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Golden SnowCast Forecast 15 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 14, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I had two predictions involving high temperatures for the Golden Snowball cities on either Thursday or Friday. All of them were to be at least 5 degrees over, and one of them would be 10 or more above, average. The table below shows Thursday and Friday’s average and recorded highs, according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Thursday Average/Recorded Friday Average/Recorded
GSB Cities with high temperatures 10 above average: 5
Albany 42/51 43/53
Binghamton 39/57 39/45
Buffalo 41/61 41/54
Rochester 41/61 41/51
Syracuse 41/57 42/50

Turns out, they all reached 10+ above average on at least one day, so the forecast is correct. In most cities, the difference decreased on Friday, Albany’s was the only one to increase. Buffalo and Rochester were both 20 above average on Thursday. A very mild couple of days indeed.

For the World forecast, I believed that on either Thursday or Friday, at least one of five selected cities in Maryland and Pennsylvania would have at least a half of an inch of rain. The table below shows precipitation amounts according to the National Weather Service.

Maryland and Pennsylvania Rainfall
City Thursday Friday
Cities with .5 inches of rain or more: 2
Allentown, PA None 0.28
Baltimore, MD None 0.98
Erie, PA None 0.03
Philadelphia, PA Trace 0.54
Pittsburgh, PA 0.02 0.24

Baltimore and Philadelphia surpassed the 0.5 mark on Friday, so the forecast is correct. Only Pittsburgh had measurable precipitation on Thursday, while Erie had just a few hundredths of an inch on Friday. For most of the cities highlighted, it was a very wet way to end the work week.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 26-4 86.67%
NYS 13-2 86.67%
World 13-2 86.67%

Both forecasts are correct, and the quest for 90% remains in tact. The next 5 weeks need to be prefect to get to the milestone I set at the beginning of the season. The past five forecasts were almost perfect, going 9 for 10. The forecast 14′s snowfall prediction for southern New England brought the 2nd miss on the World side. The only truly terrible outlook remains forecast 4′s snowfall amounts for Pennsylvania.

Happy pi Day everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 15

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 9, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Last week was my bye week. Let’s see if the week off helps me with my predictions, or if it will lead to rusty picks.

It’s a bit of a warm stretch now in the upstate New York region, so the New York State forecast involves a temperature forecast for the GSB cities.

All of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures 5 degrees above average, with at least one city topping average highs by at least 10 degrees, on either Thursday or Friday.

It’s one of the rare forecasts where there are two standards going on at once. First off, all five of the GSB cities must be 5 degrees above average on either day. In addition, at least one of those cities must be above average by 10 degrees or more on either Thursday or Friday. These do not have to occur on the same day for the forecast to be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a rain prediction for Maryland and Pennsylvania.

At least one of the five major reporting stations in Maryland and Pennsylvania will receive a half an inch or more of rain on either Thursday or Friday.

The five reporting stations that will be used are Baltimore, MD, and Pennsylvania’s Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If one of these five cities report at least 0.5 inches of rain on either Thursday or Friday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 14 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 3, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have above freezing temperatures for either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the high temperatures for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Monday Tuesday
GSB Cities with high temperatures within above freezing: 5
Albany 42 45
Binghamton 35 39
Buffalo 36 36
Rochester 37 38
Syracuse 37 40

All five were above freezing, so the forecast was correct. Albany was the hot spot to be among the five, as both days high temperatures were well into the 40s. Buffalo was the only one within 5 degrees of freezing on both days.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 3 out of 5 New England NWS stations would have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the NWS snowfall reports.

New England Snowfall
City Monday Tuesday
Cities with measurable snowfall: 2
Bridgeport, CT None None
Boston, MA 0.2 None
Hartford, CT None None
Providence, RI Trace Trace
Worcester, MA 0.5 None

The streak has come to an end, unfortunately. None of the five had measurable snowfall on Tuesday, and only 2 of them had 0.1 or more on Monday. That means only 2 had measurable snowfall on either day. Providence was the only one to have some sort of snowfall on both days, but each was just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 24-4 85.71%
NYS 12-2 85.71%
World 12-2 85.71%

This week was a split, so the percentage went down a little bit. The New York State and World forecasts now have the same percentage, just over 85%. If my plan to have 20 forecasts holds up, there is no room for error to reach the 90% target.

Have a great rest of the week!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 14

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 27, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

This week brought the first real storm to the Golden Snowball cities. A few snow records were broken for either Thursday or Friday in a majority of the GSB cities (Binghamton, Rochester and Syracuse). The roads were in pretty bad shape on Thursday night and I couldn’t get to work. It took me about a half an hour to go 2 miles, at which point I decided to call in and let them know I wouldn’t be able to be there. So I’d rather not deal with snow in the area for a little while. That includes forecasts, so the New York State forecast will go with a temperature outlook to start the work week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have above freezing high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

I feel better already! It’s not a snow forecast, and involves temperatures being above freezing. I’ll take it at this point. For the forecast to be correct, high temperatures must be above 32 degrees F in at least 3 out of 5 GSB cities on Monday and Tuesday. For a little clarification, it must be the same 3 this time.

