The Golden SnowCast

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 10 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 3, 2010
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Just a heads up that the top 10 snowiest cities snow totals have been updated tonight and we’ll try to get a full update in tomorrow :)

OK, For the New York State prediction, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have temperatures below freezing on Monday. As a side note, I was torn between “freezing” and “average” and went with freezing to give myself a little more leeway. The table below shows the reported high temperature and the average high temperature for February 1st.

Monday Highs in New York State
City Reported High Average High
Cities with high temperatures below freezing: 5
Albany 28 32
Binghamton 27 28
Buffalo 23 31
Rochester 26 31
Syracuse 26 31

As it turns out, it didn’t matter which comparison I used, average or freezing. All five cities were below their average highs, which also means all five were below freezing. Only Binghamton was within one degree of their average high. All the others were at least 4 below average.

For the World forecast, I said that at least 3 of the 5 bigger cities in Iowa and Nebraska would get measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the reported snowfall on Monday and compares it to last year.

Iowa and Nebraska Snowfall
City Reported Snowfall 2010 Reported Snowfall 2009
Cities with measurable snowfall: At least 4
Cedar Rapids, IA Missing None
Davenport, IA 1.5 None
Des Moines, IA 1.4 None
Lincoln, NE 0.2 0.1
Omaha, NE 0.2 Trace

This one proved to be true. Cedar Rapids’ missing data does not come into play as the other 4 received measurable snowfall. Interesting that last year, the Nebraska cities were the only ones to get any snowfall, and this year the Iowa cities that have data are the 2 that report over an inch.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 85%
NYS 8-2
World 9-1
Overall 17-3

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is at 85%. The past 5 weeks ended up being perfect, going 10 for 10 in that time period. The only truly terrible forecast remains the Pennsylvania snow prediction from Week 4. That also happens to be the only miss on the World side. On the NYS side, the 2 misses were from Week 1, as Binghamton ruined the all cities with no measurable snow forecast, and Week 4 with only 2 cities matching the target. The other forecasts were either correct, even if the threshold was a little off the mark.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 10

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 29, 2010
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The end of January is near, with the weekend being the last few days of the month. It’s out with the old and in with the new for the New York State forecast. It involves a temperature outlook for first day of February.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures below freezing on Monday.

New York State started the work week with temperatures in the 50s, but it’s a much different story this time. The Golden Snowball cities have been in a big chill for the past few days. While that will ease somewhat on Monday, temperatures will still be below freezing. A correct forecast will have at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities below 32 degrees on Monday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at part of the plain states. But don’t worry, they are trying to redecorate. Poor attempt a humor, my apologies.

At least half of the five biggest cities in Iowa and Nebraska will receive measurable snowfall on Monday.

The five cities used for verification will be Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Davenport in Iowa and Nebraska’s Lincoln and Omaha. At least 3 of them need to have a tenth of an inch or more of snowfall for the forecast to be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 9 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 27, 2010
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For the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have their Monday high temperatures be before 8am. The table below shows the high temperature and when it was recorded by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs in New York State
City High Time
Cities with high temperatures before 8am: 3
Albany 56 2:53pm
Binghamton 52 9:41am
Buffalo 49 12:38am
Rochester 56 5:02am
Syracuse 57 7:16am

This prediction was correct. Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse all high high temperatures recorded before 8am. As an interesting note, Buffalo had the earliest recorded and lowest temperature. However, Albany had the latest recorded but was not the highest temperature.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 2 of the 3 bigger cities in the Dakotas would have an inch or more of snow from Sunday to Monday. The table below shows the snow fall for each day, as reported by the National Weather Service, and the two day total.

Dakota Snowfall
City Sunday Monday Total
Cities with snow totals of an inch or more: 3
Fargo, ND Trace 2.2 2.2
Grand Forks, ND Trace 1.4 1.4
Sioux Falls, SD 0.9 1.0 1.9

This forecast turned out to be correct. I expected there to be more of an split on both days like Sioux Falls had with a tenth of an inch difference between the 2 days. However, Fargo and Grand Forks got over an inch on Monday while receiving no accumulation on Sunday. I admit, I was a little worried about my forecast after Sunday, but it pulled through.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS 7-2
World 8-1
Overall 15-3

Another 2 for 2 week, and the percentage continues to move toward the 90% goal. If that 83.33% looks familiar, it’s because that’s the exact percentage after week 3, when I was 5-1 overall. After reaching 83.33% the first time, the 4th forecast was a complete failure, going 0-2. I will try to avoid that with the next forecast.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 9

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 22, 2010
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It’s been a pretty quiet time for snow in the Golden Snowball cities. The weekend appears to be quite warm and dry for this time of year, but then comes Monday. The New York State forecast involves the time in which the high temperature will be recorded.

