The Golden SnowCast

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 20 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 19, 2010
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In the New York State prediction, I believed that all of the Golden Snowball cities would have below average high temperatures on either Saturday or Sunday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s high temperature data for both days.

New York State High Temperatures
City Saturday Average/Recorded Sunday Average/Recorded
GSB Cities with below average temperatures: 5
Albany 58/49 58/53
Binghamton 54/50 54/49
Buffalo 55/43 55/53
Rochester 56/46 56/56
Syracuse 56/49 57/55

All five were below average on Saturday, so the forecast is correct. Rochester was the only one to not be below average on both days, hitting average exactly on Sunday. Most cities were warmer on Sunday than Saturday, only Binghamton had cooler Sunday high temperatures than Saturday’s.

In the World forecast, I believed that a majority of the southern New England reporting stations would total a half an inch of rain or more from Friday through Sunday. The table below shows the daily precipitation amounts for each city, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Southern New England Rainfall
City Friday Saturday Sunday
Cities with 0.5 inches or more total: 3
Boston, MA 0.39 0.15 0.08
Bridgeport, CT 0.25 0.11 None
Hartford, CT 0.47 0.02 Trace
Providence, RI 0.41 0.11 Trace
Worcester, MA 0.36 0.21 Trace

Boston, Providence and Worcester total over 0.5, so the forecast is correct. Both Connecticut cities were under the mark. All of the cities had the majority of the rainfall on Friday and Boston was the only city to get measurable precipitation on Sunday.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 36-4 90%
NYS 18-2 90%
World 18-2 90%

It took all 20, but the 90% mark has been met! Both the NYS and World forecasts finished 18-2, and the worst forecast of the season was snowfall for Pennsylvania back in forecast 4. Only one forecast batch went 0-2, which also happens to be forecast 4. The other 2 misses were forecast 1′s NYS outlook and forecast 14′s World prediction. I’m looking forward to next season, as there are some changes on the way.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 20

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 15, 2010
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It’s the last Golden SnowCast Forecast for the 2009-10 season. To start things off, as always, is the New York State prediction. This involves a look at high temperatures for the weekend.

All of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures below average on either Saturday or Sunday.

After record breaking heat to start the month, temperatures look to be relatively cool this weekend for Upstate New York. For the forecast to be correct, on either Saturday or Sunday, all five GSB cities must have high temperatures below average highs.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at rainfall in the southern New England states.

A majority of the reporting stations in southern New England will total a half an inch of rain or more from Friday to Sunday.

Five reporting stations that will be used for verifying the forecast: Bridgeport and Hartford, CT, Boston and Worcester, MA, and Providence, RI. If rainfall totals are a half an inch or more in at least 3 of those cities, the forecast will be correct.

Enjoy the rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 19 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 13, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I stated that at least 2 of the Golden Snowball cities would have some frozen precipitation on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows which cities had frozen precipitation, according to the National Weather Service.

New York State Frozen Precipitation
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with frozen precipitation: 5
Albany No Yes
Binghamton Yes Yes
Buffalo Yes Yes
Rochester Yes No
Syracuse Yes Yes

Turns out that all five did, none of which had measurable frozen precipitation. The number is not what mattered, just if it was there, so the forecast is correct. Three of them, Binghamton, Buffalo and Syracuse, had frozen precipitation on both days.

For the World forecast, I believed that a majority of the Nevada reporting stations would have lows within 5 degrees of average on either Friday or Saturday. The table below show the National Weather Service’s reported low temperatures.

Nevada Low Temperatures
City Friday Average/Reported Saturday Average/Reported
Nevada Cities with low temperatures within 5 degrees of average: 7
Elko 29/24 29/29
Ely 25/26 25/25
Eureka 24/25 24/24
Las Vegas 52/51 52/61
Reno 32/36 32/41
Tonopah 33/35 33/35
Winnemucca 29/27 29/34

All seven had at least one day with low temperatures within five degrees of average, so the forecast is correct. Las Vegas and Reno were the only two not to have that occur on both days. Elko, Ely and Eureka were spot on with average on Saturday.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 34-4 89.47%
NYS 17-2 89.47%
World 17-2 89.47%

Another 2 for 2 week, and 90% is still possible going into the final batch of the season. Both NYS and World forecasts must be correct for the target to be met. A new scoring system will likely be in place next year. I believe I mentioned that earlier.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 19

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 7, 2010
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While it has felt more like Summer than Spring in many places in the United States, Winter may have one last gasp. The New York State forecast involves frozen precipitation to the start of the weekend.

