Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2 Update

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 15, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

I was going to post the outcome today, but came across a little bit of conflicting data.

In the forecast, I said that only one Golden Snowball city would be ahead of Baltimore by the end of Sunday: Syracuse. At the time, Baltimore had 79.9 inches while Syracuse, the closest of the GSB cities, had 76.1. Baltimore did not have any measurable snow for the weekend, so Syracuse would need to reach 80.0 inches to take the lead.

On the update from 1245 AM February 15th, the summary for February 14th is shown. A look at the seasonal snowfall (marked Since Jul 1) is 78.5. That’s 1.4 inches behind Baltimore. However, when I was watching the evening news, I saw that the snowfall today at the airport, where the official measurements are taken, was 0.5 inches, bringing the total for the season up to 80.5. Quick math shows that 80.5-0.5=80.0, which is more than Baltimore’s snowfall. I thought that was a mistake and went back to the NWS climate data. I checked for the most recent report. Sure enough, it is reported that today is 0.5 inches and the season is 80.5. So, somewhere is an “extra” 1.5 inches.

There is a missing snowfall measurement from the 5:19 PM update on February 13th, so it could be that the data is now found. But it is also possible that the 1.5 inches in question is a mistake.

Since the difference between STUMPED and NOT STUMPED lies within the 1.5 inches, I am not ready to call this one final for a little while longer when the data differences may be cleared up a little.

Have a great week everyone!

Snowiest City Update Coming Sometime Today

Posted by Patrick on February 14, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

First off I’ve gotten hit with a lot of great emails and thanks for all the response. I’ll be answering them as soon as I have a chance. The same with the comments on here. I am reading all of them as they are posted.

The top 10 snowiest cities have been updated and hopefully all of the cities will be updated. I’ll post here when the update is done. Syracuse Orange -vs- Louisville at 1:00 PM so chances are that there will be a 2 hour break at 1 :) GO CUSE!!!

Happy Valentines Day All :)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 12

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 13, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Since the latest Stump the Weather Chump involves snow for the Golden Snowball Cities for the weekend, the New York State forecast will be comparing weekend snowfall with the start of the work week.

At least one of Golden Snowball cities will have more snow total for the weekend than for Monday and Tuesday.

It’s a little bit of a blind forecast since the weekend totals are obviously unknown at this point. For the forecast to be correct the 48 hour total for Saturday and Sunday must be greater than the 48 hour total for Monday and Tuesday in at least one of the GSB cities.

The World forecast involves Kentucky and West Virginia.

At least half of the cities used for verification in Kentucky and West Virginia will total 2 inches or more of snow for Monday and Tuesday.

There are four cities involved in this: Charleston and Huntington, WV and Lexington and Louisville, KY. For the forecast to be correct, 2 or more of them must total at least 2 inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 12, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

Something tells me it won’t be Albany or Binghamton, so those are eliminated right off the bat. So, now it’s down to 3: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.

As of the early morning NWS update, Baltimore has 79.9 inches for the season. It looks like they will stay there by the end of Sunday. Buffalo has 63.1, Rochester has 63.9 and Syracuse has 76.1. I don’t believe either Buffalo or Rochester will get over 16 inches of snow this weekend, so if any of the GSB cities will move ahead of Baltimore, it would be Syracuse which needs 3.8 inches to tie.

If Syracuse is going to get 3.8+ inches, it’ll be from Lake Effect. That will likely occur from Saturday afternoon through Monday. It’s hard to believe that a LES storm lasting that long won’t drop at least 3.8 inches in a given area.

Syracuse will be the only Golden Snowball city to have more snow than Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

If you believe you can Stump The Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 11, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , , .

With all the excitement with the snow storms, I forgot to post my results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that one of the New York City reporting stations would have more total snow for the weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities. The table below shows the snowfall for the NYC reporting stations and the GSB cities on Saturday and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Weekend Snowfall in New York State
City Saturday Sunday
GSB Cities with less snowfall than NYC: 5
Central Park Trace None
JFK 1.6 None
La Guardia Trace None
Albany None None
Binghamton None 0.4
Buffalo Trace Trace
Rochester 1.0 Trace
Syracuse None Trace

JFK had 1.6 total, and all the GSB cities had an inch or lower. So this forecast was correct. Interesting to note the difference between the 3 NYC stations, Central Park and La Guardia both having a trace while JFK had over an inch. Binghamton was the only city to report measurable snowfall on Sunday.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 1 of Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC would have at least 10 inches of snow for the weekend. While it may look obvious that this held up, and wasn’t all that close, remember that a portion of the snow fell on Friday. The table below shows the snow totals for Saturday and Sunday for those cities, according to NWS.

Mid-Atlantic Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with 10 inches or more: 2
Baltimore, MD 17.0 None
Newark, NJ 0.4 None
Philadelphia, PA 22.0 None
Pittsburgh, PA 9.7 Trace
Washington, DC 9.1 None

With Baltimore and Philadelphia over the threshold, this forecast was correct. Pittsburgh and Washington, DC almost broke through the 10 inch plateau as well. All but Newark broke snowfall records for February 6th. In case you were wondering, Newark’s record for February 6th was set in 1978 with 17.9 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 19-3 86.36%
NYS 9-2 81.82%
World 10-1 90.91%

Another two for two forecast, and I’m inching toward the 90% goal. I have changed the table a little bit, now showing the percentage for each region, in addition to the overall. Forecast 12 should be up tomorrow. Lately, Thursdays and Fridays have been days when I’m less busy, which is why I’ve done forecasts for the weekend, or days close to it, in the recent weeks.

