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Golden SnowCast Forecast 19 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 13, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I stated that at least 2 of the Golden Snowball cities would have some frozen precipitation on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows which cities had frozen precipitation, according to the National Weather Service.

New York State Frozen Precipitation
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with frozen precipitation: 5
Albany No Yes
Binghamton Yes Yes
Buffalo Yes Yes
Rochester Yes No
Syracuse Yes Yes

Turns out that all five did, none of which had measurable frozen precipitation. The number is not what mattered, just if it was there, so the forecast is correct. Three of them, Binghamton, Buffalo and Syracuse, had frozen precipitation on both days.

For the World forecast, I believed that a majority of the Nevada reporting stations would have lows within 5 degrees of average on either Friday or Saturday. The table below show the National Weather Service’s reported low temperatures.

Nevada Low Temperatures
City Friday Average/Reported Saturday Average/Reported
Nevada Cities with low temperatures within 5 degrees of average: 7
Elko 29/24 29/29
Ely 25/26 25/25
Eureka 24/25 24/24
Las Vegas 52/51 52/61
Reno 32/36 32/41
Tonopah 33/35 33/35
Winnemucca 29/27 29/34

All seven had at least one day with low temperatures within five degrees of average, so the forecast is correct. Las Vegas and Reno were the only two not to have that occur on both days. Elko, Ely and Eureka were spot on with average on Saturday.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 34-4 89.47%
NYS 17-2 89.47%
World 17-2 89.47%

Another 2 for 2 week, and 90% is still possible going into the final batch of the season. Both NYS and World forecasts must be correct for the target to be met. A new scoring system will likely be in place next year. I believe I mentioned that earlier.

Have a great week everyone!

All Snowiest Big Cities Updated 4/12/10

Posted by Patrick on April 12, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , , .

Yeah I know it’s about time huh? It’s been tough trying to get an update in with the decent weather we have been having. I just cut the lawn yesterday and I don’t think too many of us are thinking about snow right now. It’s getting close to that time to wrapping up the contest for snowiest city in the United States with a population of 100,000 or more. We still have some stats to check before the contest ends which is the last day of April and I don’t think it’s a lock yet seeing how some cities are still getting snow.

Here in the northeast it’s been pretty decent with just a trace of snow last Friday. Most of the days have been 50 + with a few days in the 80′s which is very unusual for April. With the wacky way this winter has been I’m a little nervous as to what the summer will bring across the United States. Only a handful had any snow to report this update so unless one of the cities near the top start piling it on I’ll most likely do another update early next week. If I see some of the top 10 cities are getting some snow I’ll do an update sooner.

Have a Super Week All!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 19

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 7, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

While it has felt more like Summer than Spring in many places in the United States, Winter may have one last gasp. The New York State forecast involves frozen precipitation to the start of the weekend.

At least 2 of the Golden Snowball cities will have frozen precipitation on Friday or Saturday.

No accumulation with this, just an event. As long as there is some accumulation (even a trace) of frozen precipitation noted on the climate summaries of at least 2 of the five GSB cities, this forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at low temperatures in Nevada.

A majority of the Nevada reporting stations will have low temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Friday or Saturday.

The reporting stations in Nevada are Elko, Ely, Eureka, Las Vegas, Reno, Tonopah and Winnemucca. The forecast will be deemed correct if four or more of them have low temperatures within 5 degrees of average on either Friday or Saturday.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 18 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 4, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

In the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of Golden Snowball cities would break record high temperatures on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows high temperatures on both days, with asterisks indicating new records, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Saturday Highs
GSB Cities with new record highs: 5
Albany 77* 77
Binghamton 79* 79
Buffalo 79* 84*
Rochester 86* 87*
Syracuse 87* 87*

All five broke records on Friday and three records were broken on Saturday, so this forecast is correct. Binghamton’s 79 on Friday tied a record set in 1963. The oldest record that was broken was Buffalo’s April 2nd high of 72 in 1945.

