It has been awhile since I’ve done a PBR forecast on the site, and it’s about time I fixed that. Before that, here are a couple of notes.
First off,I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was pretty much a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. There are 7 weekends between now and April, so if I plan on a forecast for each week, then I’ll be in good shape.
Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.
With that said, let’s take a look back at the last forecast, done for January 27th and 28th. I believed that snowfall would be in the 1-3 range for Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Minneapolis, MN, Detroit, MI and South Bend, IN. If all five were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye while a majority would be On Target. Here are the snowfall totals.
Madison: 0.5
Milwaukee: 0.6
Minneapolis: 0.5
Detroit: 1.3
South Bend: 0.4
Only Detroit was in range, so that is a Complete Miss.
| GSG Forecast Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | Bull’s Eye | On Target | Complete Miss | Points |
| Average: 0.63 | ||||
| SITD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| PBR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
With that out of the way, it’s time for this edition. The featured cities are Lexington, KY, Charleston, WV, Charlottesville, VA, Washington, DC and Baltimore MD.
Bull’s Eye All five of the selected cities will total 2-6 inches of snow for the 3 day weekend.
On Target 3 or 4 of the selected cities will total 2-6 inches of snow for the 3 day weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.
Have a great weekend everyone!
