One month down, two more to go for the Shot In The Dark Forecasts. This month’s will focus on some of the major midwest cities. But before we get into that, it’s a look back at January.
The January forecast involved Boston, New York City and Philadelphia snowfall. In particular, reaching a foot of snow on a day in the month. Below are the number of days each city reached a foot of snow.
Boston: 1 (January 12: 14.6 inches)
New York City (Central Park): 1 (January 26: 12.3 inches)
Philadelphia: 1 (January 26: 14.2 inches)
Bull’s Eye: Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
On Target: 2 of the 3 have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
Complete Miss: 1 or none have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
All three reached at least a foot of snow once, so that is a Bull’s Eye Forecast, a great way to start.
Here are the results, combined with the Golden Snowball site.
| Shot In The Dark Forecasts Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Bull’s Eye | On Target | Complete Miss | Points |
| Average: 1.00 | ||||
| GSB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| GSG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
The GSB forecast was a Complete Miss, so as a result, the average sits at 1.00, exactly the goal set before the forecasts began.
Now onto the February forecast, which, as mentioned before, focuses on the Midwest. It was a rough start to February for Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Madison and Milwaukee. I believe the worst of the snow is behind them, at least for the month.
Bull’s Eye: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for all five cities.
On Target: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for three or four of the cities.
Complete Miss: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for two or fewer of the cities.
For a point of reference, the snowfall totals for the first two days in each city are as follows:
Chicago: 20.2
Detroit: 10.6
Kansas City: 8.9
Madison: 14.3
Milwaukee: 17.6
Be sure to check out the Golden Snowball site to see that edition as well. I will resume the Point Blank Range Forecasts tomorrow.
