For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of their Thursday high temperature. The table below compares Thursday’s highs with Saturday’s and Sunday’s lows as reported by the National Weather Service.
| New York State Temperatures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| City | Thursday’s High | Saturday’s Low | Sunday’s Low |
| Cities with weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high: 2 | |||
| Albany | 22 | 8 | 12 |
| Binghamton | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| Buffalo | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| Rochester | 22 | 14 | 21 |
| Syracuse | 22 | 8 | 15 |
This one was a miss due to Saturday’s lows. Albany and Syracuse still were in the colder air early Saturday. That along with Rochester’s 8 degree difference proved to be this forecast’s doom. As a note, all of Saturday’s lows occurred very early in the day, with Albany’s low, the latest of the cities, being reported just after 6:30 am. Three out of the five cities were in range on Sunday, but at that point, the forecast was already a bust.
For the World forecast, I predicted that the four major cities in Pennsylvania will have snowfall range between a trace and a half an inch on Saturday. The table below shows how much snow each city received in the day, and compares it to the record for the day.
| December 19th Pennsylvania Snow | ||
|---|---|---|
| City | Previous Record | Saturday Snowfall |
| Cities with snowfall between trace and half an inch: 0 | ||
| Allentown | 8.6 (1995) | 5.4 |
| Erie | Not Available | 1.3 |
| Philadelphia | 9.2 (1945) | 21.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 4.8 (1982) | 4.7 |
This one was a complete disaster. On Thursday morning, the idea was the storm would just graze the PA cities. However, on Thursday night/Friday morning (depending on what time zone you are in and what you consider night and morning), I realized that was not to be the case. At least I knew in advance my forecast would be wrong…now if I could only have noticed that before I made that forecast, I would have been in better shape. 
As an interesting note, Philadelphia’s December 19th record held for over 60 years was broken on Saturday, shattering it by almost a foot.
So, it was an 0-2 forecast for the week. Last week, I wondered if maybe it was time for a change with the forecasts. This week, I missed both. I guess that answers my question.
| Golden SnowCast Results | |
|---|---|
| Region | Record |
| Overall Percentage: 62.5% | |
| NYS | 2-2 |
| World | 3-1 |
| Overall | 5-3 |
Missing both forecasts puts the percentage in the 60s. Now to reach my goal of 90%, I need to get 22 straight predictions (11 weeks worth) correct. As we’re entering the heart of the snow season, I doubt I’ll be able to reach the 90% goal. At this point, I’m just trying to avoid going back to 50% for the season.
Have a great week everyone!
Well at least you only missed Philly by 20 1/2 inches. Not too bad I suppose Stephen
Sad thing is, I was joking with a friend on how I should have said “half a yard” instead of “half an inch” and even that wouldn’t have been good enough either. I just should avoid forecasting PA weather whenever possible.
Our total was about 14 inches (estimated – I never took a final measurement).