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Golden SnowCast Forecast 16 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 21, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the five Golden Snowball cities would have warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with warmer high temperatures on Saturday: 2
Albany 68 70
Binghamton 63 65
Buffalo 53 48
Rochester 65 51
Syracuse 64 56

Albany and Binghamton pulled through and the forecast is correct. A pretty substantial drop occured in Rochester, high temperatures were almost 15 degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. All the other cities had a single digit difference in high temperatures.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least one of the chosen cities in Colorado would have more snow on Friday than at least one of the chosen cities in Wisconsin would have on Saturday. The table below shows snowfall amounts in Colorado and Wisconsin for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Colorado and Wisconsin Snowfall
City Friday Saturday
Colorado cities with more snow: 3
Colorado Springs, CO 0.9 None
Denver, CO 1.7 None
Pueblo, CO 2.2 None
Green Bay, WI Trace None
Madison, WI 1.1 0.7
Milwaukee, WI Trace 0.8

The lowest of the Wisconsin cities was Green Bay, getting no snowfall on Saturday. All three Colorado cities had snowfall on Friday, so this forecast is correct. As it turns out, all three of the Colorado cities had more snow on Friday than any of the Wisconsin cities did on Saturday. As an interesting note, Madison had more snow on Friday than Colorado Springs did, and a higher two day total than either Colorado Springs or Denver.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 28-4 87.5%
NYS 14-2 87.5%
World 14-2 87.5%

Both forecasts were correct and the quest for 90% continues. The plan is to go up to four more forecasts. If I don’t have any more bye weeks, the end of this season’s Golden SnowCast should be in mid-April. I’m thinking about changing things up for next season, going toward more of a targeted scoring system (the closer to actual results the forecast is, the more points received), and adding a longer range forecast. More details on that will likely be given either toward the end of this season, or the beginning of the 2010-11 campaign.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 17, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

First, a quick review on how the Golden SnowCast works. In each forecast post, I make two predictions, one for New York State (home of the Golden Snowball contest) and one for anywhere else in the World (most often somewhere in the USA). The idea is to make forecasts with some certainty to them. To achieve this, there will be no waffle words like “chance of” in any of the predictions. The goal is 90% accuracy by the end of the season.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

Spring officially arrives on Saturday, so I thought it would be a good idea to have some comparisons in my predictions this time.

Up first, as always, is the New York State outlook. Once again, it involves temperatures, but this time, it’s a look at the last day of Winter and the first day of Spring.

At least one of the Golden Snowball Cities will have warmer Saturday highs than Friday highs.

A cold front will be moving into the area on Saturday, which complicated this forecast. I initially said a majority would have warmer temperatures on Saturday, but now my confidence in that has shrunk. If at least one of the five GSB cities has warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday, this forecast will be correct.

While there is warming in New York State, there is still signs of Winter in the United States. The World forecast compares snow totals for cities in Colorado and Wisconsin.

At least one of the 3 chosen Colorado cities will have more snow on Friday than one or more of the 3 selected Wisconsin cities receive on Saturday.

The cities used for verifying this forecast are Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo in Colorado and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin. If any one of the Colorado cities has more snow on Friday than any one of the Wisconsin cities receives on Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone!

Snowiest US Cities Pop 100,000 Updated 3/15/10

Posted by Patrick on March 15, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , .

I just did an update on all of the cities. Not much change in the top 10 other than Baltimore had a correction to their totals and lost a little. Don’t ya hate when that happens. No doubt it’s been a dry spell as far as snow goes with only a handful or so adding to their snow totals. Here in the Syracuse and CNY area the temps are looking to stay in the 50′s or close to it for several days. I’m still not convinced that we’re all done with the snow. These are what I call the teaser days of winter which always make us think about Spring but then we get hit with some more snow. Of course I’ll take the sunny and 50 degree weather while it’s here ;)

As to all of the posts about Flagstaff, Arizona. I know that you’re getting some decent amount of snow and if it wasn’t for the 50 degree weather here in the North East I would probably be jealous. As PSUSyr5 mentioned this contest is for cities with a population of 100,000 or more. Nothing against the smaller cities but that’s just the way it is. The same with Marquette, Mich who always gets hit good. Ok, maybe we can put Marquette in seeing how they are a Big East team :) I’m kidding but both cities should be mentioned and you are now. Just a note that the chances are there are several other smaller cities with more snow than you and all of the bigger cities. Fulton, NY is just one city that comes to mind and they are having just a so-so season.. http://www.tsforecast.com/seasonalsnowfall.html

Have a Great Week All!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 15 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 14, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I had two predictions involving high temperatures for the Golden Snowball cities on either Thursday or Friday. All of them were to be at least 5 degrees over, and one of them would be 10 or more above, average. The table below shows Thursday and Friday’s average and recorded highs, according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Thursday Average/Recorded Friday Average/Recorded
GSB Cities with high temperatures 10 above average: 5
Albany 42/51 43/53
Binghamton 39/57 39/45
Buffalo 41/61 41/54
Rochester 41/61 41/51
Syracuse 41/57 42/50

Turns out, they all reached 10+ above average on at least one day, so the forecast is correct. In most cities, the difference decreased on Friday, Albany’s was the only one to increase. Buffalo and Rochester were both 20 above average on Thursday. A very mild couple of days indeed.

