A Newspaper Article About Our Snow Contest

Posted by Patrick on January 13, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

I’ve always thought it was pretty cool when an article comes out about our New York State snow contest the Golden Snowball. It’s just as cool if not cooler that the first article with a mention of our national contest came out this morning in the Syracuse Post Standard newspaper.

Sean Kirst is the journalist of the piece and I have talked to him several times over the years about how much fun doing the contest is. He liked the idea that we started up a national snow race and to be honest it’s writers like Sean and several others who really get what it’s about and have made the GSB contest take off. Having fun with the snow contest but also trying to figure ways that snowy cities can use it to their advantage. Skiing, more places for kids (adults) to sled down hills, trails for snowmobilers, winter festivals and so on. In other words enjoying the snow because whether you want it or not we got it. You can check out the article HERE at Syracuse.com

Cheers,
Patrick

The United States Snowiest City Contest Updated 1/13/10

Posted by Patrick on January 12, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , .

1:00 AM – Wednesday - OK, I just updated the top 10 snowiest cities and so far no changes since earlier. I’m looking at the snow stats and remember this post is coming from the Oracle of the Syracuse Golden Snowball snow stats so I am definitely puling for the Northeast cities verses the rest of the country. I will and do try to keep it unbiased though. Syracuse (Woo Oho – see unbiased) so far is in the lead but there are several cities that have some of us in the NY area a little worried ;)

I think the city that scares me personally the most of becoming the King of The Snow Mountain for the first ever Golden Snow Globe Award is probably Erie,Pa. They have shown over and over again that they are definitely a worthy competitor when it comes to piling up the snow.

Other cities to pay a ton of attention to are the other snow belt cities in New York. Buffalo and Rochester! They are due to overtake Syracuse and it’s just a matter of time. It’s been several years but this could be the snow season that one of them skates to the top.

Michigan has been on a roll. Several of the cities around the Great Lakes seem to be catching up pretty quick to the top cities. The big factor in my opinion right now is which way the wind blows and how much of the lakes start to freeze over. With the cold temps the last couple of weeks the chances are that Lake Erie may be pretty much almost frozen over which may stop the Buffalo and surrounding cities from compensating on the lake effect snow but never count them out.

This being the first National Snow contest ever and me being the clueless person that I am when it comes to Geography I think I’ll have to read up on how the other great lakes freeze up, if they even do in the cold months. Either that or ya all can clue me in on it. Feel free to leave comments about the weather in your neck of the woods.

Hey, Have a Super Day All!

Early – 1/12 - I’ll post a summary of this latest update later but as it stands Fort Collins, Co has finally been knocked down the snow mountain I think for the first time this season. I’m sure they will be back though along with several of the other cities. My bet is there are going to be several lead changes in the next several weeks. Stay Tuned and Congrats to Syracuse for taking the king of the mountain. For now anyways :) !

Golden SnowCast Forecast 7 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 11, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, it was back to the Golden Snowball cities. I predicted that a majority of the cities would not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday. The table below shows the snow totals on each day for each city, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Upstate New York Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with no measurable snowfall on either Saturday or Sunday: 4
Albany None None
Binghamton 0.2 0.2
Buffalo 0.9 Trace
Rochester 1.4 None
Syracuse 1.0 Trace

On Saturday, all but Albany received measurable snowfall. However, only Binghamton had measurable snowfall on Sunday. That’s 4 out of 5 with a trace or less on one day in the forecast period, making this a correct forecast. Of the 2 times I’ve done a “no measurable snowfall” forecast for NYS, Binghamton has been the one that has measurable snowfall. The first time was Forecast 1, which cost me a correct forecast.

For the World Forecast, I expected at least half of the 5 major reporting stations in Florida would have high temperatures at least 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for each city on each day.

Florida High Temperatures
City Saturday Average/Actual Sunday Average/Actual
Cities with high temperatures 10+ below average: 5
Jacksonville 64/37 64/44
Miami 76/63 76/48
Orlando 71/40 71/44
Tallahassee 63/38 63/41
Tampa 70/42 70/43

This one was one of those that was not close but managed to work out my way. The only one that was close to my 10 degree threshold was Miami on Saturday, at 13 below average. All the others were at least 20 below their historical average. When I made the forecast, Miami appeared to be the one that could be within single digits, so I gave myself some cushion. That cushion obviously turned out to not be necessary. Another reason for 10, is that in my eyes, if you are that far away from average (on either warmer or colder) that’s pretty extreme. So the idea was that there would be extreme cold in Florida. Little did I know that it would be far more extreme than that.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 78.57%
NYS 5-2
World 6-1
Overall 11-3

Two correct predictions, and it’s almost 80% for me on the season. This is the highest percentage I’ve had since being at 83.33% after forecast 3. Forecast 4 was the complete disaster, and I will try to avoid that again next time.

Have a great week everyone!

