new york weather

All posts tagged new york weather

Golden SnowCast Forecast 12 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 17, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

By tomorrow, I should have a solid idea as to the results of the latest edition of Stump the Weather Chump. I believe there was a correction made (perhaps having to do with missing data from the weekend, or with it being midway through the month at the time the correction was made, or any other reason) on Monday. Now on to the Golden SnowCast results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the Golden Snowball cities would have more total snowfall on Saturday and Sunday than on Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the two totals, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snow Totals
City Saturday and Sunday Monday and Tuesday
GSB Cities with more snow on the weekend: 3
Albany 0.1 5.3
Binghamton 0.6 2.4
Buffalo 1.6 0.2
Rochester 0.9 0.5
Syracuse 2.2 1.6

Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each had more snow on the weekend, so the forecast is correct. It is interesting to see how close the totals were for Rochester and Syracuse, and how far apart they are for Albany. I also find it interesting that each city, except for Rochester had over an inch of snow on at least one of the 2 day periods.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Kentucky and West Virginia will have a total of 2 inches of snow or more for Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the snowfall amounts for each day and the total, as reported by the NWS.

Snow Totals in Kentucky and West Virginia
City Monday Tuesday Total
Cities with 2 or more inches total: 4
Charleston, WV 0.9 3.0 3.9
Huntington, WV 5.2 1.8 7.0
Lexington, KY 5.0 0.6 5.6
Louisville, KY 3.9 0.2 4.1

This forecast was correct. For me personally, if my snowfall prediction is within a few inches of the actual snowfall, I’m quite happy. In this case, I said 2 inches and both Charleston and Louisville were within 2.1 inches of my expectations. So I’m pretty satisfied with that result. Huntington and Lexington however, were a bit higher than anticipated. By the way, Lexington’s 5.0 on Monday broke a record for February 15th that was held since 1993 when they had 4 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 21-3 87.5%
NYS 10-2 83.33%
World 11-1 91.67%

Another 2 for 2 forecast and the percentage continues to inch toward the 90% goal. I need the next 6 forecasts to be correct to reach the mark. But it isn’t good enough to just get there, I have to finish there. I believe a good stopping point for this season will be the 20th forecast, so it would be another 8 forecasts for the 2009-2010 snow season.

Have a great night everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 12

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 13, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Since the latest Stump the Weather Chump involves snow for the Golden Snowball Cities for the weekend, the New York State forecast will be comparing weekend snowfall with the start of the work week.

At least one of Golden Snowball cities will have more snow total for the weekend than for Monday and Tuesday.

It’s a little bit of a blind forecast since the weekend totals are obviously unknown at this point. For the forecast to be correct the 48 hour total for Saturday and Sunday must be greater than the 48 hour total for Monday and Tuesday in at least one of the GSB cities.

The World forecast involves Kentucky and West Virginia.

At least half of the cities used for verification in Kentucky and West Virginia will total 2 inches or more of snow for Monday and Tuesday.

There are four cities involved in this: Charleston and Huntington, WV and Lexington and Louisville, KY. For the forecast to be correct, 2 or more of them must total at least 2 inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 12, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

Something tells me it won’t be Albany or Binghamton, so those are eliminated right off the bat. So, now it’s down to 3: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.

As of the early morning NWS update, Baltimore has 79.9 inches for the season. It looks like they will stay there by the end of Sunday. Buffalo has 63.1, Rochester has 63.9 and Syracuse has 76.1. I don’t believe either Buffalo or Rochester will get over 16 inches of snow this weekend, so if any of the GSB cities will move ahead of Baltimore, it would be Syracuse which needs 3.8 inches to tie.

If Syracuse is going to get 3.8+ inches, it’ll be from Lake Effect. That will likely occur from Saturday afternoon through Monday. It’s hard to believe that a LES storm lasting that long won’t drop at least 3.8 inches in a given area.

Syracuse will be the only Golden Snowball city to have more snow than Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

If you believe you can Stump The Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 11, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , , .

With all the excitement with the snow storms, I forgot to post my results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that one of the New York City reporting stations would have more total snow for the weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities. The table below shows the snowfall for the NYC reporting stations and the GSB cities on Saturday and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Weekend Snowfall in New York State
City Saturday Sunday
GSB Cities with less snowfall than NYC: 5
Central Park Trace None
JFK 1.6 None
La Guardia Trace None
Albany None None
Binghamton None 0.4
Buffalo Trace Trace
Rochester 1.0 Trace
Syracuse None Trace

JFK had 1.6 total, and all the GSB cities had an inch or lower. So this forecast was correct. Interesting to note the difference between the 3 NYC stations, Central Park and La Guardia both having a trace while JFK had over an inch. Binghamton was the only city to report measurable snowfall on Sunday.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 1 of Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC would have at least 10 inches of snow for the weekend. While it may look obvious that this held up, and wasn’t all that close, remember that a portion of the snow fell on Friday. The table below shows the snow totals for Saturday and Sunday for those cities, according to NWS.

Mid-Atlantic Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with 10 inches or more: 2
Baltimore, MD 17.0 None
Newark, NJ 0.4 None
Philadelphia, PA 22.0 None
Pittsburgh, PA 9.7 Trace
Washington, DC 9.1 None

With Baltimore and Philadelphia over the threshold, this forecast was correct. Pittsburgh and Washington, DC almost broke through the 10 inch plateau as well. All but Newark broke snowfall records for February 6th. In case you were wondering, Newark’s record for February 6th was set in 1978 with 17.9 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 19-3 86.36%
NYS 9-2 81.82%
World 10-1 90.91%

Another two for two forecast, and I’m inching toward the 90% goal. I have changed the table a little bit, now showing the percentage for each region, in addition to the overall. Forecast 12 should be up tomorrow. Lately, Thursdays and Fridays have been days when I’m less busy, which is why I’ve done forecasts for the weekend, or days close to it, in the recent weeks.

Have a great end of the work week!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 11

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 4, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , , .

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a comparison with New York City and the Golden Snowball cities.

New York City will have more snowfall this weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities.

I will be using the totals from Saturday and Sunday for verification. There are three NYC area reporting stations: Central Park, JFK and La Guardia. If one of those has more total snow for the weekend than either Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo Rochester or Syracuse, the forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look to the Mid-Atlantic region.

At least one of the five bigger Mid-Atlantic cities will have 10 inches or more of snow this weekend.

The five cities that will be used for this are Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC. If one ore more of those cities total at least 10 inches of snow for Saturday and Sunday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 10 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 3, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Just a heads up that the top 10 snowiest cities snow totals have been updated tonight and we’ll try to get a full update in tomorrow :)

OK, For the New York State prediction, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have temperatures below freezing on Monday. As a side note, I was torn between “freezing” and “average” and went with freezing to give myself a little more leeway. The table below shows the reported high temperature and the average high temperature for February 1st.

Monday Highs in New York State
City Reported High Average High
Cities with high temperatures below freezing: 5
Albany 28 32
Binghamton 27 28
Buffalo 23 31
Rochester 26 31
Syracuse 26 31

As it turns out, it didn’t matter which comparison I used, average or freezing. All five cities were below their average highs, which also means all five were below freezing. Only Binghamton was within one degree of their average high. All the others were at least 4 below average.

For the World forecast, I said that at least 3 of the 5 bigger cities in Iowa and Nebraska would get measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the reported snowfall on Monday and compares it to last year.

Iowa and Nebraska Snowfall
City Reported Snowfall 2010 Reported Snowfall 2009
Cities with measurable snowfall: At least 4
Cedar Rapids, IA Missing None
Davenport, IA 1.5 None
Des Moines, IA 1.4 None
Lincoln, NE 0.2 0.1
Omaha, NE 0.2 Trace

This one proved to be true. Cedar Rapids’ missing data does not come into play as the other 4 received measurable snowfall. Interesting that last year, the Nebraska cities were the only ones to get any snowfall, and this year the Iowa cities that have data are the 2 that report over an inch.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 85%
NYS 8-2
World 9-1
Overall 17-3

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is at 85%. The past 5 weeks ended up being perfect, going 10 for 10 in that time period. The only truly terrible forecast remains the Pennsylvania snow prediction from Week 4. That also happens to be the only miss on the World side. On the NYS side, the 2 misses were from Week 1, as Binghamton ruined the all cities with no measurable snow forecast, and Week 4 with only 2 cities matching the target. The other forecasts were either correct, even if the threshold was a little off the mark.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 10

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 29, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

The end of January is near, with the weekend being the last few days of the month. It’s out with the old and in with the new for the New York State forecast. It involves a temperature outlook for first day of February.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures below freezing on Monday.