The world forecast involves snow for the southern New England area.

At least half of the five major reporting stations in southern New England will have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday.

I had a hard time finding an area to forecast, and an even harder time figuring out snowfall amounts. So, I’m defaulting to the “measurable snowfall” forecast. The five cities that will be used for verification are Boston and Worcester in Massachusetts, Bridgeport and Hartford in Connecticut and Providence, RI. If three out of the five get at least a tenth of an inch on either Monday or Tuesday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 13 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 25, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that all five Golden Snowball cities would be within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Sunday Average/Reported Monday Average/Reported
GSB Cities with temperatures within 5 degrees of average: 5
Albany 36/35 36/40
Binghamton 32/34 33/37
Buffalo 35/33 35/33
Rochester 34/34 35/34
Syracuse 35/29 35/40

All five were within 5 degrees on Monday, so the forecast is correct. Syracuse was the only one to not be within 5 on both days as Sunday’s high was 6 below average. Rochester was spot on for Sunday, as their high temperature was exactly the average temperature of 34.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 2 of the 6 big cities of Illinois, Kansas and Missouri would have at least a half inch of snow total for Sunday and Monday. Below is a table showing snowfall for each day as reported by the National Weather Service.

Illinois, Kansas, Missouri Snowfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with half an inch or more total: 4
Chicago, IL 2.0 1.1
Rockford, IL 2.5 0.7
Topeka, KS 3.5 None
Wichita, KS 0.1 Trace
Kansas City, MO 5.1 None
St. Louis, MO None None

Four out of the six cities had over a half of an inch, so this is correct. St. Louis was the only city to not have snow on either day but most of the others went over the 0.5 inch total on one day. In fact, Kansas City’s 5.1 inches on February 21st broke their previous record of 3.6 set in 1997.

It seems to me that I keep lowballing snowfall amounts this season. That’ll be something for me to work on in the future.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 23-3 88.46%
NYS 11-2 84.62%
World 12-1 92.31%

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is almost 1.5% away from the goal. If the next two week’s forecasts are correct, 90% will be reached. I’d like to get the next forecast up by tomorrow. Unfortunately, work and online class kept me busy earlier this week so I couldn’t do a forecast for the current snow storm in New York State.

Have a great end to the week everyone, and remember snow means SLOW!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 13

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 19, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

It’s been a PSUSyr5 marathon to end the work week. Wednesday was the results of the GSC Forecast 12 and yesterday was the outcome of StWC Volume 2. Today is the new GSC forecast. You all deserve a break from me for the weekend. :)

It’s back to a temperature outlook for the Golden Snowball cities in this New York State forecast.

All five Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Sunday or Monday.

This time, a majority is not good enough. The last time I did that was the first NYS forecast, which featured none of the five getting measurable snowfall. Binghamton ruined that one. For the forecast to be correct, all GSB cities need to have their high temperatures be no more than 5 above or below their average highs on Sunday or Monday.

Illinois, Kansas and Missouri are the featured areas for the World forecast.

At least one third of the bigger cities in Illinois, Kansas and Missouri will total at least half of an inch of snow for Sunday and Monday.

There will be six cities involved in this forecast, 2 of the bigger cities from each of the three states. They are Chicago and Rockford from Illinois, Topeka and Wichita in Kansas and Missouri’s Kansas City and St. Louis. For the forecast to be correct, at least 2 of these six cities must have 0.5 inches or more combined snowfall on Sunday and Monday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 12 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 17, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

By tomorrow, I should have a solid idea as to the results of the latest edition of Stump the Weather Chump. I believe there was a correction made (perhaps having to do with missing data from the weekend, or with it being midway through the month at the time the correction was made, or any other reason) on Monday. Now on to the Golden SnowCast results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the Golden Snowball cities would have more total snowfall on Saturday and Sunday than on Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the two totals, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snow Totals
City Saturday and Sunday Monday and Tuesday
GSB Cities with more snow on the weekend: 3
Albany 0.1 5.3
Binghamton 0.6 2.4
Buffalo 1.6 0.2
Rochester 0.9 0.5
Syracuse 2.2 1.6

Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each had more snow on the weekend, so the forecast is correct. It is interesting to see how close the totals were for Rochester and Syracuse, and how far apart they are for Albany. I also find it interesting that each city, except for Rochester had over an inch of snow on at least one of the 2 day periods.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Kentucky and West Virginia will have a total of 2 inches of snow or more for Monday and Tuesday. The table below shows the snowfall amounts for each day and the total, as reported by the NWS.

Snow Totals in Kentucky and West Virginia
City Monday Tuesday Total
Cities with 2 or more inches total: 4
Charleston, WV 0.9 3.0 3.9
Huntington, WV 5.2 1.8 7.0
Lexington, KY 5.0 0.6 5.6
Louisville, KY 3.9 0.2 4.1

This forecast was correct. For me personally, if my snowfall prediction is within a few inches of the actual snowfall, I’m quite happy. In this case, I said 2 inches and both Charleston and Louisville were within 2.1 inches of my expectations. So I’m pretty satisfied with that result. Huntington and Lexington however, were a bit higher than anticipated. By the way, Lexington’s 5.0 on Monday broke a record for February 15th that was held since 1993 when they had 4 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 21-3 87.5%
NYS 10-2 83.33%
World 11-1 91.67%

Another 2 for 2 forecast and the percentage continues to inch toward the 90% goal. I need the next 6 forecasts to be correct to reach the mark. But it isn’t good enough to just get there, I have to finish there. I believe a good stopping point for this season will be the 20th forecast, so it would be another 8 forecasts for the 2009-2010 snow season.

Have a great night everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 12

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 13, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Since the latest Stump the Weather Chump involves snow for the Golden Snowball Cities for the weekend, the New York State forecast will be comparing weekend snowfall with the start of the work week.

At least one of Golden Snowball cities will have more snow total for the weekend than for Monday and Tuesday.

It’s a little bit of a blind forecast since the weekend totals are obviously unknown at this point. For the forecast to be correct the 48 hour total for Saturday and Sunday must be greater than the 48 hour total for Monday and Tuesday in at least one of the GSB cities.

The World forecast involves Kentucky and West Virginia.

At least half of the cities used for verification in Kentucky and West Virginia will total 2 inches or more of snow for Monday and Tuesday.

There are four cities involved in this: Charleston and Huntington, WV and Lexington and Louisville, KY. For the forecast to be correct, 2 or more of them must total at least 2 inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 11, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , , .

With all the excitement with the snow storms, I forgot to post my results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that one of the New York City reporting stations would have more total snow for the weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities. The table below shows the snowfall for the NYC reporting stations and the GSB cities on Saturday and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Weekend Snowfall in New York State
City Saturday Sunday
GSB Cities with less snowfall than NYC: 5
Central Park Trace None
JFK 1.6 None
La Guardia Trace None
Albany None None
Binghamton None 0.4
Buffalo Trace Trace
Rochester 1.0 Trace
Syracuse None Trace

JFK had 1.6 total, and all the GSB cities had an inch or lower. So this forecast was correct. Interesting to note the difference between the 3 NYC stations, Central Park and La Guardia both having a trace while JFK had over an inch. Binghamton was the only city to report measurable snowfall on Sunday.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 1 of Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC would have at least 10 inches of snow for the weekend. While it may look obvious that this held up, and wasn’t all that close, remember that a portion of the snow fell on Friday. The table below shows the snow totals for Saturday and Sunday for those cities, according to NWS.

Mid-Atlantic Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with 10 inches or more: 2
Baltimore, MD 17.0 None
Newark, NJ 0.4 None
Philadelphia, PA 22.0 None
Pittsburgh, PA 9.7 Trace
Washington, DC 9.1 None

With Baltimore and Philadelphia over the threshold, this forecast was correct. Pittsburgh and Washington, DC almost broke through the 10 inch plateau as well. All but Newark broke snowfall records for February 6th. In case you were wondering, Newark’s record for February 6th was set in 1978 with 17.9 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 19-3 86.36%
NYS 9-2 81.82%
World 10-1 90.91%

Another two for two forecast, and I’m inching toward the 90% goal. I have changed the table a little bit, now showing the percentage for each region, in addition to the overall. Forecast 12 should be up tomorrow. Lately, Thursdays and Fridays have been days when I’m less busy, which is why I’ve done forecasts for the weekend, or days close to it, in the recent weeks.

Have a great end of the work week!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 11

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on February 4, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , , .

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a comparison with New York City and the Golden Snowball cities.

New York City will have more snowfall this weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities.

I will be using the totals from Saturday and Sunday for verification. There are three NYC area reporting stations: Central Park, JFK and La Guardia. If one of those has more total snow for the weekend than either Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo Rochester or Syracuse, the forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look to the Mid-Atlantic region.

At least one of the five bigger Mid-Atlantic cities will have 10 inches or more of snow this weekend.

The five cities that will be used for this are Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC. If one ore more of those cities total at least 10 inches of snow for Saturday and Sunday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!