It’s March, and the top of the standings show a complete lack of Colorado cities. So, this month’s forecast will focus on them. Before that happens, though, it’s a look back at the February prediction.

February’s forecast involved the Midwest, comparing the rest of the month with the first two days. Below are the totals for the five cities in the final 26 days, with the first 2 days in parenthesis.

Chicago: 8.8 (20.2)
Detroit: 21.1 (10.6)
Kansas City: 7.3 (8.9)
Madison: 9.5 (14.3)
Milwaukee: 12.0 (17.6)

Bull’s Eye: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for all five cities.
On Target: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for three or four of the cities.
Complete Miss: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for two or fewer of the cities.

Detroit was the only one to have more snow in the final 26 days of February than the first 2, so it is an On Target forecast.

Here are the results, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

The GSG forecast was a Bull’s Eye, so as a result, the average sits at 1.25, above the goal set before the forecasts began. My intention at the beginning of the season was to make March the final SITD forecast. However, the new plan is to have this one go for the month, and in a few weeks I will post the final one. This would give me 5 forecast periods, including the one done to start the season.

Now on to this month, which focuses on Colorado. Three cities, Colorado Springs, Denver and Pueblo, are below their average snowfall for the season. While I don’t expect that to change by the end of the month, I do anticipate above average snowfall for them for March.

Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.

Here are the average snowfall marks for each city.
Colorado Springs: 9.4
Denver: 11.7
Pueblo: 6.4

Remember to check out Golden Snowball to see the March forecast there. Have a great month everyone!

Tired of winter yet? Well, if you live in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, it doesn’t matter because more snow is on the way! More details to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

The previous forecast involved snowfall for Billings, MT, Cheyenne, WY, and Salt Lake City, UT. Below are their snow totals for the 20th and 21st.

Billings: 3.7
Cheyenne: 0.4
Salt Lake City: 2.4

Bull’s Eye: All 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
On Target: 2 of the 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 1 or 0 of the 3 cities has 1-4 inches of snow.

Just missed the Bull’s Eye by 0.6 inches in Cheyenne, but On Target is fine too.

However, that’s not enough to keep me at 1.00 as it was yet another Complete Miss over at GSB. With that, I’ve fallen to 0.92 for the season. Just 4 more weeks remain for the forecasts to reach that 1.00 mark.

I need a strong finish on GSB, but it won’t mean anything if the forecasts here fall flat. Let’s end February on a happy note! Happy, that is, if you live in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania and love snow. If not, well, then, why are you on this site anyway?! I’m sure residents in that area already know about the storm coming their way, so let’s just get on with the forecast, focused on cities Cleveland and Toledo, OH as well as Erie, PA!

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 6 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend, .
On Target: All three get at least 6 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: One of the three gets less than 6 inches of snow this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone, and be sure to check out the forecast over on Golden Snowball!

I wanted to get these forecasts done on Friday, but there were some difficulties, which will be explained in a little bit. This forecast goes a little bit east of the last one, focusing on Montana, Utah and Wyoming.

Before we get into that, it’s the results from the last one. Unfortunately, when I checked for Reno’s stats, snowfall data was missing for Wednesday and Thursday, the 2 days involved in the forecast. That is the problem with verifying forecasts, sometimes results aren’t available as quickly as one would like. The Reno stats are available now, so the next forecast is coming up soon. The delay doesn’t have too big of an impact here, but it made the forecast over on Golden Snowball a little bit harder on me.

Now that is out of the way, here are the snowfall totals for Reno, NV and Salt Lake City, UT for Wednesday and Thursday.

Reno: 2.3
Salt Lake City: 3.7

Bull’s Eye: Reno and Salt Lake City total 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target: Only Reno totals 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss: Reno’s snowfall total is outside of the 2-4 inch range.

Both were in range, so that is a Bull’s Eye. Interesting that both were 0.3 inches away from the end points of the range.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

A pretty solid week for me, as the GSB forecast was On Target, and I’m back to the 1.00 average. That is exactly the goal set at the beginning of the season. We’ve reached the halfway point for the forecasts, and I’d like to have it all wrapped up at the end of March.

Now on to this forecast, which, as mentioned previously, focuses on Montana, Utah and Wyoming. I’ll be using Salt Lake City, Billings and Cheyenne from each of their respective states. The snow storm currently out west will be moving east, and as a result, I expect these cities to get 1-4 inches over the next few days.

