For the New York State forecast, I predicted that none of the Golden Snowball cities would have measurable snowfall on any day between Friday and Sunday. The table below shows how much snow each city had as reported by the National Weather Service.

That forecast proved to be wrong. It was Binghamton that spoiled the forecast, and it didn’t take very long for that to happen. The other cities did their part. Close, but not close enough.

For the World pick, I said that at least 2 of the 4 major cities in Idaho, Montana and Utah would be within 5 degrees of their average highs and lows on Friday. The table below shows what the results are as reported by the National Weather Service and the Brigham Young University weather station.

That forecast turned out to be correct, barely. Interesting to note that the two that were not within 5 degrees were well above their average highs with Billings almost 15 over and Provo 20 above average.

As a side note, I try to use National Weather Service data when available. In the case of Provo, I used The Weather Channel to find the average temperatures and the BYU station for the actual temperatures as there is not an official NWS station in Provo. In some cases (usually with unofficial stations such as BYU’s), a “day” can have different start times. For example, the BYU page lists the day as 24 hours between 5pm local time while stats kept at Penn State’s weather station for State College, PA (also unofficial) are 24 hours between 7am EST/8am EDT. NWS information is updated a few times a day, with data available sometime after midnight for the previous day. It’s this data that I’ll typically use when verifying the accuracy of my forecasts if available for the given city.

So, I’m struggling out of the gate. To gain some perspective on this, I’d need to get the next 8 straight forecasts correct to get to my goal of 90%. Only 2 predictions are done at a time though, so when the next batch of forecasts come out, I’ll be shooting to reach 75% overall. I expect to have that forecast done by midweek.

Have a great week everyone.

Some people dream of a white Christmas, but for me, it just wouldn’t feel right if I didn’t have a white Thanksgiving weekend. So, for the New York State forecast, we’re looking into snow for the weekend.

None of the five Golden Snowball Cities will receive measurable snowfall on any day from Friday through Sunday.

There will be snow, however it does not appear to be much in the way of precipitation. Also, some of the precip will be rain, which means less snow falling. So, for my forecast to be correct, all five of Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse must not gain a tenth of an inch or more on any day this weekend.

For the World forecast, we’re moving to the Mountain West, in particular, Idaho, Montana and Utah, for some temperature forecasts.

At least half of the major cities in Idaho, Montana and Utah will be within 5 degrees of normal highs and lows on Friday.

Looks to be an about average day on Friday for that region. For those wondering, I am using Boise, ID, Billings, MT and Salt Lake City and Provo, UT as the major cities in the area. For my forecast to be right, at least 2 of them must be within 5 degrees of both their average high and low temperatures.

Happy Thanksgiving all!