For the New York State forecast, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have above freezing temperatures for either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the high temperatures for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.
| New York State High Temperatures | ||
|---|---|---|
| City | Monday | Tuesday |
| GSB Cities with high temperatures within above freezing: 5 | ||
| Albany | 42 | 45 |
| Binghamton | 35 | 39 |
| Buffalo | 36 | 36 |
| Rochester | 37 | 38 |
| Syracuse | 37 | 40 |
All five were above freezing, so the forecast was correct. Albany was the hot spot to be among the five, as both days high temperatures were well into the 40s. Buffalo was the only one within 5 degrees of freezing on both days.
For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 3 out of 5 New England NWS stations would have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the NWS snowfall reports.
| New England Snowfall | ||
|---|---|---|
| City | Monday | Tuesday |
| Cities with measurable snowfall: 2 | ||
| Bridgeport, CT | None | None |
| Boston, MA | 0.2 | None |
| Hartford, CT | None | None |
| Providence, RI | Trace | Trace |
| Worcester, MA | 0.5 | None |
The streak has come to an end, unfortunately. None of the five had measurable snowfall on Tuesday, and only 2 of them had 0.1 or more on Monday. That means only 2 had measurable snowfall on either day. Providence was the only one to have some sort of snowfall on both days, but each was just a trace.
| Golden SnowCast Results | ||
|---|---|---|
| Region | Record | Percentage |
| Overall | 24-4 | 85.71% |
| NYS | 12-2 | 85.71% |
| World | 12-2 | 85.71% |
This week was a split, so the percentage went down a little bit. The New York State and World forecasts now have the same percentage, just over 85%. If my plan to have 20 forecasts holds up, there is no room for error to reach the 90% target.
Have a great rest of the week!
For now, part of what I’d like to do when I’m done with my course is to have a ranking of the cities that are short of the threshold, but do have National Weather Service reports. I’d also use reports from stations that aren’t used on our official listing, like Dulles for Washington, DC. I figure it could be similar to the former WOW contest on the Golden Snowball site.
