snowiest city

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OK, I’m an idiot ;) I did an update on the stats late yesterday except there was one problem. I forgot to upload them to the site. Anyways he stats have been updated and they should be up to date as of earlier yesterday, 1/29. A few changes in the top 10 but Da’Cuse continues to hold the lead. Erie, Pa and Buffalo, NY are closing in on Syracuse and it’s a pretty tight snow race right now. I’ll try and get another update done in the next day or two once the storm that’s going on now is over.

Have a Great Weekend All :)

The end of January is near, with the weekend being the last few days of the month. It’s out with the old and in with the new for the New York State forecast. It involves a temperature outlook for first day of February.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures below freezing on Monday.

New York State started the work week with temperatures in the 50s, but it’s a much different story this time. The Golden Snowball cities have been in a big chill for the past few days. While that will ease somewhat on Monday, temperatures will still be below freezing. A correct forecast will have at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities below 32 degrees on Monday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at part of the plain states. But don’t worry, they are trying to redecorate. Poor attempt a humor, my apologies.

At least half of the five biggest cities in Iowa and Nebraska will receive measurable snowfall on Monday.

The five cities used for verification will be Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Davenport in Iowa and Nebraska’s Lincoln and Omaha. At least 3 of them need to have a tenth of an inch or more of snowfall for the forecast to be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have their Monday high temperatures be before 8am. The table below shows the high temperature and when it was recorded by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs in New York State
City High Time
Cities with high temperatures before 8am: 3
Albany 56 2:53pm
Binghamton 52 9:41am
Buffalo 49 12:38am
Rochester 56 5:02am
Syracuse 57 7:16am

This prediction was correct. Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse all high high temperatures recorded before 8am. As an interesting note, Buffalo had the earliest recorded and lowest temperature. However, Albany had the latest recorded but was not the highest temperature.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 2 of the 3 bigger cities in the Dakotas would have an inch or more of snow from Sunday to Monday. The table below shows the snow fall for each day, as reported by the National Weather Service, and the two day total.

Dakota Snowfall
City Sunday Monday Total
Cities with snow totals of an inch or more: 3
Fargo, ND Trace 2.2 2.2
Grand Forks, ND Trace 1.4 1.4
Sioux Falls, SD 0.9 1.0 1.9

This forecast turned out to be correct. I expected there to be more of an split on both days like Sioux Falls had with a tenth of an inch difference between the 2 days. However, Fargo and Grand Forks got over an inch on Monday while receiving no accumulation on Sunday. I admit, I was a little worried about my forecast after Sunday, but it pulled through.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS 7-2
World 8-1
Overall 15-3

Another 2 for 2 week, and the percentage continues to move toward the 90% goal. If that 83.33% looks familiar, it’s because that’s the exact percentage after week 3, when I was 5-1 overall. After reaching 83.33% the first time, the 4th forecast was a complete failure, going 0-2. I will try to avoid that with the next forecast.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

It’s been a pretty quiet time for snow in the Golden Snowball cities. The weekend appears to be quite warm and dry for this time of year, but then comes Monday. The New York State forecast involves the time in which the high temperature will be recorded.

The high temperature on Monday will occur before 8am for a majority of Golden Snowball cities.

Sunday night into Monday, cold air will take hold of the region. So whatever the high temperature ends up as on Monday will be very early in the day. For the prediction to be correct, the time when the high temperature is recorded must be before 8am Monday in at least 3 of the 5 cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look into snow for the Dakotas.

At least two out of three reporting stations in North Dakota and South Dakota will have at least an inch of total snow accumulation Sunday and Monday.

The three reporting stations used will be Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota and South Dakota’s Sioux Falls. If at least two of them receive an inch of snow or more from Sunday to Monday, the prediction will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

For the New York State prediction, it was a 2 for 1 special. I believed a majority of the cities would have above freezing high temperatures and no measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures and snowfall for Monday, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs and Snowfall in New York State
City High Snowfall
Cities with high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall: 4
Albany 41 0.7
Binghamton 37 Trace
Buffalo 36 None
Rochester 37 None
Syracuse 39 Trace

Each of the five cities was above freezing. Only Albany had measurable snowfall while both Binghamton and Syracuse reported a trace. The prediction was correct. Interesting to note that Albany had the highest high temperature on Monday, yet still managed over a half inch of snow.

For the World Forecast, I believed that 2 out of the 4 big cities in Arizona and Nevada would have rain on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for the four cities.

Arizona and Nevada Rainfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with rain on either Sunday or Monday: 3
Las Vegas, NV None 0.04
Phoenix, AZ None 0.01
Reno, NV Trace 0.06
Tucson, AZ None None

This forecast was correct as well. Tucson was the only of the four not to have any rain on either day. The other three all had rain on Monday. Reno was the only one to have any sort of rain on Sunday, with just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 81.25%
NYS 6-2
World 7-1
Overall 13-3

Two more correct predictions and the percentage is back over 80%. I still have a bit of work to do to get up to 90%, as I need the next 7 weeks (14 predictions) to be perfect to reach that mark. At the very worst, I have more breathing room over 50%, as it would take 10 straight missed predictions to fall to that level.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

No doubt this was the most boring update since we started keeping track of the snowiest cities. No changes in the top 10 and only a few changes for the rest of the US cities. It’s looking like some changes may be coming weather wise but it may depend on whether it’s rain, snow or a mix. A good part of the northeast is seeing rain and a mix right now as I type including where I’m from, the Syracuse area.