Bull’s Eye: All 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
On Target: 2 of the 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 1 or 0 of the 3 cities has 1-4 inches of snow.

Be sure to check out the GSB forecast update as well. Have a great rest of the week everyone!

This is the first forecast that involves the midweek. Part of that is to make up for not having one for the past weekend, and part of it is for what some would consider to be an unusual event.

Before this forecast is shown though, it is a look back to the last one. Last forecast involved snowfall for the major cities in Ohio. The weekend totals are listed below.

Akron: 1.0
Cincinnati: 0.6
Cleveland: 2.6
Columbus: 1.3
Dayton: 1.3
Toledo: 7.0

Bull’s Eye: All 6 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
On Target: 4 or 5 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
Complete Miss: 3 or fewer of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.

Akron, Cleveland, Columbus and Dayton all were within 1-3 inches, so this is an On Target Forecast.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

It was a tough forecast period for me as the GSB forecast was a Complete Miss. As a result, I’m at 7 points for 8 forecasts, which puts me at an average of .88. 12 forecasts, 6 periods worth, still remain for the season.

On to this forecast, which features snowfall in Reno, NV and Salt Lake City, UT. While Reno is the star of it, I’m using Salt Lake City for my Bull’s Eye forecast. A bit different for the forecasts, but as mentioned before, it is a bit different situation. Snow is expected for Reno today, which will work its way to Salt Lake City tonight through Thursday. I’m expecting Reno to have 2-4 inches of snow from this event, with Salt Lake City likely getting in that range as well.

Bull’s Eye: Reno and Salt Lake City total 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target: Only Reno totals 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss: Reno’s snowfall total is outside of the 2-4 inch range.

Be sure to check out the GSB forecast update as well. Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Some snow accumulations are expected in Ohio over the weekend, so that is where this edition of the Point Blank Range Forecasts will be focused. Before we can get into that though, it’s a look way back to the last one.

The forecast for January 21-23 involved low temperatures in Texas. Below are the lowest temperatures recorded over the weekend (Friday night through Sunday) for each of the 5 cities.

Austin: 20 (5:07am Jan 22)
Dallas/Forth Worth: 25 (6:53am Jan 22)
El Paso: 32 (7:16am Jan 22)
Houston: 30 (7:25am Jan 22)
San Antonio: 28 (7:15am Jan 22)

Austin’s 20 degrees was a record for January 22nd, their previous for the date was 23, set in 1985.

Bull’s Eye: All five listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.
On Target: Three or four listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.

El Paso’s low was right on freezing, which cost me the Bull’s Eye, instead making the forecast On Target.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

A good weekend for me, and as a result, the average is back up to 1.00, the goal set at the beginning of the season. With 7 forecasts remaining, there still is time to fall back again if I’m not careful.

Now onto this weekend’s outlook, which features the major cities in Ohio (Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Toledo). A system will be moving through the area, but accumulations should be very light. I expect totals to be in the 1-3 inch range over the weekend for most of the state.

Bull’s Eye: All 6 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
On Target: 4 or 5 of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.
Complete Miss: 3 or fewer of the Ohio cities have 1-3 inches of snow over the weekend.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snowball site for the forecast update. Have a great weekend everyone!

One month down, two more to go for the Shot In The Dark Forecasts. This month’s will focus on some of the major midwest cities. But before we get into that, it’s a look back at January.

The January forecast involved Boston, New York City and Philadelphia snowfall. In particular, reaching a foot of snow on a day in the month. Below are the number of days each city reached a foot of snow.

Boston: 1 (January 12: 14.6 inches)
New York City (Central Park): 1 (January 26: 12.3 inches)
Philadelphia: 1 (January 26: 14.2 inches)

Bull’s Eye: Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
On Target: 2 of the 3 have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
Complete Miss: 1 or none have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.

All three reached at least a foot of snow once, so that is a Bull’s Eye Forecast, a great way to start.

Here are the results, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

The GSB forecast was a Complete Miss, so as a result, the average sits at 1.00, exactly the goal set before the forecasts began.

Now onto the February forecast, which, as mentioned before, focuses on the Midwest. It was a rough start to February for Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Madison and Milwaukee. I believe the worst of the snow is behind them, at least for the month.

Bull’s Eye: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for all five cities.
On Target: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for three or four of the cities.
Complete Miss: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for two or fewer of the cities.

For a point of reference, the snowfall totals for the first two days in each city are as follows:
Chicago: 20.2
Detroit: 10.6
Kansas City: 8.9
Madison: 14.3
Milwaukee: 17.6

Be sure to check out the Golden Snowball site to see that edition as well. I will resume the Point Blank Range Forecasts tomorrow.

This edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts will focus on low temperatures in Texas. Before this weekend’s outlook is revealed though, it is a look back at the last forecast.

Last weekend’s forecast involved the major cities in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Below are the weekend totals for each.

Detroit, MI: 1.3
Flint, MI: 2.1
Grand Rapids, MI: 2.9
Lansing, MI: 1.1
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN: 1.5
Green Bay, WI: 4.1
Madison, WI: 5.1
Milwaukee, WI: 5.4

Bull’s Eye: All eight listed areas receive at least 3 inches of snow this weekend.
On Target: Four to seven of the listed areas receive at least 3 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: Four or more of the listed areas receive less than 3 inches of snow this weekend.

Three of the eight reached the 3 inch mark, so that is a Complete Miss. Grand Rapids was 1 tenth of an inch away from making it On Target.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

A tough weekend for me as both the GSB and GSG forecasts resulted in Complete Miss outlooks. That brings my average down to 0.75, below the goal for the end of the season. There are eight more forecasts remaining this season, so I still have plenty of time to reach that mark.

Now on to this weekend’s outlook. As mentioned earlier, this edition focuses on low temperatures in Texas. Temperatures are expected to be below average for this time of year, and I believe a majority the 5 biggest cities in Texas (Austin, Dallas/Forth Worth, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio) will be below freezing at some point in the weekend, Friday night through Sunday.

Bull’s Eye: All five listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.
On Target: Three or four listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer listed have sub freezing low temperatures this weekend.

Remember to check out the Golden Snowball site to see that update. Have a great weekend everyone and try to stay warm!

With Martin Luther King Day on Monday, it’s a three day weekend for most people. So, I figured this edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts should be for Sunday through Monday. Before we get into this weekend’s outlook though, it’s a check of the outcome for the previous forecasts.

Last weekend’s outlook involved snowfall totals for four major Pennsylvania cities Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Their weekend totals are listed below.

Allentown: 2.3
Erie: 3.8
Philadelphia: 3.2
Pittsburgh: 2.3

Bull’s Eye: Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh each have snowfall totals between 1-4 inches for the weekend.
On Target: Three of the four have snowfall totals between 1-4 inches for the weekend.
Complete Miss: Any other outcome.

All of them fell in the 1-4 inch range for the weekend, so the forecast is a Bull’s Eye.

Here are the results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

Now on to this weekend’s outlook. The biggest threat of snow appears to be in the upper Midwest states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, so the PBR forecast for the weekend involves the major cities Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing in Michigan, Minneapolis/St. Paul in Minnesota and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin.

Bull’s Eye: All eight listed areas receive at least 3 inches of snow this weekend.
On Target: Four to seven of the listed areas receive at least 3 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: Four or more of the listed areas receive less than 3 inches of snow this weekend.

Remember to check out the Golden Snowball to see that update. Have a great weekend everyone!

Before I get into the first Point Blank Range Forecast of the season, I figured I’d mention what the PBR Forecast is. Basically, a PBR is the exact opposite of the Shot In The Dark forecast in that research has been done while making the forecast, though sometimes it can be from a gut feeling. I also try to keep it from being like a typical forecast that is seen on TV or on other websites.

This edition focuses on Pennsylvania, where some snowfall is expected over the weekend. It won’t be nearly as much as the blizzard produced, but the major PA cities should see a couple of inches of snow.

Bull’s Eye: Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh each have snowfall totals between 1-4 inches for the weekend.
On Target: Three of the four have snowfall totals between 1-4 inches for the weekend.
Complete Miss: Any other outcome.

As always, check the Golden Snowball website to see the GSB forecast for the weekend.

It has been a quiet time in the Northeast to start 2011, but I have a feeling that will change. That is all a Shot In The Dark forecast is based on, so it seems appropriate to use the Northeast in the January 2011 edition.

The end of December featured the blizzard that put several areas in a standstill. I am expecting a similar type of event in January for Boston, New York City and Philadelphia.

Bull’s Eye: Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
On Target: 2 of the 3 have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
Complete Miss: 1 or none have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.

To clarify, each city needs one day, but they do not all have to be the same day. For example, if Boston has a foot of snow on the 15th, and NYC and Philly have a foot of snow on the 26th, that would be a Bull’s Eye forecast.

Be sure to check the Golden Snowball site to see the GSB forecast.