For the World forecast, I believed that on either Thursday or Friday, at least one of five selected cities in Maryland and Pennsylvania would have at least a half of an inch of rain. The table below shows precipitation amounts according to the National Weather Service.

Maryland and Pennsylvania Rainfall
City Thursday Friday
Cities with .5 inches of rain or more: 2
Allentown, PA None 0.28
Baltimore, MD None 0.98
Erie, PA None 0.03
Philadelphia, PA Trace 0.54
Pittsburgh, PA 0.02 0.24

Baltimore and Philadelphia surpassed the 0.5 mark on Friday, so the forecast is correct. Only Pittsburgh had measurable precipitation on Thursday, while Erie had just a few hundredths of an inch on Friday. For most of the cities highlighted, it was a very wet way to end the work week.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 26-4 86.67%
NYS 13-2 86.67%
World 13-2 86.67%

Both forecasts are correct, and the quest for 90% remains in tact. The next 5 weeks need to be prefect to get to the milestone I set at the beginning of the season. The past five forecasts were almost perfect, going 9 for 10. The forecast 14′s snowfall prediction for southern New England brought the 2nd miss on the World side. The only truly terrible outlook remains forecast 4′s snowfall amounts for Pennsylvania.

Happy pi Day everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 15

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 9, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Last week was my bye week. Let’s see if the week off helps me with my predictions, or if it will lead to rusty picks.

It’s a bit of a warm stretch now in the upstate New York region, so the New York State forecast involves a temperature forecast for the GSB cities.

All of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures 5 degrees above average, with at least one city topping average highs by at least 10 degrees, on either Thursday or Friday.

It’s one of the rare forecasts where there are two standards going on at once. First off, all five of the GSB cities must be 5 degrees above average on either day. In addition, at least one of those cities must be above average by 10 degrees or more on either Thursday or Friday. These do not have to occur on the same day for the forecast to be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a rain prediction for Maryland and Pennsylvania.

At least one of the five major reporting stations in Maryland and Pennsylvania will receive a half an inch or more of rain on either Thursday or Friday.

The five reporting stations that will be used are Baltimore, MD, and Pennsylvania’s Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If one of these five cities report at least 0.5 inches of rain on either Thursday or Friday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 14 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 3, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have above freezing temperatures for either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the high temperatures for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Monday Tuesday
GSB Cities with high temperatures within above freezing: 5
Albany 42 45
Binghamton 35 39
Buffalo 36 36
Rochester 37 38
Syracuse 37 40

All five were above freezing, so the forecast was correct. Albany was the hot spot to be among the five, as both days high temperatures were well into the 40s. Buffalo was the only one within 5 degrees of freezing on both days.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 3 out of 5 New England NWS stations would have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the NWS snowfall reports.

New England Snowfall
City Monday Tuesday
Cities with measurable snowfall: 2
Bridgeport, CT None None
Boston, MA 0.2 None
Hartford, CT None None
Providence, RI Trace Trace
Worcester, MA 0.5 None

The streak has come to an end, unfortunately. None of the five had measurable snowfall on Tuesday, and only 2 of them had 0.1 or more on Monday. That means only 2 had measurable snowfall on either day. Providence was the only one to have some sort of snowfall on both days, but each was just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 24-4 85.71%
NYS 12-2 85.71%
World 12-2 85.71%

This week was a split, so the percentage went down a little bit. The New York State and World forecasts now have the same percentage, just over 85%. If my plan to have 20 forecasts holds up, there is no room for error to reach the 90% target.

Have a great rest of the week!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 14

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 27, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

This week brought the first real storm to the Golden Snowball cities. A few snow records were broken for either Thursday or Friday in a majority of the GSB cities (Binghamton, Rochester and Syracuse). The roads were in pretty bad shape on Thursday night and I couldn’t get to work. It took me about a half an hour to go 2 miles, at which point I decided to call in and let them know I wouldn’t be able to be there. So I’d rather not deal with snow in the area for a little while. That includes forecasts, so the New York State forecast will go with a temperature outlook to start the work week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have above freezing high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

I feel better already! It’s not a snow forecast, and involves temperatures being above freezing. I’ll take it at this point. For the forecast to be correct, high temperatures must be above 32 degrees F in at least 3 out of 5 GSB cities on Monday and Tuesday. For a little clarification, it must be the same 3 this time.

