Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.
The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average for three Colorado cities. Below are the snowfall totals for them with their respective averages in parenthesis.
Colorado Springs: 3.1 (9.4)
Denver: 2.5 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)
Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
That did not work well at all. Here are the updated standings, including both GSB and GSG.
| Shot In The Dark Forecasts Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Bull’s Eye | On Target | Complete Miss | Points |
| Average: 0.83 | ||||
| GSB | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| GSG | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
With both GSB and GSG forecasts falling into the Complete Miss range, my average has dropped below the 1.00 goal set before the season. Of the four remaining forecasts in progress, it looks like I’ll need at least 2 Bull’s Eye forecasts to get to the 1.00 mark.
With that in mind, here’s an update on the April outlook. I had set the Bull’s Eye as all of the top 5 holding their positions, while 3 out of the 5 would be On Target. Below are the top 5, as of the April 5th update by Pat, with where they were when the forecast was made in parenthesis.
1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)
At the moment, this would be a Complete Miss. Syracuse and Rochester are pretty much locked in at 1 and 2, so it would take some shuffling around with the other 3 to get me to at least On Target.
Hey, have a great week everyone!
