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Golden SnowCast Forecast 8 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 20, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, it was a 2 for 1 special. I believed a majority of the cities would have above freezing high temperatures and no measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures and snowfall for Monday, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs and Snowfall in New York State
City High Snowfall
Cities with high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall: 4
Albany 41 0.7
Binghamton 37 Trace
Buffalo 36 None
Rochester 37 None
Syracuse 39 Trace

Each of the five cities was above freezing. Only Albany had measurable snowfall while both Binghamton and Syracuse reported a trace. The prediction was correct. Interesting to note that Albany had the highest high temperature on Monday, yet still managed over a half inch of snow.

For the World Forecast, I believed that 2 out of the 4 big cities in Arizona and Nevada would have rain on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for the four cities.

Arizona and Nevada Rainfall
City Sunday Monday
Cities with rain on either Sunday or Monday: 3
Las Vegas, NV None 0.04
Phoenix, AZ None 0.01
Reno, NV Trace 0.06
Tucson, AZ None None

This forecast was correct as well. Tucson was the only of the four not to have any rain on either day. The other three all had rain on Monday. Reno was the only one to have any sort of rain on Sunday, with just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 81.25%
NYS 6-2
World 7-1
Overall 13-3

Two more correct predictions and the percentage is back over 80%. I still have a bit of work to do to get up to 90%, as I need the next 7 weeks (14 predictions) to be perfect to reach that mark. At the very worst, I have more breathing room over 50%, as it would take 10 straight missed predictions to fall to that level.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 19, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , .

On January 18th, an anonymous commenter on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know the date when 3 out of 5 Golden Snowball cities will have 4 more inches of snow than their current totals.

A quick look indicates that it will be relatively quiet snow-wise for most of the GSB cities for the week. After that, forecasts generally fall apart, so this is where the fun (and the “shot in the dark”) begins. I’m targeting February 1st as the day in question.

This is where the modification comes in to play. Since it is well beyond the 2-3 day range that is ideal for me (forecasts for a few days in advance are what I gave as a part of Penn State’s Campus Weather Service and the 2-3 day range is currently used with the Golden SnowCast), I am going to give myself a 3 day window on either side.

The date when at least 3 GSB cities increase their snow totals by 4 inches or more from today (using the 1/19 afternoon updates as the starting point) will be between January 29th and February 4th.

Here are the snow totals from the 1/19 afternoon updates:
Albany 19.8
Binghamton 39.3
Buffalo 48.7
Rochester 47.9
Syracuse 58.2

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, feel free to leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range, but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 8

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 14, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

The roads have been pretty dry for me in the past few days, and it’s not because of the plows. Temperatures have warmed up a little and snowfall has been minimal for the Golden Snowball cities, especially when compared to the end of December and start of January.

A majority of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall on Monday.

A little change of pace for this prediction. Usually the Golden SnowCast focuses on one variable, but this time it’s snow and temperatures. For the forecast to be correct, at least 3 of the cities need to have high temperatures above freezing AND have snowfall below a tenth of an inch.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Arizona and Nevada.

At least half of the four major reporting stations in Arizona and Nevada will have rain on Sunday or Monday.

Didn’t see that one coming, did you? The four reporting stations are Las Vegas and Reno, NV and Phoenix and Tucson, AZ. If at least 2 of these record rain on either Sunday or Monday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great end of the work week, and weekend, everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 7 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 11, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, it was back to the Golden Snowball cities. I predicted that a majority of the cities would not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday. The table below shows the snow totals on each day for each city, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Upstate New York Snowfall
City Saturday Sunday
Cities with no measurable snowfall on either Saturday or Sunday: 4
Albany None None
Binghamton 0.2 0.2
Buffalo 0.9 Trace
Rochester 1.4 None
Syracuse 1.0 Trace

On Saturday, all but Albany received measurable snowfall. However, only Binghamton had measurable snowfall on Sunday. That’s 4 out of 5 with a trace or less on one day in the forecast period, making this a correct forecast. Of the 2 times I’ve done a “no measurable snowfall” forecast for NYS, Binghamton has been the one that has measurable snowfall. The first time was Forecast 1, which cost me a correct forecast.

For the World Forecast, I expected at least half of the 5 major reporting stations in Florida would have high temperatures at least 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for each city on each day.

Florida High Temperatures
City Saturday Average/Actual Sunday Average/Actual
Cities with high temperatures 10+ below average: 5
Jacksonville 64/37 64/44
Miami 76/63 76/48
Orlando 71/40 71/44
Tallahassee 63/38 63/41
Tampa 70/42 70/43

This one was one of those that was not close but managed to work out my way. The only one that was close to my 10 degree threshold was Miami on Saturday, at 13 below average. All the others were at least 20 below their historical average. When I made the forecast, Miami appeared to be the one that could be within single digits, so I gave myself some cushion. That cushion obviously turned out to not be necessary. Another reason for 10, is that in my eyes, if you are that far away from average (on either warmer or colder) that’s pretty extreme. So the idea was that there would be extreme cold in Florida. Little did I know that it would be far more extreme than that.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 78.57%
NYS 5-2
World 6-1
Overall 11-3

Two correct predictions, and it’s almost 80% for me on the season. This is the highest percentage I’ve had since being at 83.33% after forecast 3. Forecast 4 was the complete disaster, and I will try to avoid that again next time.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 7

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 7, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

The week or so has produced a good amount of snow for most of the Golden Snowball cities. The New York State forecast will focus on snow for the GSB sites.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will not have measurable snow on either Saturday or Sunday.

The GSB areas look to be getting a little bit of a break from the snow over the weekend. Remember that measurable snow is a tenth of an inch or more. As long as 3 or more out of the 5 cities have either a trace or nothing, this forecast will be correct.

This year’s Orange Bowl in Miami was the coldest on record, so the World forecast will look to Florida with a temperature prediction.

At least half of the 5 major Florida reporting stations will have high temperatures 10 degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday.

The much colder than usual temperatures appear to stay with Florida for the weekend. The 5 stations used will be Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and Tallahassee. The forecast will be correct if 3 or more of the cities listed have high temperatures 10 degrees or more below their average for both Saturday and Sunday.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 5, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , .

Happy 2010 everyone! By now, I should be one of the last people to wish you all a Happy New Year.

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that on New Year’s Eve, at least 1 of the three New York City reporting stations would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average and low temperatures above average. The table below shows the recorded temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York City Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High/Low Recorded High/Low
Sites with above average lows and highs within 5 degrees of average: 1
Central Park 39/27 34/33
JFK Airport 40/27 33/33
La Guardia 40/28 34/34

This one was correct, with not much room to spare. All low temperatures were above average, but only Central Park had a high temperature within 5 degrees of average. It is interesting to me that both JFK and La Guardia had no variability between high and low temperatures throughout the day, and a slight change for Central Park.

For the World Forecast, I believed a majority of the other 9 biggest US cities would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on New Year’s Eve. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

US High Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High Recorded High
Cities with highs within 5 degrees of average: 6
Los Angeles, CA 66 68
Chicago, IL 30 32
Houston, TX 62 58
Phoenix, AZ 66 64
Philadelphia, PA 40 34
San Antonio, TX 62 76
Dallas, TX 54 46
San Diego, CA 65 66
San Jose, CA 57 62

This one turned out to be correct as well. San Antonio had the biggest margin of the 9, as the high temperature was 14 degrees above average for New Year’s Eve. A few cities had their highs be very close to average as Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix and San Diego were each within 2 degrees. Houston and San Jose were both within 5, making it 6 out of 9 cities within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 75%
NYS 4-2
World 5-1
Overall 9-3

It was another successful forecast and now I am at 75% for the season. This is the same percentage I was at after the 2nd batch of forecasts, when I was 3-1 overall. I still need 18 straight correct forecasts to reach my goal of 90%, but at least now I have some breathing room over 50%.

With many areas receiving snow in the past few weeks, I’m sure some of you have some great snow pictures. Why don’t you send us some? Also, let’s see if you can Stump the Weather Chump.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 29, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , .

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

New Year’s Eve is Thursday and as usual there will be celebrations galore. Perhaps the most famous of celebrations is in New York City’s Time Square. This week, the Golden Snowball cities will take a back seat to New York City for the New York State forecast.

At least one of the New York City reporting stations will highs within 5 degrees of average and lows above average on Thursday.

There are three National Weather Service reporting stations in the NYC area that will be used for verification: Central Park, La Guardia and JFK airports. If at least one of them has high temperatures with 5 degrees of average (above or below) and warmer than average lows for New Year’s Eve, the forecast will be correct.

For the world forecast, it’s a look at the 9 most populated cities in the US after NYC.

A majority of cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Thursday.

This is similar to this week’s NYS forecast, with the exception that low temperatures are not involved here. The nine most populated US cities other than NYC are, in order from largest to smallest, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Dallas, San Diego and San Jose. For the forecast to be correct, nine of these have their high temperatures within 5 degrees of average (high or low) on New Year’s Eve.

Happy New Year! Have a great week.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 5 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 27, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

After last week’s epic failure, it’s time to see if my Christmas forecast was gold, or if it was nothing but coal.

For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Upstate cities will have a white Christmas. My criteria was there must be either snow on the ground, or in the air. The table below shows the snow depth and snowfall amounts for the seven cities.

Upstate New York Snow
City Depth Fall
Cities with a white Christmas: At least 4
Albany 1 Trace
Binghamton 4 Trace
Buffalo Trace None
Glens Falls ?? None
Rochester 1 None
Syracuse 2 Trace
Watertown ?? None

Not exactly the whitest of Christmases for Upstate, but it was good enough for the forecast to be a success. I was unable to find snow depth data on Glens Falls and Watertown, so I couldn’t count them officially as having snow. So, at least 4, and at most 6, of the cities had snow accumulations on the ground. The one that didn’t was Buffalo, of all places, with just a trace.

The World forecast had the same idea: at least half of the major cities in Minnesota and Wisconsin would have a white Christmas. The criteria for white Christmas was the same as the NYS forecast. The table below shows the snow depth and snowfall statistics from the National Weather Service.

Minnesota and Wisconsin Snow
City Depth Fall
Cities with a white Christmas: 4
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 12 2.0
Green Bay, WI 8 0.1
Madison, WI 5 1.0
Milwaukee, WI 2 None

This forecast also proved to be right. All four cities had some snow depth and at least two of them had measurable snow. Snow fall data for Madison and Milwaukee are missing according to NWS. But by using the next day’s amounts, I was able to make an estimate on Friday’s snowfall. I am not sure how accurate those two are, but that is not a big concern (at least for verifying this forecast since all had some snow depth anyway).

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 70%
NYS 3-2
World 4-1
Overall 7-3

A successful week puts me at 70% after 10 forecasts. The only truly awful forecast so far was last week’s World. While there are 2 misses on the NYS side, at least both of those were close. I suppose the other forecasts that could be considered bad were from a few weeks ago with wind gusts for NYS and temperatures for Ontario, Canada. But those were correct and had the right idea. The PA snowfall forecast was just lousy. So, while my percentage is not where I’d like it, I’m still fairly happy with the first 10 forecasts as a whole. I have a feeling I’m going to need some luck with the next 10 forecasts though, but only time will tell how those end up performing.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 5

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 22, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas. Will that remain a dream, or become reality? It’s the Golden SnowCast Christmas Special!

For the New York State forecast, I’m bringing in all the Upstate New York cities that have NWS stations. This includes all the Golden Snowball cities plus Glens Falls and Watertown.

A majority of the Upstate New York cities will have a white Christmas this year.

For it to be a “white Christmas” there must be either snow on the ground, or snow falling. It is my believe that all the Upstate cities will have a white Christmas, but after last week’s debacle, I’m giving myself some leeway. Part of the issue is that from what I’ve seen, Glens Falls and Watertown don’t report snow depth, which is I will be using to determine if there is snow on the ground this Friday. I can’t really assume there is snow on the ground, so if there isn’t snow falling on Christmas, there would already be 2 cities missed. As long as there are 4 or more Upstate cities that have my definition of a white Christmas, this forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Minnesota and Wisconsin.

At least half of the major cities in Minnesota and Wisconsin will have a white Christmas this year.

Same rules apply here, it must either be snowing or have snow on the ground on Friday to be considered a white Christmas. The major cities are Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee, WI. At least two of the four of these cities must meet my standard for White Christmas for the forecast to be correct. Just like with the NYS forecast, my hunch is that all four will meet the requirements, but I’m playing a little bit to the safe side this week.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 4 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 21, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of their Thursday high temperature. The table below compares Thursday’s highs with Saturday’s and Sunday’s lows as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Thursday’s High Saturday’s Low Sunday’s Low
Cities with weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high: 2
Albany 22 8 12
Binghamton 19 15 17
Buffalo 22 19 22
Rochester 22 14 21
Syracuse 22 8 15

This one was a miss due to Saturday’s lows. Albany and Syracuse still were in the colder air early Saturday. That along with Rochester’s 8 degree difference proved to be this forecast’s doom. As a note, all of Saturday’s lows occurred very early in the day, with Albany’s low, the latest of the cities, being reported just after 6:30 am. Three out of the five cities were in range on Sunday, but at that point, the forecast was already a bust.

For the World forecast, I predicted that the four major cities in Pennsylvania will have snowfall range between a trace and a half an inch on Saturday. The table below shows how much snow each city received in the day, and compares it to the record for the day.

December 19th Pennsylvania Snow
City Previous Record Saturday Snowfall
Cities with snowfall between trace and half an inch: 0
Allentown 8.6 (1995) 5.4
Erie Not Available 1.3
Philadelphia 9.2 (1945) 21.0
Pittsburgh 4.8 (1982) 4.7

This one was a complete disaster. On Thursday morning, the idea was the storm would just graze the PA cities. However, on Thursday night/Friday morning (depending on what time zone you are in and what you consider night and morning), I realized that was not to be the case. At least I knew in advance my forecast would be wrong…now if I could only have noticed that before I made that forecast, I would have been in better shape. :lol: As an interesting note, Philadelphia’s December 19th record held for over 60 years was broken on Saturday, shattering it by almost a foot.

So, it was an 0-2 forecast for the week. Last week, I wondered if maybe it was time for a change with the forecasts. This week, I missed both. I guess that answers my question. :lol:

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 62.5%
NYS 2-2
World 3-1
Overall 5-3

Missing both forecasts puts the percentage in the 60s. Now to reach my goal of 90%, I need to get 22 straight predictions (11 weeks worth) correct. As we’re entering the heart of the snow season, I doubt I’ll be able to reach the 90% goal. At this point, I’m just trying to avoid going back to 50% for the season.

Have a great week everyone!