Yes, I know, it’s the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That’s why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!
First up is the April forecast, which involved the ranking of the Top 5. Below is their ranking, with my predicted placement in parenthesis.
1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)
Bull’s Eye: All of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
On Target: Three of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
Syracuse and Rochester were the only ones that ended up in the positions that the were when the forecast was made. As a result, this was a Complete Miss.
Finally, it’s the Winter outlook, which was made at the beginning of January. It involved the Colorado cities and the Top 10. Here is a look at the final Top 10, set on May 15th.
1. Syracuse, NY
2. Rochester, NY
3. Buffalo, NY
4. Erie, PA
5. South Bend, IN
6. St. Paul, MN
7. Worcester, MA
8. Green Bay, WI
9. Minneapolis, MN
10. Hartford, CT
Bull’s Eye: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 5 in mid May.
On Target: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May.
Complete Miss: All major Colorado cities are out of the top 10 in mid May.
None of the Colorado cities are in the Top 10, so this is a Complete Miss. The highest placed Colorado city ended up being Lakewood, finishing 48th, a long ways away from the Top 10.
Here are the final results, including both GSB and GSG.
| Shot In The Dark Forecasts Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Bull’s Eye | On Target | Complete Miss | Points |
| Average: 0.90 | ||||
| GSB | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| GSG | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
Unfortunately, these two Complete Miss forecasts meant I could not reach my 1.00 goal. The end of season mark is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull’s Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull’s Eyes and two were Complete Misses.
So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.
Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I’d like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I’ll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it’ll be here next season, if not, then it won’t. I don’t want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.
Enjoy the off season everyone!