Syracuse Ties Fort Collins for Most Snow in US

Posted by Patrick on January 9, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

We now have a tie between Fort Collins, Colorado and Syracuse, New York for the snowiest big city contest. How long will it last? Beats me but it’s pretty cool how the top cities are all closing in on each other and no doubt it’s a close snow race. All of the city stats were updated earlier today and the top 10 was just updated a little while ago.


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The Snowiest US Cities Updated 1/9/2010

Posted by Patrick on January 7, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , .

The new snow stats have been updated as of 1/9/10. Click Here to check out the snowiest US cities! There was a more shifting around in the top 10 snowiest cities. A lot of the cities around the Great Lakes seemed to fair well this last update. Mostly because of the cold air creating some good lake effect snow. The chances are there just may be a new leader come the next update. Will it be Syracuse or will another of the top 10 cities take the snowy spot as King of the snow mountain.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 7

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 7, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

The week or so has produced a good amount of snow for most of the Golden Snowball cities. The New York State forecast will focus on snow for the GSB sites.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday.

The GSB areas look to be getting a little bit of a break from the snow over the weekend. Remember that measurable snow is a tenth of an inch or more. As long as 3 or more out of the 5 cities have either a trace or nothing, this forecast will be correct.

This year’s Orange Bowl in Miami was the coldest on record, so the World forecast will look to Florida with a temperature prediction.

At least half of the 5 major Florida reporting stations will have high temperatures 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday.

The much colder than usual temperatures appear to stay with Florida for the weekend. The 5 stations used will be Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and Tallahassee. The forecast will be correct if 3 or more of the cities listed have high temperatures 10 degrees or more below their average for both Saturday and Sunday.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 5, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , .

Happy 2010 everyone! By now, I should be one of the last people to wish you all a Happy New Year.

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that on New Year’s Eve, at least 1 of the three New York City reporting stations would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average and low temperatures above average. The table below shows the recorded temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York City Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High/Low Recorded High/Low
Sites with above average lows and highs within 5 degrees of average: 1
Central Park 39/27 34/33
JFK Airport 40/27 33/33
La Guardia 40/28 34/34

This one was correct, with not much room to spare. All low temperatures were above average, but only Central Park had a high temperature within 5 degrees of average. It is interesting to me that both JFK and La Guardia had no variability between high and low temperatures throughout the day, and a slight change for Central Park.

For the World Forecast, I believed a majority of the other 9 biggest US cities would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on New Year’s Eve. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

US High Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High Recorded High
Cities with highs within 5 degrees of average: 6
Los Angeles, CA 66 68
Chicago, IL 30 32
Houston, TX 62 58
Phoenix, AZ 66 64
Philadelphia, PA 40 34
San Antonio, TX 62 76
Dallas, TX 54 46
San Diego, CA 65 66
San Jose, CA 57 62

This one turned out to be correct as well. San Antonio had the biggest margin of the 9, as the high temperature was 14 degrees above average for New Year’s Eve. A few cities had their highs be very close to average as Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix and San Diego were each within 2 degrees. Houston and San Jose were both within 5, making it 6 out of 9 cities within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 75%
NYS 4-2
World 5-1
Overall 9-3

It was another successful forecast and now I am at 75% for the season. This is the same percentage I was at after the 2nd batch of forecasts, when I was 3-1 overall. I still need 18 straight correct forecasts to reach my goal of 90%, but at least now I have some breathing room over 50%.

With many areas receiving snow in the past few weeks, I’m sure some of you have some great snow pictures. Why don’t you send us some? Also, let’s see if you can Stump the Weather Chump.

The Snowiest US Cities Are Updated

Posted by Patrick on December 29, 2009
Posted in: Uncategorized.

First off PSUSyr5 is giving us all another forecast so check it out below ;)

I just wanted to give a quick heads up that all of the snowiest cities in the US have been updated. More to come on how it’s looking tomorrow but it is getting interesting.

I think the 3 cities to keep an eye on right now are Grand Rapids, Michigan, Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Erie Pennsylvania. For what it’s worth Sioux Falls, South Dakota jumped 26 spots from number 31 to number 5. No doubt they are making a move and a big one at that.

Cheers :)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 29, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , .

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

New Year’s Eve is Thursday and as usual there will be celebrations galore. Perhaps the most famous of celebrations is in New York City’s Time Square. This week, the Golden Snowball cities will take a back seat to New York City for the New York State forecast.

At least one of the New York City reporting stations will highs within 5 degrees of average and lows above average on Thursday.

There are three National Weather Service reporting stations in the NYC area that will be used for verification: Central Park, La Guardia and JFK airports. If at least one of them has high temperatures with 5 degrees of average (above or below) and warmer than average lows for New Year’s Eve, the forecast will be correct.

For the world forecast, it’s a look at the 9 most populated cities in the US after NYC.

A majority of cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Thursday.

This is similar to this week’s NYS forecast, with the exception that low temperatures are not involved here. The nine most populated US cities other than NYC are, in order from largest to smallest, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Dallas, San Diego and San Jose. For the forecast to be correct, nine of these have their high temperatures within 5 degrees of average (high or low) on New Year’s Eve.

Happy New Year! Have a great week.