The high temperature on Monday will occur before 8am for a majority of Golden Snowball cities.

Sunday night into Monday, cold air will take hold of the region. So whatever the high temperature ends up as on Monday will be very early in the day. For the prediction to be correct, the time when the high temperature is recorded must be before 8am Monday in at least 3 of the 5 cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look into snow for the Dakotas.

At least two out of three reporting stations in North Dakota and South Dakota will have at least an inch of total snow accumulation Sunday and Monday.

The three reporting stations used will be Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota and South Dakota’s Sioux Falls. If at least two of them receive an inch of snow or more from Sunday to Monday, the prediction will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 8 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 20, 2010
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For the New York State prediction, it was a 2 for 1 special. I believed a majority of the cities would have above freezing high temperatures and no measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures and snowfall for Monday, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs and Snowfall in New York State
City High Snowfall
Cities with high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall: 4
Albany 41 0.7
Binghamton 37 Trace
Buffalo 36 None
Rochester 37 None
Syracuse 39 Trace

Each of the five cities was above freezing. Only Albany had measurable snowfall while both Binghamton and Syracuse reported a trace. The prediction was correct. Interesting to note that Albany had the highest high temperature on Monday, yet still managed over a half inch of snow.

For the World Forecast, I believed that 2 out of the 4 big cities in Arizona and Nevada would have rain on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for the four cities.

Arizona and Nevada Rainfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with rain on either Sunday or Monday: 3
Las Vegas, NV None 0.04
Phoenix, AZ None 0.01
Reno, NV Trace 0.06
Tucson, AZ None None

This forecast was correct as well. Tucson was the only of the four not to have any rain on either day. The other three all had rain on Monday. Reno was the only one to have any sort of rain on Sunday, with just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 81.25%
NYS 6-2
World 7-1
Overall 13-3

Two more correct predictions and the percentage is back over 80%. I still have a bit of work to do to get up to 90%, as I need the next 7 weeks (14 predictions) to be perfect to reach that mark. At the very worst, I have more breathing room over 50%, as it would take 10 straight missed predictions to fall to that level.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 8

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 14, 2010
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The roads have been pretty dry for me in the past few days, and it’s not because of the plows. Temperatures have warmed up a little and snowfall has been minimal for the Golden Snowball cities, especially when compared to the end of December and start of January.

A majority of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall on Monday.

A little change of pace for this prediction. Usually the Golden SnowCast focuses on one variable, but this time it’s snow and temperatures. For the forecast to be correct, at least 3 of the cities need to have high temperatures above freezing AND have snowfall below a tenth of an inch.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Arizona and Nevada.

At least half of the four major reporting stations in Arizona and Nevada will have rain on Sunday or Monday.

Didn’t see that one coming, did you? The four reporting stations are Las Vegas and Reno, NV and Phoenix and Tucson, AZ. If at least 2 of these record rain on either Sunday or Monday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great end of the work week, and weekend, everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 7 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 11, 2010
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For the New York State forecast, it was back to the Golden Snowball cities. I predicted that a majority of the cities would not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday. The table below shows the snow totals on each day for each city, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Upstate New York Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with no measurable snowfall on either Saturday or Sunday: 4
Albany None None
Binghamton 0.2 0.2
Buffalo 0.9 Trace
Rochester 1.4 None
Syracuse 1.0 Trace

On Saturday, all but Albany received measurable snowfall. However, only Binghamton had measurable snowfall on Sunday. That’s 4 out of 5 with a trace or less on one day in the forecast period, making this a correct forecast. Of the 2 times I’ve done a “no measurable snowfall” forecast for NYS, Binghamton has been the one that has measurable snowfall. The first time was Forecast 1, which cost me a correct forecast.

For the World Forecast, I expected at least half of the 5 major reporting stations in Florida would have high temperatures at least 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for each city on each day.

