After last week’s epic failure, it’s time to see if my Christmas forecast was gold, or if it was nothing but coal.
For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Upstate cities will have a white Christmas. My criteria was there must be either snow on the ground, or in the air. The table below shows the snow depth and snowfall amounts for the seven cities.
| Upstate New York Snow | ||
|---|---|---|
| City | Depth | Fall |
| Cities with a white Christmas: At least 4 | ||
| Albany | 1 | Trace |
| Binghamton | 4 | Trace |
| Buffalo | Trace | None |
| Glens Falls | ?? | None |
| Rochester | 1 | None |
| Syracuse | 2 | Trace |
| Watertown | ?? | None |
Not exactly the whitest of Christmases for Upstate, but it was good enough for the forecast to be a success. I was unable to find snow depth data on Glens Falls and Watertown, so I couldn’t count them officially as having snow. So, at least 4, and at most 6, of the cities had snow accumulations on the ground. The one that didn’t was Buffalo, of all places, with just a trace.
The World forecast had the same idea: at least half of the major cities in Minnesota and Wisconsin would have a white Christmas. The criteria for white Christmas was the same as the NYS forecast. The table below shows the snow depth and snowfall statistics from the National Weather Service.
| Minnesota and Wisconsin Snow | ||
|---|---|---|
| City | Depth | Fall |
| Cities with a white Christmas: 4 | ||
| Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN | 12 | 2.0 |
| Green Bay, WI | 8 | 0.1 |
| Madison, WI | 5 | 1.0 |
| Milwaukee, WI | 2 | None |
This forecast also proved to be right. All four cities had some snow depth and at least two of them had measurable snow. Snow fall data for Madison and Milwaukee are missing according to NWS. But by using the next day’s amounts, I was able to make an estimate on Friday’s snowfall. I am not sure how accurate those two are, but that is not a big concern (at least for verifying this forecast since all had some snow depth anyway).
| Golden SnowCast Results | |
|---|---|
| Region | Record |
| Overall Percentage: 70% | |
| NYS | 3-2 |
| World | 4-1 |
| Overall | 7-3 |
A successful week puts me at 70% after 10 forecasts. The only truly awful forecast so far was last week’s World. While there are 2 misses on the NYS side, at least both of those were close. I suppose the other forecasts that could be considered bad were from a few weeks ago with wind gusts for NYS and temperatures for Ontario, Canada. But those were correct and had the right idea. The PA snowfall forecast was just lousy. So, while my percentage is not where I’d like it, I’m still fairly happy with the first 10 forecasts as a whole. I have a feeling I’m going to need some luck with the next 10 forecasts though, but only time will tell how those end up performing.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend everyone!