The world forecast involves snow for the southern New England area.

At least half of the five major reporting stations in southern New England will have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday.

I had a hard time finding an area to forecast, and an even harder time figuring out snowfall amounts. So, I’m defaulting to the “measurable snowfall” forecast. The five cities that will be used for verification are Boston and Worcester in Massachusetts, Bridgeport and Hartford in Connecticut and Providence, RI. If three out of the five get at least a tenth of an inch on either Monday or Tuesday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 13 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 25, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that all five Golden Snowball cities would be within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Sunday Average/Reported Monday Average/Reported
GSB Cities with temperatures within 5 degrees of average: 5
Albany 36/35 36/40
Binghamton 32/34 33/37
Buffalo 35/33 35/33
Rochester 34/34 35/34
Syracuse 35/29 35/40

All five were within 5 degrees on Monday, so the forecast is correct. Syracuse was the only one to not be within 5 on both days as Sunday’s high was 6 below average. Rochester was spot on for Sunday, as their high temperature was exactly the average temperature of 34.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 2 of the 6 big cities of Illinois, Kansas and Missouri would have at least a half inch of snow total for Sunday and Monday. Below is a table showing snowfall for each day as reported by the National Weather Service.

Illinois, Kansas, Missouri Snowfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with half an inch or more total: 4
Chicago, IL 2.0 1.1
Rockford, IL 2.5 0.7
Topeka, KS 3.5 None
Wichita, KS 0.1 Trace
Kansas City, MO 5.1 None
St. Louis, MO None None

Four out of the six cities had over a half of an inch, so this is correct. St. Louis was the only city to not have snow on either day but most of the others went over the 0.5 inch total on one day. In fact, Kansas City’s 5.1 inches on February 21st broke their previous record of 3.6 set in 1997.

It seems to me that I keep lowballing snowfall amounts this season. That’ll be something for me to work on in the future.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 23-3 88.46%
NYS 11-2 84.62%
World 12-1 92.31%

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is almost 1.5% away from the goal. If the next two week’s forecasts are correct, 90% will be reached. I’d like to get the next forecast up by tomorrow. Unfortunately, work and online class kept me busy earlier this week so I couldn’t do a forecast for the current snow storm in New York State.

Have a great end to the week everyone, and remember snow means SLOW!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 13

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 19, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

It’s been a PSUSyr5 marathon to end the work week. Wednesday was the results of the GSC Forecast 12 and yesterday was the outcome of StWC Volume 2. Today is the new GSC forecast. You all deserve a break from me for the weekend. :)

It’s back to a temperature outlook for the Golden Snowball cities in this New York State forecast.

All five Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Sunday or Monday.

This time, a majority is not good enough. The last time I did that was the first NYS forecast, which featured none of the five getting measurable snowfall. Binghamton ruined that one. For the forecast to be correct, all GSB cities need to have their high temperatures be no more than 5 above or below their average highs on Sunday or Monday.

Illinois, Kansas and Missouri are the featured areas for the World forecast.

At least one third of the bigger cities in Illinois, Kansas and Missouri will total at least half of an inch of snow for Sunday and Monday.

There will be six cities involved in this forecast, 2 of the bigger cities from each of the three states. They are Chicago and Rockford from Illinois, Topeka and Wichita in Kansas and Missouri’s Kansas City and St. Louis. For the forecast to be correct, at least 2 of these six cities must have 0.5 inches or more combined snowfall on Sunday and Monday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2 Outcome

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 18, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

Girly Checks Personal Bank Checks
On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday. I believed that Syracuse would be the only one to do so. So if Syracuse came out on top of Baltimore, and they were the only ones of the five GSB cities to over take Baltimore, that would be my first win in Stump the Weather Chump.

The table below shows the snowfall totals for Baltimore and each of the GSB cities, as reported by the National Weather Service with the help of some math.

Season Snow Totals
City February 14th
Forecast outcome: NOT STUMPED
Baltimore 79.9
Albany 22.4
Binghamton 52.3
Buffalo 64.9
Rochester 65.3
Syracuse 80.0

By the slimmest of margins, I hit this one. Both Stump the Weather Chump volumes have been very close: missed by one day in the first one, hit by 0.1 inches on this one.

Sorry, Patrick, you did not stump the weather chump.

Stump The Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 50%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 1

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.