kentucky weather

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By tomorrow, I should have a solid idea as to the results of the latest edition of Stump the Weather Chump. I believe there was a correction made (perhaps having to do with missing data from the weekend, or with it being midway through the month at the time the correction was made, or any other reason) on Monday. Now on to the Golden SnowCast results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the Golden Snowball cities would have more total snowfall on Saturday and Sunday than on Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the two totals, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snow Totals
City Saturday and Sunday Monday and Tuesday
GSB Cities with more snow on the weekend: 3
Albany 0.1 5.3
Binghamton 0.6 2.4
Buffalo 1.6 0.2
Rochester 0.9 0.5
Syracuse 2.2 1.6

Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each had more snow on the weekend, so the forecast is correct. It is interesting to see how close the totals were for Rochester and Syracuse, and how far apart they are for Albany. I also find it interesting that each city, except for Rochester had over an inch of snow on at least one of the 2 day periods.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Kentucky and West Virginia will have a total of 2 inches of snow or more for Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the snowfall amounts for each day and the total, as reported by the NWS.

Snow Totals in Kentucky and West Virginia
City Monday Tuesday Total
Cities with 2 or more inches total: 4
Charleston, WV 0.9 3.0 3.9
Huntington, WV 5.2 1.8 7.0
Lexington, KY 5.0 0.6 5.6
Louisville, KY 3.9 0.2 4.1

This forecast was correct. For me personally, if my snowfall prediction is within a few inches of the actual snowfall, I’m quite happy. In this case, I said 2 inches and both Charleston and Louisville were within 2.1 inches of my expectations. So I’m pretty satisfied with that result. Huntington and Lexington however, were a bit higher than anticipated. By the way, Lexington’s 5.0 on Monday broke a record for February 15th that was held since 1993 when they had 4 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 21-3 87.5%
NYS 10-2 83.33%
World 11-1 91.67%

Another 2 for 2 forecast and the percentage continues to inch toward the 90% goal. I need the next 6 forecasts to be correct to reach the mark. But it isn’t good enough to just get there, I have to finish there. I believe a good stopping point for this season will be the 20th forecast, so it would be another 8 forecasts for the 2009-2010 snow season.

Have a great night everyone!

Since the latest Stump the Weather Chump involves snow for the Golden Snowball Cities for the weekend, the New York State forecast will be comparing weekend snowfall with the start of the work week.

At least one of Golden Snowball cities will have more snow total for the weekend than for Monday and Tuesday.

It’s a little bit of a blind forecast since the weekend totals are obviously unknown at this point. For the forecast to be correct the 48 hour total for Saturday and Sunday must be greater than the 48 hour total for Monday and Tuesday in at least one of the GSB cities.

The World forecast involves Kentucky and West Virginia.

At least half of the cities used for verification in Kentucky and West Virginia will total 2 inches or more of snow for Monday and Tuesday.

There are four cities involved in this: Charleston and Huntington, WV and Lexington and Louisville, KY. For the forecast to be correct, 2 or more of them must total at least 2 inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend everyone!