New York State started the work week with temperatures in the 50s, but it’s a much different story this time. The Golden Snowball cities have been in a big chill for the past few days. While that will ease somewhat on Monday, temperatures will still be below freezing. A correct forecast will have at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities below 32 degrees on Monday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at part of the plain states. But don’t worry, they are trying to redecorate. Poor attempt a humor, my apologies.

At least half of the five biggest cities in Iowa and Nebraska will receive measurable snowfall on Monday.

The five cities used for verification will be Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Davenport in Iowa and Nebraska’s Lincoln and Omaha. At least 3 of them need to have a tenth of an inch or more of snowfall for the forecast to be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1 Outcome

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 28, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , .

An Update Coming Soon! We are updating all the city snow totals today so check back later to see who is winning and how your city is doing.

OK, On January 18th, an anonymous poster on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know on what date a majority of the GSB cities would have 4 more inches of snow than the given date. While out of my league, I went for it. My target date was February 1st, but I gave myself a 3 day window. So, if the day when at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities had 4 more inches than on January 19th was between January 29 and February 4th, that would have been a win for me.

Since I’m giving the outcome before that window, and that it’s the only one in Volume 1, it’s pretty clear what the outcome of the forecast is.

Golden Snowball Snow Totals
City Afternoon January 19 Afternoon January 28
Forecast outcome: STUMPED
Albany 19.8 20.2
Binghamton 39.3 40.5
Buffalo 48.7 59.8
Rochester 47.9 52.5
Syracuse 58.2 63.0

Yes, I missed it by 1 day. That is some of the difficulty with long range forecasts such as this. I’m actually somewhat surprised my range ended up being as close as it was. But close is not good enough here.

Congratulations, anonymous poster, you stumped the weather chump!

Stump the Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome Total
Stump Rate: 100%
Stumped 1
Not Stumped 0

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump like the anonymous poster did, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 9 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 27, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have their Monday high temperatures be before 8am. The table below shows the high temperature and when it was recorded by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs in New York State
City High Time
Cities with high temperatures before 8am: 3
Albany 56 2:53pm
Binghamton 52 9:41am
Buffalo 49 12:38am
Rochester 56 5:02am
Syracuse 57 7:16am

This prediction was correct. Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse all high high temperatures recorded before 8am. As an interesting note, Buffalo had the earliest recorded and lowest temperature. However, Albany had the latest recorded but was not the highest temperature.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 2 of the 3 bigger cities in the Dakotas would have an inch or more of snow from Sunday to Monday. The table below shows the snow fall for each day, as reported by the National Weather Service, and the two day total.

Dakota Snowfall
City Sunday Monday Total
Cities with snow totals of an inch or more: 3
Fargo, ND Trace 2.2 2.2
Grand Forks, ND Trace 1.4 1.4
Sioux Falls, SD 0.9 1.0 1.9

This forecast turned out to be correct. I expected there to be more of an split on both days like Sioux Falls had with a tenth of an inch difference between the 2 days. However, Fargo and Grand Forks got over an inch on Monday while receiving no accumulation on Sunday. I admit, I was a little worried about my forecast after Sunday, but it pulled through.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS 7-2
World 8-1
Overall 15-3

Another 2 for 2 week, and the percentage continues to move toward the 90% goal. If that 83.33% looks familiar, it’s because that’s the exact percentage after week 3, when I was 5-1 overall. After reaching 83.33% the first time, the 4th forecast was a complete failure, going 0-2. I will try to avoid that with the next forecast.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 9

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 22, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

It’s been a pretty quiet time for snow in the Golden Snowball cities. The weekend appears to be quite warm and dry for this time of year, but then comes Monday. The New York State forecast involves the time in which the high temperature will be recorded.

The high temperature on Monday will occur before 8am for a majority of Golden Snowball cities.

Sunday night into Monday, cold air will take hold of the region. So whatever the high temperature ends up as on Monday will be very early in the day. For the prediction to be correct, the time when the high temperature is recorded must be before 8am Monday in at least 3 of the 5 cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look into snow for the Dakotas.

At least two out of three reporting stations in North Dakota and South Dakota will have at least an inch of total snow accumulation Sunday and Monday.

The three reporting stations used will be Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota and South Dakota’s Sioux Falls. If at least two of them receive an inch of snow or more from Sunday to Monday, the prediction will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!