For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of their Thursday high temperature. The table below compares Thursday’s highs with Saturday’s and Sunday’s lows as reported by the National Weather Service.
|New York State Temperatures|
|City||Thursday’s High||Saturday’s Low||Sunday’s Low|
|Cities with weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high: 2|
This one was a miss due to Saturday’s lows. Albany and Syracuse still were in the colder air early Saturday. That along with Rochester’s 8 degree difference proved to be this forecast’s doom. As a note, all of Saturday’s lows occurred very early in the day, with Albany’s low, the latest of the cities, being reported just after 6:30 am. Three out of the five cities were in range on Sunday, but at that point, the forecast was already a bust.
For the World forecast, I predicted that the four major cities in Pennsylvania will have snowfall range between a trace and a half an inch on Saturday. The table below shows how much snow each city received in the day, and compares it to the record for the day.
|December 19th Pennsylvania Snow|
|City||Previous Record||Saturday Snowfall|
|Cities with snowfall between trace and half an inch: 0|
This one was a complete disaster. On Thursday morning, the idea was the storm would just graze the PA cities. However, on Thursday night/Friday morning (depending on what time zone you are in and what you consider night and morning), I realized that was not to be the case. At least I knew in advance my forecast would be wrong…now if I could only have noticed that before I made that forecast, I would have been in better shape. As an interesting note, Philadelphia’s December 19th record held for over 60 years was broken on Saturday, shattering it by almost a foot.
So, it was an 0-2 forecast for the week. Last week, I wondered if maybe it was time for a change with the forecasts. This week, I missed both. I guess that answers my question.
|Golden SnowCast Results|
|Overall Percentage: 62.5%|
Missing both forecasts puts the percentage in the 60s. Now to reach my goal of 90%, I need to get 22 straight predictions (11 weeks worth) correct. As we’re entering the heart of the snow season, I doubt I’ll be able to reach the 90% goal. At this point, I’m just trying to avoid going back to 50% for the season.
Have a great week everyone!