new york weather

All posts tagged new york weather

The Snow Storm is Wrapping Up

Posted by Patrick on December 20, 2009
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , .

Ok! Most of the snowiest US city stats have been updated and man were there some changes. No to the top 10 are Philadelphia, Pa, Washington, (Dulles) and ummmm, errrr Baltimore, Maryland. Yup you read it right. There are still a couple to report though.

After that storm went through Philly, Pa picked up 23.2 inches of snow which I find kind of funny because my brother lives there and is from Syracuse originally. The part that is funny is that he always complains that Philly doesn’t get any snow. Well they finally get close to a couple of feet of snow and guess what. He is coming to Syracuse today where there is no snow. Bummer for him I guess :)

Baltimore was next with 22.2 inches of snowfall which has to be way over their annual snowfall totals I would think. When I have some tie I’ll try and see which cities are already over their annual snow totals already. The Dulles airport picked up 21 inches which is just as amazing as some of the other cities. Most of these stats were reported around 5:00 pm give or take a couple of hours so the chances are that there will be some changes come tomorrow once everything catches up.

The cities that fell out of the top 10 were Buffalo, New York, Madison Wisconsin, Green Bay and Omaha, Nebraska. I’m sure at least a couple of those cities won’t be out for too long.

Have a Super Week All!!!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 4

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 17, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

It’s starting to look and feel more like winter in New York State. There will be some warm up over the weekend, which brings us to the NYS forecast.

A majority of the Golden Snowball cities will have their Saturday and Sunday low temperatures be within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high.

This is sort of a blind forecast in that obviously Thursday’s high has not yet been set. I’m not sure if this is an indication of how cold Thursday will be, how much warmer the weekend will be, or a combination of both. Either way, for the forecast to be correct, both Saturday and Sunday’s low temperatures must be within 5 degrees of Thursdays high in at least 3 out of the 5 GSB cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Pennsylvania.

All of the four of Pennsylvania’s major cities will have at least a trace, but no more than a half of an inch of snow on Saturday.

There will be snow in Pennsylvania. However, it looks to be no big deal, at least as far as PA’s major cities go. The four major cities in PA are Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. As long as snow accumulation on Saturday falls between a trace and a half of an inch in all four cities, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great end of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 3 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 14, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Golden Snowball cities would have wind gusts of 30 mph or more on Friday. The table below shows the highest speeds for sustained wind and wind gusts, according to the National Weather Service.

Friday New York State Wind Speeds
City Sustained Wind Wind Gusts
Cities with wind gusts over 30 mph: 5
Albany 30 41
Binghamton 28 37
Buffalo 31 43
Rochester 35 45
Syracuse 37 47

This one proved to be correct. Not only did four out of five GSB cities have wind gusts over 40 mph (well above my mark), all but Binghamton had sustained winds of 30 mph or more on Friday. A bit windier than I anticipated. It does count as a correct forecast, but I would have liked the gust numbers to have been a little closer to 30 mph.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 1 of Ontario, Canada’s big three cities (Hamilton, Ottawa and Toronto) would be at least 5 degrees below average on either Friday or Saturday. The table shows The Weather Channel’s information for the two days.

Ontario, Canada High Temperatures
City Friday Average/Recorded Saturday Average/Recorded
Cities with high temperatures 5 degrees or more below average: 3
Hamilton 34/19 34/34
Ottawa 27/21 26/27
Toronto 36/23 35/39

This one also turned out to be true, and it wasn’t very close on Friday. Interesting to note the nice warm up on Saturday, and Hamilton ended up hitting their average for that day. Again, I wish the numbers would have been a little bit closer to my threshold, as only Ottawa produced a single digit difference.

While it is nice to be right, these forecasts were a bit off the mark. Sure, it still benefited me here, but it still doesn’t quite sit right with me. Of course, it may very well have just been the luck of the draw this weekend. But if this trend continues for the rest of the month, I’ll look into changing things up in 2010.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS 2-1
World 3-0
Overall 5-1

Regardless, I’m now over 80% for the season. Why do I get the feeling that the miss on Buffalo with my first forecast is going to haunt me one way or another?

