Shot In The Dark Forecasts: January 2011

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 3, 2011
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

It has been a quiet time in the Northeast to start 2011, but I have a feeling that will change. That is all a Shot In The Dark forecast is based on, so it seems appropriate to use the Northeast in the January 2011 edition.

The end of December featured the blizzard that put several areas in a standstill. I am expecting a similar type of event in January for Boston, New York City and Philadelphia.

Bull’s Eye: Boston, New York City and Philadelphia each have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
On Target: 2 of the 3 have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.
Complete Miss: 1 or none have one day with at least a foot of snowfall in January.

To clarify, each city needs one day, but they do not all have to be the same day. For example, if Boston has a foot of snow on the 15th, and NYC and Philly have a foot of snow on the 26th, that would be a Bull’s Eye forecast.

Be sure to check the Golden Snowball site to see the GSB forecast.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 2, 2011
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

So much for getting the forecasts up by New Year’s. Basically, Shot In the Dark forecasts are a gut reaction, with little to no research involved in the outlook. The seasonal forecast is perhaps the biggest gut reaction of them all, as they involve results about three months away from now.

This time, the Golden Snow Globe SITD focuses on the standings at the end of the season. While the Colorado cities have not had a great showing in the latest rankings, as the highest is Fort Collins at 48th, I do believe at least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May, when the contest comes to a close.

Bull’s Eye: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 5 in mid May.
On Target: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May.
Complete Miss: All major Colorado cities are out of the top 10 in mid May.

Check out the Golden Snowball site to see the GSB Winter 2011 Forecast.

Introducing this year’s forecasting features

Posted by Patrick on December 29, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

Visitors may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I’ve worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I’ll begin forecasting once again.

The first change is that I’ll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year’s Golden SnowCast: I’ll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.

Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I’m introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull’s Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season’s end.

Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone’s forecast will be posted on the respective sites.

Finally, I’ll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I’ll try to use it there. If not, it’ll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.

I’m sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year’s Eve, and the January look on New Year’s Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Introducing this year's forecasting features

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 29, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

Visitors may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I’ve worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I’ll begin forecasting once again.

The first change is that I’ll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year’s Golden SnowCast: I’ll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.

Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I’m introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull’s Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season’s end.

Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone’s forecast will be posted on the respective sites.

Finally, I’ll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I’ll try to use it there. If not, it’ll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.

I’m sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year’s Eve, and the January look on New Year’s Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Snowiest Cities at the Bottom Making a Move

Posted by Patrick on December 28, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , , , .

We just updated the top 10 snowiest cities and also did a full update. With this last storm it looks like we’ll have to be adding some more cities into the contest. Most likely some more from Virginia and North Carolina. Give us a few days to get the stats and so on for that.

Cities that stood out this last update include 7 that were near the bottom most of this season. A few of the cities that picked up enough snow to make a pretty good move were Newark, New Jersey, Boston and Worcester Mass, Norfolk, Virginia, Hartford and Bridgeport, Connecticut and of course New York City. Check all the snowiest cities that we have listed so far and check out the numbers to the left of the city which shows how far some of them moved up this last update. More to come and…..

Have a great night all!

Some Blizzard and Snow Storm Totals 12/23 – 12/27 2010

Posted by Patrick on December 27, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Massachusetts Snow Info, New York Snow Info, Washington Snow Info. Tagged: , .

Like the title on the previous post states, this was about the time the storms started last season and go figure a storm hits the East Coast right on schedule. Blizzard warnings are still in effect for some cities and here are some totals for the storm so far from NOAA. I saw a wind gust of 80 mph listed for a city in Mass. You can find more at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html and the snow is still falling so most likely I’ll do a full update either later tonight or tomorrow.

…SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 600 AM EST THU DEC
23 THROUGH 900 AM EST MON DEC 27…

…CONNECTICUT…
DANBURY 11.1
BURLINGTON 11.0
LITTLE MILFORD 10.0
STAMFORD 10.0
TORRINGFORD 9.5
WETHERSFIELD 8.0
STAFFORDVILLE 7.5
MANCHESTER 7.0
WEST HARTFORD 6.5
EAST KILLINGLY 5.5

…DELAWARE…
WOODBURY 11.7
SELBYVILLE 11.3
STOCKLEY 9.7
ELLENDALE 8.2
VIOLA 6.2
DOVER 4.0
WILMINGTON 3.4

…MASSACHUSETTS…
NORTH OTIS 17.0
SAUGUS 17.0
EAST BOSTON 16.5
WHITMAN 12.3
RANDOLPH 11.8
TAUNTON 11.0
SOUTH ATTLEBORO 10.0
FRAMINGHAM 9.6
WORCESTER 9.5
CHESTERFIELD 7.5
VINEYARD HAVEN 4.0
WEST SPRINGFIELD 3.5

…MARYLAND…
OCEAN CITY 13.5
FRUITLAND 11.8
POCOMOKE CITY 11.0
PORTNEYS OVERLOOK 5.7
RIDGE 1 NW 4.9
SAINT JAMES 1 E 4.5
DENTON 4.0
MECHANICSVILLE 4.0
TANGLEWOOD 2.5
HOLLYWOOD 2.0

…MAINE…
AUGUSTA 1 SE 10.0
HARRINGTON 9.0
AURORA 8.0
KENNEBUNK 2 NE 8.0
MACHIAS 7.5
DOVER-FOXCROFT 7.0
CAMDEN 1 SSW 6.2
BAR HARBOR 6.0
BANGOR 3.0

…NEW HAMPSHIRE…
RANDOLPH 15.5
UNITY 15.0
NEW LONDON 13.0
WEBSTER 3 SSW 12.0
WALPOLE 11.0
BRISTOL 1 NNW 10.5
KEENE 10.0
NEWBURY 4 SE 9.5
EATON 3 SSW 8.0
GOFFSTOWN 7.0

…NEW JERSEY…
LINCOLN PARK 29.0
LYNDHURST 29.0
ELIZABETH 26.5
FANWOOD 26.0
HARRISON 25.0
HASKELL 24.5
CHESEQUAKE 23.2
EDISON 20.1
MILLBURN 20.0
NEWARK AIRPORT 20.0
ATLANTIC CITY 19.0
CAPE MAY 18.0
NORTHFIELD 17.5
SOUTH RIVER 16.5
TABERNACLE 12.5

…NEW YORK…
TUXEDO 26.0
PINE PLAINS 25.0
BEDFORD PARK 22.0
KINDERHOOK 21.0
MONROE 20.6
NORTH CHATHAM 20.3
GHENT 20.0
BROOKLYN 17.5
MAPLECREST 17.0
MOUNT VERNON 17.0
LONG BEACH 16.0
NEW HYDE PARK 14.2
CENTRAL PARK 13.0
ISLIP 11.8
ALBANY 9.0

…PENNSYLVANIA…
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 12.4
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 11.7
WYNNEWOOD 11.0
BENSALEM 8.1
EAST NANTMEAL 7.0
QUAKERTOWN 7.0
BLAKESLEE 6.3
FOLCROFT 4.5
POCONO SUMMIT 4.3
ALLENTOWN 2.8

…RHODE ISLAND…
NORTH KINGSTOWN 12.0
WEST WARWICK 12.0
WOONSOCKET 12.0
EAST PROVIDENCE 10.0
WEST GREENWICH 9.5
WARREN 9.0
WESTERLY 8.0
CRANSTON 7.0
NEWPORT 7.0
BRISTOL 6.2

…VERMONT…
WOODFORD 20.0
LANDGROVE 18.0
SPRINGFIELD 15.0
N HARTLAND RES 11.0
LUDLOW 10.0
WOODSTOCK 10.0
CORINTH 7.2
BROOKFIELD 2 WSW 6.5

SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED…

…ALABAMA…
HUNTSVILLE 3 NE 6.0
SKYLINE 5.5
HACKLEBURG 2 E 4.0
MERIDIANVILLE 4.0
MUSCADINE 4.0
MADISON 2 N 3.5
MOULTON 6 W 3.5
ANNISTON 5 SW 3.0
ATTALLA 3.0
HEFLIN 7 S 2.5
ONEONTA 10 SW 2.2
HARTSELLE 2.0
NEW MARKET 6 SW 2.0
FLORENCE 5 N 1.0

…GEORGIA…
ROSMAN 5 W 7.4
FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK 7.0
SUCHES 7.0
BREVARD 1 NNE 6.5
BLAIRSVILLE 6.0
BLUE RIDGE 6.0
CAMP MERRILL 6.0
HIAWASSEE 6.0
RINGGOLD 6.0
SKY VALLEY 6.0
TRENTON 6.0
HICKORY 2 NW 5.5
DAWSONVILLE 5.0
LAFAYETTE 5.0

…IOWA…
NORTH WASHINGTON 10.5
NEW HAMPTON 1 S 10.0
SPRINGVILLE 9.7
OELWEIN 9.5
LOWDEN 9.2
BERTRAM 9.0
ANAMOSA 4 ENE 8.8
MARION 2 NW 8.8
DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 8.4
CEDAR RAPIDS 5 NW 8.3

…ILLINOIS…
BEACH PARK 1W 9.9
CHATSWORTH 8.0
GURNEE 2NE 8.0
NORTHBROOK 7.4
MOLINE QUAD-CITY AIRPORT 7.2
ABINGDON 1 N 7.0
PEORIA 7.0
ALTONA 6.6
BLOOMINGTON 3 NE 6.5
CORDOVA 6.5
EVANSTON 6.1
MORTON GROVE 4.8
SPRINGFIELD 4.6
BROOKPORT 3 N 3.0
OHARE AIRPORT 2.0

…INDIANA…
NEW HARMONY 6.0
POSEYVILLE 6.0
RAINSVILLE 4.2
LAFAYETTE 11 S 4.0
WEST LAFAYETTE 2 NW 3.6
ATTICA 3.5
EVANSVILLE 3.0
VINCENNES 4 E 2.6
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT 1.6

…KENTUCKY…
SMILAX 6.0
ELVA 5.5
FONDE 5.5
HOLMES MILL 1 SW 5.5
HARDY 5.0
TATUMSVILLE 5.0
VIRGIE 5.0
GREENVILLE 8 ESE 4.8
ASHCAMP 4.5
BENTON 3 WNW 4.5
CENTRAL CITY 4.5
GREENVILLE 8 SE 4.5
BASKETT 4.1
MOUSIE 4.0

…MINNESOTA…
RED WING 7.0
AUSTIN 2 W 6.8
MADELIA 6.2
OAK CENTER 6.2
ROCKFORD 6.1
MORGAN 6.0
WELCOME 6.0
WHEATON 6.0
WINNEBAGO 6.0
MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 4.6

…MISSOURI…
FRENCH VILLAGE 2 E 4.0
GLENDALE 3.9
MONROE CITY 3.8
ST LOUIS 3.4
ELLISVILLE 3.1

…MISSISSIPPI…
NEW ALBANY 2.0
OXFORD 2.0
YUMA 4 ESE 2.0
BOONEVILLE 1.5
FULTON 3 W 1.3
AMORY 1.0
GRENADA 1.0
HOUSTON 1.0
MANTACHIE 1.0
PITTSBORO 1.0
WATER VALLEY 1.0
WATER VALLEY 4 W 0.8

…NORTH CAROLINA…
NASHVILLE 13.0
TARBORO 12.5
ROANOKE RAPIDS 12.0
GATES 11.0
PIKEVILLE 11.0
ASHEVILLE 9.0
SMITHFIELD 9.0
RALEIGH 8.5
ELIZABETH CITY 8.0
HERTFORD 7 S 7.0

…SOUTH CAROLINA…
FRANKLIN 10 N 10.0
GRANITE FALLS 4 ESE 7.0
POLKVILLE 5 S 5.5
PUMPKIN CENTER 5.3
SIMPSONVILLE 6 ENE 5.0
CLARKESVILLE 5 W 4.7
MONROE 4.7
HARRISBURG 1 S 4.3
BROOKWOOD TRAILER 1 NNE 4.2
LANDRUM 4.2
HARTSVILLE 4.0
LANCASTER 4.0
MULLINS 1 N 4.0

…SOUTH DAKOTA…
VICTOR 4 NNE 8.0
MCINTOSH 6 SE 5.0 ESTIMATED

…TENNESSEE…
COSBY 9.0
ERWIN 8.0
GATLINBURG 3 SE 8.0
COWAN 6.5
BENTON 6.0
GATLINBURG 6.0
MURPHY 6.0
CLEVELAND 5.0
ETOWAH 5.0
HAMPTON 5.0
CHATTANOOGA 3.0

…VIRGINIA…
ONLEY 14.0
NORFOLK 13.4
FRANKLIN 13.2
SMITHFIELD 13.2
CHESAPEAKE 13.0
HAMPTON 13.0
WAKEFIELD 11.8
NEWPORT NEWS 11.5
WALLOPS ISLAND 11.5
WILLIAMSBURG 9.5
PETERSBURG 6.8

…WISCONSIN…
KENOSHA 4 SW 8.1
CASSVILLE 8 NE 5.5
WYALUSING 5.2

…WEST VIRGINIA…
BLUEFIELD 2.0

This is About the Time That NYC and Others Started Up

Posted by Patrick on December 21, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities.

I just did a full update of all the cities listed here. One thing that stands out the most other than Syracuse’s huge lead is that this seems to be about the time the Nor’Easters started firing up. More to come on that late tonight or tomorrow. This time last season JFK had 14.6 inches of snow and some of the others that we didn’t expect also had some decent snow stats. Once NOAA updates the stats for this time last season I’ll post some of them.

Have a Great Night All!

What’s Going On With Colorado’s Snow or Lack of It

Posted by Patrick on December 16, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Colorado Snow Info. Tagged: , , .

I just updated all the cities and every time I do I keep expecting to see some of the Colorado cities move up. What’s going on??? Come on Denver, lets go Pueblo and Lakewood! It’s not looking pretty when even Richmond Virginia has more snow than you do. I think last season you were in the national snow contest for most of the season. Fort Collins is the only city out of Colorado that is beating Richmond. OK, the season has just begun but……

Syracuse continues to be the news and in the news as a matter of fact. The snow continues to fly and they may break the record today for their snowiest December on record which is 70.3 set back in 2000. So far for December 66.1 inches of the white fluffy stuff has fallen. Not too bad considering we are only half way through the month. If it keeps up they also have a shot at beating the record for the snowiest month ever in Da Cuse which is 78.1 back in January 2004.

Rochester, NY is also chasing their record for the snowiest December and need just a couple of inches to do it. The current record is 46.2 set back in 2008. Right now they are at 44.2 inches for December.

Don’t forget about last season’s weather. Remember some of the big Nor Easters that came nonstop. Syracuse and Rochester may have a jump start but that’s just what it is, just the start of the 1010 – 2011 snow season.

Have an Awesome day all :)

What's Going On With Colorado's Snow or Lack of It

Posted by Patrick on December 16, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities, Colorado Snow Info. Tagged: , , .

I just updated all the cities and every time I do I keep expecting to see some of the Colorado cities move up. What’s going on??? Come on Denver, lets go Pueblo and Lakewood! It’s not looking pretty when even Richmond Virginia has more snow than you do. I think last season you were in the national snow contest for most of the season. Fort Collins is the only city out of Colorado that is beating Richmond. OK, the season has just begun but……

Syracuse continues to be the news and in the news as a matter of fact. The snow continues to fly and they may break the record today for their snowiest December on record which is 70.3 set back in 2000. So far for December 66.1 inches of the white fluffy stuff has fallen. Not too bad considering we are only half way through the month. If it keeps up they also have a shot at beating the record for the snowiest month ever in Da Cuse which is 78.1 back in January 2004.

Rochester, NY is also chasing their record for the snowiest December and need just a couple of inches to do it. The current record is 46.2 set back in 2008. Right now they are at 44.2 inches for December.

Don’t forget about last season’s weather. Remember some of the big Nor Easters that came nonstop. Syracuse and Rochester may have a jump start but that’s just what it is, just the start of the 1010 – 2011 snow season.

Have an Awesome day all :)

Driest and Wettest Major U.S. Cities Update 12/12

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 13, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: , .

By Patrick – Need to hijack Stephen’s post for a second just to say that we did a full update on all of the snowiest cities in the US and it’s getting tighter near the top :) We now return to Stephen ;)

Remember that only cities with a population of 100,000 or more, and have stats available on the NWS climate pages, are eligible to be on this list. In all, I am keeping track of precipitation stats for 152 cities in the United States. Of the 152, the top 5 driest and top 5 wettest will be posted here.

Data is from December 12th.

Driest Major U.S. Cities
Rank City Precipitation
1 Las Vegas, NV 4.26
2 El Paso, TX 6.51
3 Bakersfield, CA 6.91
4 Palmdale, CA 7.58
5 Albuquerque, NM 7.89

Wettest Major U.S. Cities
Rank City Precipitation
1 San Juan, PR 84.00
2 Miami, FL 63.96
3 Mobile, AL 59.04
4 Nashville, TN 58.41
5 Fort Lauderdale, FL 58.39

Just for fun, here’s how the top 5 snowiest cities stack up against each other in precipitation amounts.

Snowiest Major U.S. Cities
Snow Rank City Precipitation
1 Syracuse, NY 40.82
2 Minneapolis, MN 31.86
3 Spokane, WA 17.29
4 Rochester, NY 37.01
5 Anchorage, AK 15.93

I’ll try and do a better job of updating these a little more frequently as we’re approaching the end of the year.

Have a great week everyone!