For the World forecast, I believed that a majority of five chosen European cities would report rain on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows if rain was noted in weather.com’s hourly reports.

Europe Rain
City Friday Saturday
European cities with rain on either day: 4
Berlin No Yes
London Yes Yes
Madrid No Yes
Paris Yes Yes
Rome No No

Two had rain on Friday, but four had rain on Saturday, so this forecast is correct. Rome was the only city not have rain on either day. London and Paris had some rain on both days.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 32-4 88.89%
NYS 16-2 88.89%
World 16-2 88.89%

It’s another perfect batch and the percentage is the highest it’s been this season. Two NYS and two World forecasts remain, all of which must be correct in order to reach the goal.

Happy Easter everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 18

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 31, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

Taking a look back at the forecasts in March, there was a severe lack of snow predictions. That trend looks to continue for at least the start of April. In fact, the New York State forecast involves a look at record heat.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will break record highs on either Friday or Saturday.

The GSB cities should have highs around 80 degrees on both days. If that holds true, records will likely fall. In order for my prediction to be correct, at least 3 cities must break record high temperatures on either Friday or Saturday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Europe. That’s right, it’s the second time the World forecast has gone outside of the United States.

A majority of the five chosen European cities will have rain on either Friday or Saturday.

The five chosen cities are Berlin, London, Madrid, Paris and Rome. I am not sure where I’d get data on the numbers, so all I am looking for is whether it rains or not. I’ll be using the hourly reports from weather.com to verify the forecast. If three or more have rain in any of the hourly reports on Friday or Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Enjoy the rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 30, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have warmer lows on Sunday and Monday than Friday’s highs. The table below compares the temperatures from each day, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Sunday Lows Monday Lows
GSB Cities with warmer low temperatures: 5
Albany 40 31 41
Binghamton 32 28 37
Buffalo 31 37 38
Rochester 33 38 37
Syracuse 33 34 40

All five had warmer low temperatures on Monday than Friday’s highs, and three of the five had warmer lows on Sunday, so this forecast is correct. As an interesting note, three of the five had Monday’s lows warmer than Friday’s highs by 5 degrees or more.

My World prediction stated that all of the selected cities in Texas would have mostly sunny skies on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the cloud cover for the five cities, according to the National Weather Service.

Texas Sky Cover
City Sunday Monday
Texas cities with under .5 sky cover: 5
Austin 0.1 0.0
Corpus Cristi 0.3 0.0
Dallas 0.2 0.0
El Paso 0.0 0.1
San Antonio 0.1 0.0

All five cities were lower than 0.5 on both days, so the forecast is correct. As a note, Houston did not have sky cover data available, so I used the next biggest city that had NWS reports, which was Corpus Cristi.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 30-4 88.23%
NYS 15-2 88.23%
World 15-2 88.23%

Another perfect week, and the goal is still possible. Just three batches of forecasts remain, and all six predictions must come true for the 90% threshold to be met.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 26, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

As we’re nearing the end of March, most areas seem to be in the clear for snow…at least for now.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a look at temperatures, comparing today’s highs with lows to start next week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have warmer low temperatures on either Sunday or Monday than Friday’s high temperatures.

Most of the GSB cities had high temperatures hovering around freezing. Albany is the only one that reached 40, doing so at about 1:30 this morning. The forecast will be correct if at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities have Friday’s high is colder than either Sunday or Monday’s low temperatures.

For the World forecast, it’s a cloud cover forecast for Texas.

All of the five selected cities in Texas will have more sun than clouds on either Sunday or Monday.

I believe this is the first time I’ve done a cloud cover prediction in the Golden SnowCast. The five cities used for verification are Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio. If the reported cloud cover is under 0.5 for all five cities on either day, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Colorado Cities Plowing Their Way to Top

Posted by Patrick on March 25, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , , .

Lakewood and Fort Collins are on the move with the latest storm to hit Colorado. They both climbed several spots on the snow mountain. The weather in Syracuse has been pretty decent so they better start getting a little nervous about winning the first national snow contest for a city with a population of 100,000 or more.

It’s still just a matter of a storm or two for just about any of the top 10 Golden Snow Globe cities to move to the top. The North East has had some unusually warm weather with perhaps some snow in the forecast for early next week but as of now it doesn’t look like much. I’m still trying to find some snow stats for a few of the Colorado cities and will be contacting NOAA to see if they have them. Come the end of this seasons contest I will also talk with the National Weather Service to make sure we have the right city as the winner. Like I’ve mentioned in the past, this season is kind of a test run to get all the bugs out and I have several plans to make the contest more fun and interesting for the future seasons. Suggestions are always welcome.

Have a Great Week All and GO CUSE!!!! NCAA that is ;)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 21, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the five Golden Snowball cities would have warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with warmer high temperatures on Saturday: 2
Albany 68 70
Binghamton 63 65
Buffalo 53 48
Rochester 65 51
Syracuse 64 56

Albany and Binghamton pulled through and the forecast is correct. A pretty substantial drop occured in Rochester, high temperatures were almost 15 degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. All the other cities had a single digit difference in high temperatures.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least one of the chosen cities in Colorado would have more snow on Friday than at least one of the chosen cities in Wisconsin would have on Saturday. The table below shows snowfall amounts in Colorado and Wisconsin for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Colorado and Wisconsin Snowfall
City Friday Saturday
Colorado cities with more snow: 3
Colorado Springs, CO 0.9 None
Denver, CO 1.7 None
Pueblo, CO 2.2 None
Green Bay, WI Trace None
Madison, WI 1.1 0.7
Milwaukee, WI Trace 0.8

The lowest of the Wisconsin cities was Green Bay, getting no snowfall on Saturday. All three Colorado cities had snowfall on Friday, so this forecast is correct. As it turns out, all three of the Colorado cities had more snow on Friday than any of the Wisconsin cities did on Saturday. As an interesting note, Madison had more snow on Friday than Colorado Springs did, and a higher two day total than either Colorado Springs or Denver.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 28-4 87.5%
NYS 14-2 87.5%
World 14-2 87.5%

Both forecasts were correct and the quest for 90% continues. The plan is to go up to four more forecasts. If I don’t have any more bye weeks, the end of this season’s Golden SnowCast should be in mid-April. I’m thinking about changing things up for next season, going toward more of a targeted scoring system (the closer to actual results the forecast is, the more points received), and adding a longer range forecast. More details on that will likely be given either toward the end of this season, or the beginning of the 2010-11 campaign.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 17, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

First, a quick review on how the Golden SnowCast works. In each forecast post, I make two predictions, one for New York State (home of the Golden Snowball contest) and one for anywhere else in the World (most often somewhere in the USA). The idea is to make forecasts with some certainty to them. To achieve this, there will be no waffle words like “chance of” in any of the predictions. The goal is 90% accuracy by the end of the season.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

Spring officially arrives on Saturday, so I thought it would be a good idea to have some comparisons in my predictions this time.

Up first, as always, is the New York State outlook. Once again, it involves temperatures, but this time, it’s a look at the last day of Winter and the first day of Spring.

At least one of the Golden Snowball Cities will have warmer Saturday highs than Friday highs.

A cold front will be moving into the area on Saturday, which complicated this forecast. I initially said a majority would have warmer temperatures on Saturday, but now my confidence in that has shrunk. If at least one of the five GSB cities has warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday, this forecast will be correct.

While there is warming in New York State, there is still signs of Winter in the United States. The World forecast compares snow totals for cities in Colorado and Wisconsin.

At least one of the 3 chosen Colorado cities will have more snow on Friday than one or more of the 3 selected Wisconsin cities receive on Saturday.

The cities used for verifying this forecast are Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo in Colorado and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin. If any one of the Colorado cities has more snow on Friday than any one of the Wisconsin cities receives on Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone!