2009-10 Golden SnowDown: An Introduction

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 14, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

With the comments on the All Snowiest Cities page about Flagstaff, AZ (among others), I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at how the smaller cities stack up to the cities with a population of 100,000 or more. Before I begin revealing the results, here is some background on the criteria I have set.

First, all snowfall stats are from the National Weather Service. If a city does not have NWS stats, I did not include them on the list. Second, to make the list, a city must have measurable snowfall shown. That is anything 0.1 or more for the season. If a city has missing data, trace amounts, or no snowfall, they were not included in the list. Third, population does not matter. If a site meets the first two criteria, it’s going to be listed, whether it has a population of 100 or 100,000 or 100,000,000. Population data is taken for the city listed on the NWS site. If it is a multiple city area (such as Scranton/Wilkes Barre), the first name listed counts. This is just for quick statistics purposes and has no barring on the results. Finally, a city that has multiple reporting stations will have all sites included. For example, I consider New York City to have 3 sites: Central Park, JFK and La Guardia airports. All three will count separately as New York (Central Park), New York (JFK) and New York (La Guardia) with population data for New York City.

All snowfall statistics were taken the first week of April. With over 250 cities making the list, and having my course work start up again soon, I would rather not go through all cities another round, especially since most of the cities have not seen substantial snowfall since the start of the month.

In the next few days, I will begin revealing the results of the 2009-10 Golden SnowDown. I couldn’t come up with a better name, it’s a snowfall showdown, so put it together and that’s what you get. If you have a better name for it, then you’re just more creative than I am. :)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 19 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 13, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I stated that at least 2 of the Golden Snowball cities would have some frozen precipitation on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows which cities had frozen precipitation, according to the National Weather Service.

New York State Frozen Precipitation
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with frozen precipitation: 5
Albany No Yes
Binghamton Yes Yes
Buffalo Yes Yes
Rochester Yes No
Syracuse Yes Yes

Turns out that all five did, none of which had measurable frozen precipitation. The number is not what mattered, just if it was there, so the forecast is correct. Three of them, Binghamton, Buffalo and Syracuse, had frozen precipitation on both days.

For the World forecast, I believed that a majority of the Nevada reporting stations would have lows within 5 degrees of average on either Friday or Saturday. The table below show the National Weather Service’s reported low temperatures.

Nevada Low Temperatures
City Friday Average/Reported Saturday Average/Reported
Nevada Cities with low temperatures within 5 degrees of average: 7
Elko 29/24 29/29
Ely 25/26 25/25
Eureka 24/25 24/24
Las Vegas 52/51 52/61
Reno 32/36 32/41
Tonopah 33/35 33/35
Winnemucca 29/27 29/34

All seven had at least one day with low temperatures within five degrees of average, so the forecast is correct. Las Vegas and Reno were the only two not to have that occur on both days. Elko, Ely and Eureka were spot on with average on Saturday.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 34-4 89.47%
NYS 17-2 89.47%
World 17-2 89.47%

Another 2 for 2 week, and 90% is still possible going into the final batch of the season. Both NYS and World forecasts must be correct for the target to be met. A new scoring system will likely be in place next year. I believe I mentioned that earlier.

Have a great week everyone!

All Snowiest Big Cities Updated 4/12/10

Posted by Patrick on April 12, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , , .

Yeah I know it’s about time huh? It’s been tough trying to get an update in with the decent weather we have been having. I just cut the lawn yesterday and I don’t think too many of us are thinking about snow right now. It’s getting close to that time to wrapping up the contest for snowiest city in the United States with a population of 100,000 or more. We still have some stats to check before the contest ends which is the last day of April and I don’t think it’s a lock yet seeing how some cities are still getting snow.

Here in the northeast it’s been pretty decent with just a trace of snow last Friday. Most of the days have been 50 + with a few days in the 80′s which is very unusual for April. With the wacky way this winter has been I’m a little nervous as to what the summer will bring across the United States. Only a handful had any snow to report this update so unless one of the cities near the top start piling it on I’ll most likely do another update early next week. If I see some of the top 10 cities are getting some snow I’ll do an update sooner.

Have a Super Week All!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 19

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 7, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

While it has felt more like Summer than Spring in many places in the United States, Winter may have one last gasp. The New York State forecast involves frozen precipitation to the start of the weekend.

At least 2 of the Golden Snowball cities will have frozen precipitation on Friday or Saturday.

No accumulation with this, just an event. As long as there is some accumulation (even a trace) of frozen precipitation noted on the climate summaries of at least 2 of the five GSB cities, this forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at low temperatures in Nevada.

A majority of the Nevada reporting stations will have low temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Friday or Saturday.

The reporting stations in Nevada are Elko, Ely, Eureka, Las Vegas, Reno, Tonopah and Winnemucca. The forecast will be deemed correct if four or more of them have low temperatures within 5 degrees of average on either Friday or Saturday.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 18 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 4, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

In the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of Golden Snowball cities would break record high temperatures on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows high temperatures on both days, with asterisks indicating new records, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Saturday Highs
GSB Cities with new record highs: 5
Albany 77* 77
Binghamton 79* 79
Buffalo 79* 84*
Rochester 86* 87*
Syracuse 87* 87*

All five broke records on Friday and three records were broken on Saturday, so this forecast is correct. Binghamton’s 79 on Friday tied a record set in 1963. The oldest record that was broken was Buffalo’s April 2nd high of 72 in 1945.

For the World forecast, I believed that a majority of five chosen European cities would report rain on either Friday or Saturday. The table below shows if rain was noted in weather.com’s hourly reports.

Europe Rain
City Friday Saturday
European cities with rain on either day: 4
Berlin No Yes
London Yes Yes
Madrid No Yes
Paris Yes Yes
Rome No No

Two had rain on Friday, but four had rain on Saturday, so this forecast is correct. Rome was the only city not have rain on either day. London and Paris had some rain on both days.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 32-4 88.89%
NYS 16-2 88.89%
World 16-2 88.89%

It’s another perfect batch and the percentage is the highest it’s been this season. Two NYS and two World forecasts remain, all of which must be correct in order to reach the goal.

Happy Easter everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 18

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 31, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

Taking a look back at the forecasts in March, there was a severe lack of snow predictions. That trend looks to continue for at least the start of April. In fact, the New York State forecast involves a look at record heat.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will break record highs on either Friday or Saturday.

The GSB cities should have highs around 80 degrees on both days. If that holds true, records will likely fall. In order for my prediction to be correct, at least 3 cities must break record high temperatures on either Friday or Saturday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Europe. That’s right, it’s the second time the World forecast has gone outside of the United States.

A majority of the five chosen European cities will have rain on either Friday or Saturday.

The five chosen cities are Berlin, London, Madrid, Paris and Rome. I am not sure where I’d get data on the numbers, so all I am looking for is whether it rains or not. I’ll be using the hourly reports from weather.com to verify the forecast. If three or more have rain in any of the hourly reports on Friday or Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Enjoy the rest of the week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 30, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have warmer lows on Sunday and Monday than Friday’s highs. The table below compares the temperatures from each day, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Sunday Lows Monday Lows
GSB Cities with warmer low temperatures: 5
Albany 40 31 41
Binghamton 32 28 37
Buffalo 31 37 38
Rochester 33 38 37
Syracuse 33 34 40

All five had warmer low temperatures on Monday than Friday’s highs, and three of the five had warmer lows on Sunday, so this forecast is correct. As an interesting note, three of the five had Monday’s lows warmer than Friday’s highs by 5 degrees or more.

My World prediction stated that all of the selected cities in Texas would have mostly sunny skies on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the cloud cover for the five cities, according to the National Weather Service.

Texas Sky Cover
City Sunday Monday
Texas cities with under .5 sky cover: 5
Austin 0.1 0.0
Corpus Cristi 0.3 0.0
Dallas 0.2 0.0
El Paso 0.0 0.1
San Antonio 0.1 0.0

All five cities were lower than 0.5 on both days, so the forecast is correct. As a note, Houston did not have sky cover data available, so I used the next biggest city that had NWS reports, which was Corpus Cristi.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 30-4 88.23%
NYS 15-2 88.23%
World 15-2 88.23%

Another perfect week, and the goal is still possible. Just three batches of forecasts remain, and all six predictions must come true for the 90% threshold to be met.

Have a great week everyone!

The Top 10 Snowiest Cities Pop 100,000 Updated

Posted by Patrick on March 29, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

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The title pretty much says it all. I just did a top 10 update and only one change in the lineup. I don’t see Syracuse adding any new snow in the near future so the title is up for the taking if you can pile on some new snow.

As for my new found friends in Flagstaff, AZ, I think we have enough posts in the comments section including one from my darling Daughter who figured she would just keep it going and going even though she lives in Oswego, NY :) Most will be just overlooked for the fact that the contest is 100,000 population or more. If I have the time I will try and give some of th smaller cities that got decent snow this season recognition come the end of the season ;) I’ll try and get a full update in sometime this week.

Have a Super Week All!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 26, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

As we’re nearing the end of March, most areas seem to be in the clear for snow…at least for now.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a look at temperatures, comparing today’s highs with lows to start next week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have warmer low temperatures on either Sunday or Monday than Friday’s high temperatures.

Most of the GSB cities had high temperatures hovering around freezing. Albany is the only one that reached 40, doing so at about 1:30 this morning. The forecast will be correct if at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities have Friday’s high is colder than either Sunday or Monday’s low temperatures.

For the World forecast, it’s a cloud cover forecast for Texas.

All of the five selected cities in Texas will have more sun than clouds on either Sunday or Monday.

I believe this is the first time I’ve done a cloud cover prediction in the Golden SnowCast. The five cities used for verification are Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio. If the reported cloud cover is under 0.5 for all five cities on either day, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Colorado Cities Plowing Their Way to Top

Posted by Patrick on March 25, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , , .

Lakewood and Fort Collins are on the move with the latest storm to hit Colorado. They both climbed several spots on the snow mountain. The weather in Syracuse has been pretty decent so they better start getting a little nervous about winning the first national snow contest for a city with a population of 100,000 or more.

It’s still just a matter of a storm or two for just about any of the top 10 Golden Snow Globe cities to move to the top. The North East has had some unusually warm weather with perhaps some snow in the forecast for early next week but as of now it doesn’t look like much. I’m still trying to find some snow stats for a few of the Colorado cities and will be contacting NOAA to see if they have them. Come the end of this seasons contest I will also talk with the National Weather Service to make sure we have the right city as the winner. Like I’ve mentioned in the past, this season is kind of a test run to get all the bugs out and I have several plans to make the contest more fun and interesting for the future seasons. Suggestions are always welcome.

Have a Great Week All and GO CUSE!!!! NCAA that is ;)