Have a great week all!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 3

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 9, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

Unfortunately, this forecast is a bit late. I generally want to get forecasts up for 2 to 3 days in advance. I was ready to do one on Monday for Wednesday and Thursday, but all the good stuff was on Tuesday. So, a decision had to be made…do I make a forecast for 1 day in advance with the knowledge of there being all sorts of winter weather advisories, which would make the forecasts a bit easier (at least in theory), or do I wait a little bit and find something to forecast for the weekend? I chose the second option.

For the New York State forecast, it’s back to just the Golden Snowball cities.

At least half of the Golden Snowball cities will have wind gusts of over 30 mph on Friday.

Looks to be a breezy day on Friday. As a note, there is currently a high wind warning out for a portion of New York State, but that expires on Thursday evening (at least as of the time of this forecast). So I expect breezy conditions to continue into Friday but the wind should not be as strong as on Thursday. For my forecast to be correct, 3 or more of the Golden Snowball cities must have stronger than 30 mph wind gusts.

For the World forecast, it’s a trip up north to Canada. We’re putting the Globe into the Golden Snow Globe, and World into the World forecast all in one step.

At least 1 of the big Ontario cities will have their high temperature 5 degrees or more below average on Friday or Saturday.

This is basically the inverse of my first World forecast. It looks to be a chilly day in Ontario, even for their standards. There are three Ontario metropolitan areas with populations over 500,000: Toronto, Ottawa and Hamilton. If one or more of those has a high temperature that is at least 5 degrees below average on Friday or Saturday, the forecast will be correct. Since the forecast is outside the US borders, verification will come from The Weather Channel.

Have a great weekend all!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 2 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 7, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

Better late than never, here are the results to my 2nd set of forecasts.

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that at least one of the New York City reporting stations would have more precipitation than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities on either Wednesday or Thursday. The chart below compares the NYC reporting station with the most precipitation to the GSB city with the least precipitation. All stats come from the National Weather Service.

New York State Precipitation
Day Most Precipitation in NYC Least Precipitation among GSB cities
Days when NYC had more precipitation: 2
Wednesday 0.45 (Central Park) 0.07 (Binghamton)
Thursday 0.73 (Central Park) 0.04 (Syracuse)

That forecast proved to be correct. As it turned out, several GSB cities had less precipitation than the NYC reporting stations on both days. Only Albany (0.80 Thursday) and Buffalo (0.52 Wednesday) had more than Central Park. I find it interesting that Central Park had the most precipitation in the NYC area on Wednesday and Thursday.

For the World forecast, the prediction was that at least one of the four major cities in Michigan (Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing) would receive an inch or more of snow. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for each city.

Michigan Snowfall
Day Detroit Flint Grand Rapids Lansing
Cities with an inch of snow or more: 1
Wednesday None None None None
Thursday None 0.3 2.4 0.2

That forecast also turned out to be true. I was a little nervous about it after Wednesday’s no show of snow. But Thursday saved the forecast as Grand Rapids met the target, receiving over 2 inches of snow.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 75%
NYS 1-1
World 2-0
Overall 3-1

Both forecasts held up, and as a result, my percentage has increased to 75%. It’s still very early in the season, though. In fact, Calendar Winter does not begin for another few weeks. When we get into the bulk of Winter, the Golden SnowCast may actually be able to have forecasts with more snow in them. Should be fun to see how the forecasts turn out when that time comes.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 2

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 30, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

This forecast is up a little bit earlier than I anticipated. That’s mainly due to interesting weather happening before the weekend and I want to get these forecasts up a few days in advance of the events.

For the New York State forecast, we’re getting New York City into the mix with the Golden Snowball cities.

At least one Golden Snowball city will receive less precipitation than one of the New York City reporting stations on either Wednesday or Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be soggy for the state, but especially for NYC. For those of you wondering, there are three NYC reporting stations that will be used in verifying the forecast: Central Park, LaGuardia Airport and JFK Airport. If any one of them receive more precipitation than any one of the GSB cities, on either Wednesday or Thursday, this forecast will be correct.

For the world forecast, I’m looking at Michigan for some snow.

At least one of Michigan’s major cities will have an inch or more of snowfall on Wednesday or Thursday.

Looks to be an interesting part of the week for the Michigan area, though I imagine an inch of snow is nothing to be too worked up about in that region. There are four major reporting areas that will be used for this forecast: Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing. For my forecast to be correct, there must be at least an inch of snow measured at one ore more of the four sites.

As said earlier today, have a great week all!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 1 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 30, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that none of the Golden Snowball cities would have measurable snowfall on any day between Friday and Sunday. The table below shows how much snow each city had as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snowfall
Day Albany Binghamton Buffalo Rochester Syracuse
Cities with no measurable snow each day: 4
Friday Trace 0.8 None None Trace
Saturday None Trace None None None
Sunday None None None None None

That forecast proved to be wrong. It was Binghamton that spoiled the forecast, and it didn’t take very long for that to happen. The other cities did their part. Close, but not close enough.

For the World pick, I said that at least 2 of the 4 major cities in Idaho, Montana and Utah would be within 5 degrees of their average highs and lows on Friday. The table below shows what the results are as reported by the National Weather Service and the Brigham Young University weather station.

Mountain West Friday Temperatures
City Average High/Low Recorded High/Low
Cities within 5 degrees of average highs and lows: 2
Billings, MT 38/22 52/35
Boise, ID 42/29 39/30
Provo, UT 43/27 63/26
Salt Lake City, UT 43/27 39/23

That forecast turned out to be correct, barely. Interesting to note that the two that were not within 5 degrees were well above their average highs with Billings almost 15 over and Provo 20 above average.

As a side note, I try to use National Weather Service data when available. In the case of Provo, I used The Weather Channel to find the average temperatures and the BYU station for the actual temperatures as there is not an official NWS station in Provo. In some cases (usually with unofficial stations such as BYU’s), a “day” can have different start times. For example, the BYU page lists the day as 24 hours between 5pm local time while stats kept at Penn State’s weather station for State College, PA (also unofficial) are 24 hours between 7am EST/8am EDT. NWS information is updated a few times a day, with data available sometime after midnight for the previous day. It’s this data that I’ll typically use when verifying the accuracy of my forecasts if available for the given city.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 50%
NYS 0-1
World 1-0
Overall 1-1

So, I’m struggling out of the gate. To gain some perspective on this, I’d need to get the next 8 straight forecasts correct to get to my goal of 90%. Only 2 predictions are done at a time though, so when the next batch of forecasts come out, I’ll be shooting to reach 75% overall. I expect to have that forecast done by midweek.

Have a great week everyone.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 1

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 25, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

Some people dream of a white Christmas, but for me, it just wouldn’t feel right if I didn’t have a white Thanksgiving weekend. So, for the New York State forecast, we’re looking into snow for the weekend.

None of the five Golden Snowball Cities will receive measurable snowfall on any day from Friday through Sunday.

There will be snow, however it does not appear to be much in the way of precipitation. Also, some of the precip will be rain, which means less snow falling. So, for my forecast to be correct, all five of Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse must not gain a tenth of an inch or more on any day this weekend.

For the World forecast, we’re moving to the Mountain West, in particular, Idaho, Montana and Utah, for some temperature forecasts.

At least half of the major cities in Idaho, Montana and Utah will be within 5 degrees of normal highs and lows on Friday.

Looks to be an about average day on Friday for that region. For those wondering, I am using Boise, ID, Billings, MT and Salt Lake City and Provo, UT as the major cities in the area. For my forecast to be right, at least 2 of them must be within 5 degrees of both their average high and low temperatures.

Happy Thanksgiving all!