Florida High Temperatures
City Saturday Average/Actual Sunday Average/Actual
Cities with high temperatures 10+ below average: 5
Jacksonville 64/37 64/44
Miami 76/63 76/48
Orlando 71/40 71/44
Tallahassee 63/38 63/41
Tampa 70/42 70/43

This one was one of those that was not close but managed to work out my way. The only one that was close to my 10 degree threshold was Miami on Saturday, at 13 below average. All the others were at least 20 below their historical average. When I made the forecast, Miami appeared to be the one that could be within single digits, so I gave myself some cushion. That cushion obviously turned out to not be necessary. Another reason for 10, is that in my eyes, if you are that far away from average (on either warmer or colder) that’s pretty extreme. So the idea was that there would be extreme cold in Florida. Little did I know that it would be far more extreme than that.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 78.57%
NYS 5-2
World 6-1
Overall 11-3

Two correct predictions, and it’s almost 80% for me on the season. This is the highest percentage I’ve had since being at 83.33% after forecast 3. Forecast 4 was the complete disaster, and I will try to avoid that again next time.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 7

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 7, 2010
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The week or so has produced a good amount of snow for most of the Golden Snowball cities. The New York State forecast will focus on snow for the GSB sites.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday.

The GSB areas look to be getting a little bit of a break from the snow over the weekend. Remember that measurable snow is a tenth of an inch or more. As long as 3 or more out of the 5 cities have either a trace or nothing, this forecast will be correct.

This year’s Orange Bowl in Miami was the coldest on record, so the World forecast will look to Florida with a temperature prediction.

At least half of the 5 major Florida reporting stations will have high temperatures 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday.

The much colder than usual temperatures appear to stay with Florida for the weekend. The 5 stations used will be Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and Tallahassee. The forecast will be correct if 3 or more of the cities listed have high temperatures 10 degrees or more below their average for both Saturday and Sunday.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 5, 2010
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Happy 2010 everyone! By now, I should be one of the last people to wish you all a Happy New Year.

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that on New Year’s Eve, at least 1 of the three New York City reporting stations would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average and low temperatures above average. The table below shows the recorded temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York City Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High/Low Recorded High/Low
Sites with above average lows and highs within 5 degrees of average: 1
Central Park 39/27 34/33
JFK Airport 40/27 33/33
La Guardia 40/28 34/34

This one was correct, with not much room to spare. All low temperatures were above average, but only Central Park had a high temperature within 5 degrees of average. It is interesting to me that both JFK and La Guardia had no variability between high and low temperatures throughout the day, and a slight change for Central Park.

For the World Forecast, I believed a majority of the other 9 biggest US cities would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on New Year’s Eve. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

US High Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High Recorded High
Cities with highs within 5 degrees of average: 6
Los Angeles, CA 66 68
Chicago, IL 30 32
Houston, TX 62 58
Phoenix, AZ 66 64
Philadelphia, PA 40 34
San Antonio, TX 62 76
Dallas, TX 54 46
San Diego, CA 65 66
San Jose, CA 57 62

This one turned out to be correct as well. San Antonio had the biggest margin of the 9, as the high temperature was 14 degrees above average for New Year’s Eve. A few cities had their highs be very close to average as Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix and San Diego were each within 2 degrees. Houston and San Jose were both within 5, making it 6 out of 9 cities within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 75%
NYS 4-2
World 5-1
Overall 9-3

It was another successful forecast and now I am at 75% for the season. This is the same percentage I was at after the 2nd batch of forecasts, when I was 3-1 overall. I still need 18 straight correct forecasts to reach my goal of 90%, but at least now I have some breathing room over 50%.

With many areas receiving snow in the past few weeks, I’m sure some of you have some great snow pictures. Why don’t you send us some? Also, let’s see if you can Stump the Weather Chump.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 29, 2009
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As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

New Year’s Eve is Thursday and as usual there will be celebrations galore. Perhaps the most famous of celebrations is in New York City’s Time Square. This week, the Golden Snowball cities will take a back seat to New York City for the New York State forecast.

At least one of the New York City reporting stations will highs within 5 degrees of average and lows above average on Thursday.

There are three National Weather Service reporting stations in the NYC area that will be used for verification: Central Park, La Guardia and JFK airports. If at least one of them has high temperatures with 5 degrees of average (above or below) and warmer than average lows for New Year’s Eve, the forecast will be correct.

For the world forecast, it’s a look at the 9 most populated cities in the US after NYC.

A majority of cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Thursday.

This is similar to this week’s NYS forecast, with the exception that low temperatures are not involved here. The nine most populated US cities other than NYC are, in order from largest to smallest, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Dallas, San Diego and San Jose. For the forecast to be correct, nine of these have their high temperatures within 5 degrees of average (high or low) on New Year’s Eve.

Happy New Year! Have a great week.