Have a great end of the work week!

Baltimore Storms Past Syracuse for The Lead

Posted by Patrick on February 11, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

I just did a full update and if the stats are right Baltimore is now king of the snow mountain. Just typing that made me have to take another look at the stats. A city from Maryland, the state that has one of my favorite vacation places (Ocean City) that on average has about a foot of snow at this time is leading if my stats are correct. I’m loving it :) Ummm, as long as they don’t hold the lead for too long that is ;)

Here is a good article by Frank Roylance who is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun that puts into perspective as to what is going on in Baltimore, Maryland snow wise! http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2010/02/so_far_this_winter_6_feet_7_in.html

Washington, DC has made it into the top 10 even after the switch from Dulles to National. Most likely I’ll be talking to someone from NOAA in the next week or so to see what they think about the locations and so on.

The Pa. cities are cashing in big time with these snow storms with 3 of them in the top ten. Erie, Pa I expected to be a tough competitor but I didn’t think Pittsburgh and no way Philadelphia to be in there. My brother lives in Philly and in the last 2 days he must have called here about 10 times rubbing it in :(

If you have any cool snow pictures you can send them to comments@goldensnowglobe.com and I’ll post them here on the site. Just let me know where the pics were taking and any other info you want to add.

Here in Syracuse all is pretty quiet with just snow showers in the forecast and I won’t even begin to tell those of you in DC, PA and Maryland how jealous I am right now. That just doesn’t sound right either!

Have a Great Snowy Day All!

The Top 10 Snowiest Cities Updated

Posted by Patrick on February 10, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: , , .

11:35 PM 2/10 – Look for a full update on all of the cities sometime tomorrow 2/11 :)

I just updated the top 10 cities to see how it’s looking with all the snow falling in the DC, PA and other states right now. KEEP IN MIND that some of the stats are from like around 1:00 am in the morning and some of the stats are from around 7 am this morning. That meaning there is still a lot of snow to report for most of the cities and it’s still snowing. Click her to check the current top 10. I’m going to try and at least get another top 10 update done later tonight when more stats come in ;)

Oops I Did It Again – My Bad

Posted by Patrick on February 10, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

I’m not talking about Britney Spears either. Believe me she’s a hell of a lot cuter than I am. I mentioned in other posts that this being the first national snow contest that mistakes are going to be made. That’s a promise :) This year is sort of a test run so feedback and suggestions are more than welcome. A big slip up was pointed out to me tonight on a site I came across, dcist.com with the Washington, DC snow stats. I have no problem with just myself making a mistake on the site. Trust me, I’m use to it by now but it bugs me when other sites post or quote stuff that I screw up on.

Anyways the mistake I made was using the snow stats from Dulles instead of National in DC which turns out to be a huge difference in snowfall. I think my major in high school was detention and not geography which should explain a little bit about me :(

What bothers me the most is that a couple of articles were posted online going by the site so if you came across any of them the blame lies here and not with them. OK, enough groveling and begging for forgiveness ;)

National is the airport now for DC and the chances are there are probably a couple others that may need to be changed. If you come across any jump right in to let us know about them. As for populations don’t bother about that now. My main goal to get the site started was to find cities with pops over 100,000. In other words if your city’s population is listed here at 230,789 instead of what may be 240,777 I’m not worried about that right now. Sooner or later we will have more recent city populations listed. OK, enough for now and again keep the input coming.

A shout out to the posters at http://dcist.com/2010/02/dc_area_now_claims_second_highest_s.php for cluing me in about the Washington,DC area and who know, they may be right back up there after this storm is done. Snow hats off to dcist.com and and syracuse.com for having fun with the snow contest and again it was my bad and not theirs.

Cheers All!

Washington, Baltimore and Philly Piling on the Snow

Posted by Patrick on February 8, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , , , .

First off I’m sorry about the lack of updates but a member of my family has been really sick. I’ll try to get at least the top 10 snowiest cities updated more frequently like at least every other day and as time permits with the full update.

Who would have thought that at this time in the season that Baltimore, MD, Philadelphia, PA and Washington, DC would be where they are right now in the snow lineup. It gets even better or worse depending how you look at it. There are a couple of storms going on right now and if all falls in place there could be a good chance that a couple of those cities may be in the lead for the snowiest city in the United States in the next few days. Pretty cool IMO :)

All 3 of the cities are about 50 inches above their normal snowfall for this time in the season give or take a little. I was expecting or at least hoping for a good snow contest for the first season but now way did I see it playing out like this. Syracuse is still king of the snow mountain but the snow race has a lot of snow days to go and right now the top prize as snowiest big city (pop 100,000) is up for grabs. Hopefully we’ll have more frequent updates from here on!

Have a Great Week All!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 11

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 4, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , , .

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a comparison with New York City and the Golden Snowball cities.

New York City will have more snowfall this weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities.

I will be using the totals from Saturday and Sunday for verification. There are three NYC area reporting stations: Central Park, JFK and La Guardia. If one of those has more total snow for the weekend than either Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo Rochester or Syracuse, the forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look to the Mid-Atlantic region.

At least one of the five bigger Mid-Atlantic cities will have 10 inches or more of snow this weekend.

The five cities that will be used for this are Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC. If one ore more of those cities total at least 10 inches of snow for Saturday and Sunday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!