To the north west I’m hearing about several storm systems moving in one after another but again it will depend on the temperatures and where they hit. Could be a chance for the Colorado cities to start up again. Let’s hope that the Arctic air come back and gets some of the lakes cranking out the LES sooner rather than later.

Have a Great Work Week All :)

The roads have been pretty dry for me in the past few days, and it’s not because of the plows. Temperatures have warmed up a little and snowfall has been minimal for the Golden Snowball cities, especially when compared to the end of December and start of January.

A majority of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall on Monday.

A little change of pace for this prediction. Usually the Golden SnowCast focuses on one variable, but this time it’s snow and temperatures. For the forecast to be correct, at least 3 of the cities need to have high temperatures above freezing AND have snowfall below a tenth of an inch.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Arizona and Nevada.

At least half of the four major reporting stations in Arizona and Nevada will have rain on Sunday or Monday.

Didn’t see that one coming, did you? The four reporting stations are Las Vegas and Reno, NV and Phoenix and Tucson, AZ. If at least 2 of these record rain on either Sunday or Monday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great end of the work week, and weekend, everyone!

1:00 AM – Wednesday - OK, I just updated the top 10 snowiest cities and so far no changes since earlier. I’m looking at the snow stats and remember this post is coming from the Oracle of the Syracuse Golden Snowball snow stats so I am definitely puling for the Northeast cities verses the rest of the country. I will and do try to keep it unbiased though. Syracuse (Woo Oho – see unbiased) so far is in the lead but there are several cities that have some of us in the NY area a little worried ;)

I think the city that scares me personally the most of becoming the King of The Snow Mountain for the first ever Golden Snow Globe Award is probably Erie,Pa. They have shown over and over again that they are definitely a worthy competitor when it comes to piling up the snow.

Other cities to pay a ton of attention to are the other snow belt cities in New York. Buffalo and Rochester! They are due to overtake Syracuse and it’s just a matter of time. It’s been several years but this could be the snow season that one of them skates to the top.

Michigan has been on a roll. Several of the cities around the Great Lakes seem to be catching up pretty quick to the top cities. The big factor in my opinion right now is which way the wind blows and how much of the lakes start to freeze over. With the cold temps the last couple of weeks the chances are that Lake Erie may be pretty much almost frozen over which may stop the Buffalo and surrounding cities from compensating on the lake effect snow but never count them out.

This being the first National Snow contest ever and me being the clueless person that I am when it comes to Geography I think I’ll have to read up on how the other great lakes freeze up, if they even do in the cold months. Either that or ya all can clue me in on it. Feel free to leave comments about the weather in your neck of the woods.

Hey, Have a Super Day All!

Early – 1/12 - I’ll post a summary of this latest update later but as it stands Fort Collins, Co has finally been knocked down the snow mountain I think for the first time this season. I’m sure they will be back though along with several of the other cities. My bet is there are going to be several lead changes in the next several weeks. Stay Tuned and Congrats to Syracuse for taking the king of the mountain. For now anyways :) !

For the New York State forecast, it was back to the Golden Snowball cities. I predicted that a majority of the cities would not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday. The table below shows the snow totals on each day for each city, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Upstate New York Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with no measurable snowfall on either Saturday or Sunday: 4
Albany None None
Binghamton 0.2 0.2
Buffalo 0.9 Trace
Rochester 1.4 None
Syracuse 1.0 Trace

On Saturday, all but Albany received measurable snowfall. However, only Binghamton had measurable snowfall on Sunday. That’s 4 out of 5 with a trace or less on one day in the forecast period, making this a correct forecast. Of the 2 times I’ve done a “no measurable snowfall” forecast for NYS, Binghamton has been the one that has measurable snowfall. The first time was Forecast 1, which cost me a correct forecast.

For the World Forecast, I expected at least half of the 5 major reporting stations in Florida would have high temperatures at least 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for each city on each day.

Florida High Temperatures
City Saturday Average/Actual Sunday Average/Actual
Cities with high temperatures 10+ below average: 5
Jacksonville 64/37 64/44
Miami 76/63 76/48
Orlando 71/40 71/44
Tallahassee 63/38 63/41
Tampa 70/42 70/43

This one was one of those that was not close but managed to work out my way. The only one that was close to my 10 degree threshold was Miami on Saturday, at 13 below average. All the others were at least 20 below their historical average. When I made the forecast, Miami appeared to be the one that could be within single digits, so I gave myself some cushion. That cushion obviously turned out to not be necessary. Another reason for 10, is that in my eyes, if you are that far away from average (on either warmer or colder) that’s pretty extreme. So the idea was that there would be extreme cold in Florida. Little did I know that it would be far more extreme than that.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 78.57%
NYS 5-2
World 6-1
Overall 11-3

Two correct predictions, and it’s almost 80% for me on the season. This is the highest percentage I’ve had since being at 83.33% after forecast 3. Forecast 4 was the complete disaster, and I will try to avoid that again next time.

Have a great week everyone!

The new snow stats have been updated as of 1/9/10. Click Here to check out the snowiest US cities! There was a more shifting around in the top 10 snowiest cities. A lot of the cities around the Great Lakes seemed to fair well this last update. Mostly because of the cold air creating some good lake effect snow. The chances are there just may be a new leader come the next update. Will it be Syracuse or will another of the top 10 cities take the snowy spot as King of the snow mountain.