snow to date. We have had 81 inches as of yesterday and it is still snowing today. 81 inches is about twice what we normally have to date. In 94-95 we got 77 inches by January 9 and ended up with 120 for the winter. That year was beaten by 1954-5 which got 132.8 inches for the year and only 75 inches by January 9th. I was here in 94-5 and I recall that everyone started worrying about roofs collapsing under the snow. It happened in several places in town including the church down the street from me.
The small towns of Cordova and Valdez are also getting hit with more snow than usual:


The Colorado cities are starting to fall a littl bit but Lakewood, Co still has a nice snow pile seperating them for the 2nd spot on the snow mountain. With this last storm that came across the Great Lakes Erie, Pa was able to catch some of the white fluffy stuff along with several other cities in the northeast.

Syracuse, the snow champ for the last couple of years also managed to sled into the top 10 for the first time this season. They still have a long ways to go though if they want to defend their title of snowiest city in the United States with a population of 100,000 or more. I don’t think I would bet against them just yet as it looks like the cold air may be around for awhile this time. Buffalo, Erie, Rochester and some of the other lake effect snow cities have a decent chance at a big comeback for the fact that the Great Lakes haven’t frozen over yet this season. Last I heard was that Lake Erie was around 40 degrees which means that anytime some colder air comes across the lakes there is a good shot of seeing some lake effect snow pile up. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out.

Hey, Have a Super Weekend All ;)

Anyone remember the last PBR forecast? It was done in mid December. It’s been far too long, hasn’t it?

In that December forecast, I believed at least 3 of the 6 chosen cities (Flagstaff, AZ, Albuquerque, NM, Pueblo, CO, Amarillo, TX Guymon, OK and Wichita, KS) would get at least 6 inches of snow between the 19th and 21st. Here are the snowfall totals for each city:

Flagstaff: 0.0
Albuquerque: 1.4
Pueblo: 10.6
Amarillo: 0.6
Guymon: 7.0
Wichita: Trace

2 out of the 6 met the 6 inch mark, so this goes as a Complete Miss.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.00
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 0 1 0
Total 0 0 2 0

Nothing to show, as far as points go. With that in mind, here’s the new forecast, which is for Cincinnati, OH, Cleveland, OH, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, and Detroit, MI.

Bull’s Eye All five selected cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
On Target A majority of the selected cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer selected cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.

Have a great end to the work week, and maybe it won’t be so long before the next forecast!

What’s always late and rarely great? Shot In The Dark Forecasts of course! Time to check out just how bad December’s outlook was and try to do better with January’s.

For December, a Bull’s Eye 3 of the selected Colorado cities would double their snow total. If at least 1 of them got there, it’s On Target. Here are the cities chosen, with the snowfall amount they had at the time of the forecast.

Denver: 22.2
Fort Collins: 25.0
Lakewood: 28.8

Here’s how the stood at the end of December:

Denver: 29.5
Fort Collins: 34.2
Lakewood: 42.4

Lakewood got almost half of the mark, and they were the closest ones. No points for me in December. What is it with me and over estimating the Colorado cities? Did that last year, did it again this year.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.00
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 1 0

With that out of the way, time for the January outlook.

Thought I’d do something a little bit different and go with cities 6-10 in the latest standings. That’s Worcester, MA, Colorado Springs, CO, Erie, PA, Ann Arbor, MI and South Bend, IN. It’s been a slow go for snow this winter, and it just feels like it’ll continue.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is a foot or more below average, snowfall for January.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for January.
Complete Miss: A majority of the cities have average or above snowfall for January.

Have a great January everyone!

This has been one of the least snowiest seasons so far that I can remember especially in the north east. That could be changing though now that a blast of cold air has finally come over the great lakes producing some lake effect snow. Forecasts of up to a foot or more turned out to be a bust for cities like Syracuse and the surrounding areas but at least some snow fell. The top cities like Anchorage and the Colorado cities all took a break this last week giving the rest of us a chance to chip away at their lead.

South Bend, Indiana picked up enough snowflakes to move up 18 spots on the snow mountain which also has them in the top 10 now. Syracuse finally went over the one foot mark (pitiful for this late in the season) and managed to jump 23 spots up the mountain. Let’s hope that Alaska and Colorado will keep holding off enough to let the rest of us to keep catching up to them. Several other cities are starting to get into the snow contest and no doubt there is still enough time left in the season for some big changes in the lineup :)

I’m starting to see some forecasts about a possible coastal storm if everything falls into place toward the end of next week. Lets hope it all comes together ;) Enough for now! This is a good basketball night. Duke up first who I always cheer to lose, no offense to you Blue Devil fans and then Syracuse, the number 1 team in the country right now that I always cheer to win. Yes I bleed Orange :)

For those of Us Who Miss the Snow, Here is and Old Family
Movie of The Blizzard of 1966 in Syracuse, NY

The little kid in the brown coat and hat is me :)

Have a GREAT Week All and Go ‘CUSE!!!