At least 2 of the Golden Snowball cities will have frozen precipitation on Friday or Saturday.

No accumulation with this, just an event. As long as there is some accumulation (even a trace) of frozen precipitation noted on the climate summaries of at least 2 of the five GSB cities, this forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at low temperatures in Nevada.

A majority of the Nevada reporting stations will have low temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Friday or Saturday.

The reporting stations in Nevada are Elko, Ely, Eureka, Las Vegas, Reno, Tonopah and Winnemucca. The forecast will be deemed correct if four or more of them have low temperatures within 5 degrees of average on either Friday or Saturday.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 18 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 4, 2010
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In the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of Golden Snowball cities would break record high temperatures on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows high temperatures on both days, with asterisks indicating new records, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Saturday Highs
GSB Cities with new record highs: 5
Albany 77* 77
Binghamton 79* 79
Buffalo 79* 84*
Rochester 86* 87*
Syracuse 87* 87*

All five broke records on Friday and three records were broken on Saturday, so this forecast is correct. Binghamton’s 79 on Friday tied a record set in 1963. The oldest record that was broken was Buffalo’s April 2nd high of 72 in 1945.

For the World forecast, I believed that a majority of five chosen European cities would report rain on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows if rain was noted in weather.com’s hourly reports.

Europe Rain
City Friday Saturday
European cities with rain on either day: 4
Berlin No Yes
London Yes Yes
Madrid No Yes
Paris Yes Yes
Rome No No

Two had rain on Friday, but four had rain on Saturday, so this forecast is correct. Rome was the only city not have rain on either day. London and Paris had some rain on both days.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 32-4 88.89%
NYS 16-2 88.89%
World 16-2 88.89%

It’s another perfect batch and the percentage is the highest it’s been this season. Two NYS and two World forecasts remain, all of which must be correct in order to reach the goal.

Happy Easter everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 18

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 31, 2010
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Taking a look back at the forecasts in March, there was a severe lack of snow predictions. That trend looks to continue for at least the start of April. In fact, the New York State forecast involves a look at record heat.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will break record highs on either Friday or Saturday.

The GSB cities should have highs around 80 degrees on both days. If that holds true, records will likely fall. In order for my prediction to be correct, at least 3 cities must break record high temperatures on either Friday or Saturday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Europe. That’s right, it’s the second time the World forecast has gone outside of the United States.

A majority of the five chosen European cities will have rain on either Friday or Saturday.

The five chosen cities are Berlin, London, Madrid, Paris and Rome. I am not sure where I’d get data on the numbers, so all I am looking for is whether it rains or not. I’ll be using the hourly reports from weather.com to verify the forecast. If three or more have rain in any of the hourly reports on Friday or Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Enjoy the rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 30, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have warmer lows on Sunday and Monday than Friday’s highs. The table below compares the temperatures from each day, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Sunday Lows Monday Lows
GSB Cities with warmer low temperatures: 5
Albany 40 31 41
Binghamton 32 28 37
Buffalo 31 37 38
Rochester 33 38 37
Syracuse 33 34 40

All five had warmer low temperatures on Monday than Friday’s highs, and three of the five had warmer lows on Sunday, so this forecast is correct. As an interesting note, three of the five had Monday’s lows warmer than Friday’s highs by 5 degrees or more.

My World prediction stated that all of the selected cities in Texas would have mostly sunny skies on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the cloud cover for the five cities, according to the National Weather Service.

