For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the five Golden Snowball cities would have warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

Albany and Binghamton pulled through and the forecast is correct. A pretty substantial drop occured in Rochester, high temperatures were almost 15 degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. All the other cities had a single digit difference in high temperatures.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least one of the chosen cities in Colorado would have more snow on Friday than at least one of the chosen cities in Wisconsin would have on Saturday. The table below shows snowfall amounts in Colorado and Wisconsin for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

The lowest of the Wisconsin cities was Green Bay, getting no snowfall on Saturday. All three Colorado cities had snowfall on Friday, so this forecast is correct. As it turns out, all three of the Colorado cities had more snow on Friday than any of the Wisconsin cities did on Saturday. As an interesting note, Madison had more snow on Friday than Colorado Springs did, and a higher two day total than either Colorado Springs or Denver.

Both forecasts were correct and the quest for 90% continues. The plan is to go up to four more forecasts. If I don’t have any more bye weeks, the end of this season’s Golden SnowCast should be in mid-April. I’m thinking about changing things up for next season, going toward more of a targeted scoring system (the closer to actual results the forecast is, the more points received), and adding a longer range forecast. More details on that will likely be given either toward the end of this season, or the beginning of the 2010-11 campaign.

Have a great week everyone!

First, a quick review on how the Golden SnowCast works. In each forecast post, I make two predictions, one for New York State (home of the Golden Snowball contest) and one for anywhere else in the World (most often somewhere in the USA). The idea is to make forecasts with some certainty to them. To achieve this, there will be no waffle words like “chance of” in any of the predictions. The goal is 90% accuracy by the end of the season.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

Spring officially arrives on Saturday, so I thought it would be a good idea to have some comparisons in my predictions this time.

Up first, as always, is the New York State outlook. Once again, it involves temperatures, but this time, it’s a look at the last day of Winter and the first day of Spring.

At least one of the Golden Snowball Cities will have warmer Saturday highs than Friday highs.

A cold front will be moving into the area on Saturday, which complicated this forecast. I initially said a majority would have warmer temperatures on Saturday, but now my confidence in that has shrunk. If at least one of the five GSB cities has warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday, this forecast will be correct.

While there is warming in New York State, there is still signs of Winter in the United States. The World forecast compares snow totals for cities in Colorado and Wisconsin.

At least one of the 3 chosen Colorado cities will have more snow on Friday than one or more of the 3 selected Wisconsin cities receive on Saturday.

The cities used for verifying this forecast are Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo in Colorado and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin. If any one of the Colorado cities has more snow on Friday than any one of the Wisconsin cities receives on Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone!