What’s always late and rarely great? Shot In The Dark Forecasts of course! Time to check out just how bad December’s outlook was and try to do better with January’s.

For December, a Bull’s Eye 3 of the selected Colorado cities would double their snow total. If at least 1 of them got there, it’s On Target. Here are the cities chosen, with the snowfall amount they had at the time of the forecast.

Denver: 22.2
Fort Collins: 25.0
Lakewood: 28.8

Here’s how the stood at the end of December:

Denver: 29.5
Fort Collins: 34.2
Lakewood: 42.4

Lakewood got almost half of the mark, and they were the closest ones. No points for me in December. What is it with me and over estimating the Colorado cities? Did that last year, did it again this year.

With that out of the way, time for the January outlook.

Thought I’d do something a little bit different and go with cities 6-10 in the latest standings. That’s Worcester, MA, Colorado Springs, CO, Erie, PA, Ann Arbor, MI and South Bend, IN. It’s been a slow go for snow this winter, and it just feels like it’ll continue.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is a foot or more below average, snowfall for January.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for January.
Complete Miss: A majority of the cities have average or above snowfall for January.

Have a great January everyone!

Before we get to the forecast, a quick reminder on what the PBR Forecast is. Basically, it involves a short term forecast for some part of the U.S. In some cases, it is one state, while in others it could involve several. It just depends on how widespread a storm could be. Typically, what I feel will happen will go under the On Target category. Bull’s Eye typically has something extra. Before the next PBR Forecast, I will take a look at how the previous forecast fared.

Kicking off this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts, we have a potentially large storm in store for the southwestern U.S. up to the plains. So, this forecast may be one of the more widespread ones that I have done as it involves Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. With 6 states total, I’ve decided to take one city from each (Flagstaff, Albuquerque, Pueblo, Amarillo, Guymon and Wichita). I’m expecting at least 6 inches of snow for most.

Bull’s Eye: All cities listed have at least 6 inches of snow, with one getting at least a foot.
On Target: 3 or more of the cities listed have at least 6 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer cities have 6 or more inches of snow.

Have a great week everyone, and if you’re in the storm’s path, be careful out there!

It’s that time again! Well, actually, that time was a few days ago, but after a bit of a delay, I’m finally ready for the snow season. With that comes the forecasts. First a bit of a reminder of what exactly is going on for those new to this, along with a few changes.

At times throughout the season, I will prepare different types of forecasts. There will be 10 short term forecasts (about 2-3 days) called Point Blank Range and 5 long term (about a month) called Shot In The Dark. The idea behind each forecast is to be a bit different than you’d see in most forecasts on TV. What does that mean? No waffle words like “chance of” or “likely” when I make a forecast, it will be definitive. Also, at the beginning of each following forecast, I will look back and see how the forecast fared. Each forecast will fall into one of three categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss.

Now on to the changes for this season. First off, I will not be doing a season outlook. Instead, I will be doing a long term forecast for 5 months, December through April. Secondly, the two sites, Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe, will be kept separate. In previous years, I’d try to find something that would work for both New York State and elsewhere at the same time. More often than not, I’d only be able to have a snow forecast for one area. So this gives me more flexibility. If I need to make a GSB forecast on a Tuesday and a GSG forecast on a Friday, or if it’s weeks in between, then that would work this year. And finally, I’m doubling the points for the Shot In The Dark forecasts. So now it’s 4 points for a Bull’s Eye, 2 for On Target and 0 for a Complete Miss. The goal for the end of the season will remain the same: 1.00 average or better (it worked out that even with this change my forecasts last season didn’t mean the 1.00 mark, so that is the goal again this season).

Now that’s out of the way, it’s time for the first Shot In The Dark Forecast of the season!

Remember how the Colorado cities where nowhere to be found in the top 10 last season? So far this season, they are make up for that as three (Fort Collins, Lakewood and Denver) are currently in the top 5! This is more like what we were expecting from them! They’re off to a great start, but this is just the beginning. Can their snowfall totals double by the end of the month?

Bull’s Eye: Fort Collins, Lakewood and Denver will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.
On Target: One or two will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: None will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.

Doubling snowfall totals would put Fort Collins at 57.6, Lakewood at 50.0 and Denver at 44.4.

Have a great week everyone!

Yes, I know, it’s the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That’s why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!

First up is the April forecast, which involved the ranking of the Top 5. Below is their ranking, with my predicted placement in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)

Bull’s Eye: All of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
On Target: Three of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.

Syracuse and Rochester were the only ones that ended up in the positions that the were when the forecast was made. As a result, this was a Complete Miss.

Finally, it’s the Winter outlook, which was made at the beginning of January. It involved the Colorado cities and the Top 10. Here is a look at the final Top 10, set on May 15th.

1. Syracuse, NY
2. Rochester, NY
3. Buffalo, NY
4. Erie, PA
5. South Bend, IN
6. St. Paul, MN
7. Worcester, MA
8. Green Bay, WI
9. Minneapolis, MN
10. Hartford, CT

Bull’s Eye: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 5 in mid May.
On Target: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May.
Complete Miss: All major Colorado cities are out of the top 10 in mid May.

None of the Colorado cities are in the Top 10, so this is a Complete Miss. The highest placed Colorado city ended up being Lakewood, finishing 48th, a long ways away from the Top 10.

Here are the final results, including both GSB and GSG.

Unfortunately, these two Complete Miss forecasts meant I could not reach my 1.00 goal. The end of season mark is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull’s Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull’s Eyes and two were Complete Misses.

So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.

Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I’d like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I’ll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it’ll be here next season, if not, then it won’t. I don’t want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.

Enjoy the off season everyone!

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average for three Colorado cities. Below are the snowfall totals for them with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Colorado Springs: 3.1 (9.4)
Denver: 2.5 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)

Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.

That did not work well at all. Here are the updated standings, including both GSB and GSG.

With both GSB and GSG forecasts falling into the Complete Miss range, my average has dropped below the 1.00 goal set before the season. Of the four remaining forecasts in progress, it looks like I’ll need at least 2 Bull’s Eye forecasts to get to the 1.00 mark.

With that in mind, here’s an update on the April outlook. I had set the Bull’s Eye as all of the top 5 holding their positions, while 3 out of the 5 would be On Target. Below are the top 5, as of the April 5th update by Pat, with where they were when the forecast was made in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)

At the moment, this would be a Complete Miss. Syracuse and Rochester are pretty much locked in at 1 and 2, so it would take some shuffling around with the other 3 to get me to at least On Target.

Hey, have a great week everyone!

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures with the 5 biggest U.S. cities. Below are the coldest lows for Los Angeles and Houston, and the warmest highs for Chicago, New York City and Philadelphia.

Los Angeles: 50
Houston: 55
Chicago: 45
New York City: 53
Philadelphia: 52

Bull’s Eye: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia’s warmest highs.
On Target: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than 2 of the three warmest highs.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

This is an On Target forecast. But was it enough to reach the 1.00 goal?

No! It was the Golden Snowball forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. The forecasts here were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!

It’s the final PBR Forecast of the season. And, the way things have gone, the end couldn’t have come soon enough. The forecasts here have been fine for the most part, but the ones over on Golden Snowball were rough. More information on the final PBR Forecast to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last outlook.

The previous forecast involved snowfall for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre from the 23rd to the 24th. The ended up with 9.5 inches total.

Bull’s Eye: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 10 inches of snow.
On Target: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 5 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has less than 5 inches of snow.

A half of an inch from a Bull’s Eye, but an On Target forecast works.

However, the GSB forecast let me down once again, and I’m still below the 1.00 goal. I need 2 Bull’s Eyes to get to 1.00. The only way to do that is for a Bull’s Eye in each the GSB and GSG forecast.

Now on to this forecast, which involves the 5 biggest U.S. cities: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia. With 2 warm weather cities and 3 colder ones, it is tough to figure something they all would have in common. So, instead, I will be comaring LA and Houston’s low temperatures with high temperatures from NYC, Chicago and Philadelphia.

Bull’s Eye: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia’s warmest highs.
On Target: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than 2 of the three warmest highs.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Be sure to check out the forecast over on Golden Snowball as well. Have a great week everyone!

It may be the first full week of Spring, according to the calendar, but there is one more push of winter weather at the start of the “new” season. This forecast will ride on just one city. More details on that to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

The previous outlook involved Indiana weather, or lack there of it. Below are the precipitation totals for the chosen Indiana cities from the 11th through the 13th.

Evansville: Trace
Fort Wayne: None
Indianapolis: None
Lafayette: None
South Bend: None

Bull’s Eye: All five of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
On Target: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
Complete Miss: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have measurable precipitation this weekend.

Four out of five had no precipitation, while Evansville recorded a trace. That’s all five without measurable precipitation, and a Bull’s Eye.

However, the GSB forecast let me down once again, and I’m still below the 1.00 goal. Just two forecasts remain, so I need to get it together quickly.

Now on to this forecast, which involves snowfall. Snow will be moving into the northeast U.S. and it looks like the area around the NY/PA border will be hit pretty good. As a result, I’m putting it all on just one area, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA.

Bull’s Eye: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 10 inches of snow.
On Target: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 5 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has less than 5 inches of snow.

Be sure to check out the forecast over at Golden Snowball as well!

While it’s still March, I wanted to get the April forecast in now. Before I do that though, I’ll give a quick update on the March forecast.

If you recall, the forecast for the month involved snowfall in Colorado. Below are the snowfall totals for the month so far, with monthly average in parenthesis.

Colorado Springs: 0.6 (9.4)
Denver: 4.1 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)

Needless to say, this one appears to not be working out the way I expected. I’ll need a late snowfall push in 2 of the cities to get to the On Target result, and all three to get in the Bull’s Eye category.

Now on to the April forecast. I believe that the snow machine is coming to an end for the season. As a result, this forecast involves the Top 5 in the latest update. I believe they will remain mostly as they are in mid April. Below are the top 5 cities as of the update earlier.

1. Syracuse, NY
2. Rochester, NY
3. South Bend, IN
4. Erie, PA
5. Buffalo, NY

Bull’s Eye: All of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
On Target: Three of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.

Happy Spring everyone! Be sure to check out the SITD forecast over at Golden Snowball as well.

This forecast will be a bit unusual, as it involves no measurable precipitation over the weekend. There is a reason for this though, which will be explained in detail tomorrow, both here and on Golden Snowball. But first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

Snow was in the forecast for Cleveland, OH, Toledo, OH and Erie, PA. Here are their totals from February 25th through the 27th.

Cleveland: 8.9
Toledo: 7.3
Erie: 8.6

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 6 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend, .
On Target: All three get at least 6 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: One of the three gets less than 6 inches of snow this weekend.

All three were above 6 inches, but none made it to a foot. So, this is an On Target forecast.

However, that’s not enough to get me to 1.00 as the GSB forecast was also On Target. I increase the average by 0.01 to 0.93. Just 3 forecasts remain, enough to either finish out strong or end with a whimper.

Now on to this forecast, which involves no precipitation. This is for the state of Indiana, which I had planned on doing a forecast for at this time for two reasons. One of which is that most areas will be having their St. Patrick’s Day parade this weekend, and South Bend, Indiana is home to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. But there is another reason for it, and that will be explained tomorrow morning. It just turns out that there isn’t too much expected for Indiana this weekend. The five Indiana cities involved in this forecast are Evansville, Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, Lafayette and South Bend.

Bull’s Eye: All five of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
On Target: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
Complete Miss: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have measurable precipitation this weekend.

Be sure to check out the forecast on Golden Snowball as well!