Texas Sky Cover
City Sunday Monday
Texas cities with under .5 sky cover: 5
Austin 0.1 0.0
Corpus Cristi 0.3 0.0
Dallas 0.2 0.0
El Paso 0.0 0.1
San Antonio 0.1 0.0

All five cities were lower than 0.5 on both days, so the forecast is correct. As a note, Houston did not have sky cover data available, so I used the next biggest city that had NWS reports, which was Corpus Cristi.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 30-4 88.23%
NYS 15-2 88.23%
World 15-2 88.23%

Another perfect week, and the goal is still possible. Just three batches of forecasts remain, and all six predictions must come true for the 90% threshold to be met.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 26, 2010
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As we’re nearing the end of March, most areas seem to be in the clear for snow…at least for now.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a look at temperatures, comparing today’s highs with lows to start next week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have warmer low temperatures on either Sunday or Monday than Friday’s high temperatures.

Most of the GSB cities had high temperatures hovering around freezing. Albany is the only one that reached 40, doing so at about 1:30 this morning. The forecast will be correct if at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities have Friday’s high is colder than either Sunday or Monday’s low temperatures.

For the World forecast, it’s a cloud cover forecast for Texas.

All of the five selected cities in Texas will have more sun than clouds on either Sunday or Monday.

I believe this is the first time I’ve done a cloud cover prediction in the Golden SnowCast. The five cities used for verification are Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio. If the reported cloud cover is under 0.5 for all five cities on either day, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 21, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the five Golden Snowball cities would have warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with warmer high temperatures on Saturday: 2
Albany 68 70
Binghamton 63 65
Buffalo 53 48
Rochester 65 51
Syracuse 64 56

Albany and Binghamton pulled through and the forecast is correct. A pretty substantial drop occured in Rochester, high temperatures were almost 15 degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. All the other cities had a single digit difference in high temperatures.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least one of the chosen cities in Colorado would have more snow on Friday than at least one of the chosen cities in Wisconsin would have on Saturday. The table below shows snowfall amounts in Colorado and Wisconsin for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Colorado and Wisconsin Snowfall
City Friday Saturday
Colorado cities with more snow: 3
Colorado Springs, CO 0.9 None
Denver, CO 1.7 None
Pueblo, CO 2.2 None
Green Bay, WI Trace None
Madison, WI 1.1 0.7
Milwaukee, WI Trace 0.8

The lowest of the Wisconsin cities was Green Bay, getting no snowfall on Saturday. All three Colorado cities had snowfall on Friday, so this forecast is correct. As it turns out, all three of the Colorado cities had more snow on Friday than any of the Wisconsin cities did on Saturday. As an interesting note, Madison had more snow on Friday than Colorado Springs did, and a higher two day total than either Colorado Springs or Denver.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 28-4 87.5%
NYS 14-2 87.5%
World 14-2 87.5%

Both forecasts were correct and the quest for 90% continues. The plan is to go up to four more forecasts. If I don’t have any more bye weeks, the end of this season’s Golden SnowCast should be in mid-April. I’m thinking about changing things up for next season, going toward more of a targeted scoring system (the closer to actual results the forecast is, the more points received), and adding a longer range forecast. More details on that will likely be given either toward the end of this season, or the beginning of the 2010-11 campaign.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 17, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

First, a quick review on how the Golden SnowCast works. In each forecast post, I make two predictions, one for New York State (home of the Golden Snowball contest) and one for anywhere else in the World (most often somewhere in the USA). The idea is to make forecasts with some certainty to them. To achieve this, there will be no waffle words like “chance of” in any of the predictions. The goal is 90% accuracy by the end of the season.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

Spring officially arrives on Saturday, so I thought it would be a good idea to have some comparisons in my predictions this time.

Up first, as always, is the New York State outlook. Once again, it involves temperatures, but this time, it’s a look at the last day of Winter and the first day of Spring.

At least one of the Golden Snowball Cities will have warmer Saturday highs than Friday highs.

A cold front will be moving into the area on Saturday, which complicated this forecast. I initially said a majority would have warmer temperatures on Saturday, but now my confidence in that has shrunk. If at least one of the five GSB cities has warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday, this forecast will be correct.

While there is warming in New York State, there is still signs of Winter in the United States. The World forecast compares snow totals for cities in Colorado and Wisconsin.

At least one of the 3 chosen Colorado cities will have more snow on Friday than one or more of the 3 selected Wisconsin cities receive on Saturday.

The cities used for verifying this forecast are Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo in Colorado and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin. If any one of the Colorado cities has more snow on Friday than any one of the Wisconsin cities receives on Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone!