For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of their Thursday high temperature. The table below compares Thursday’s highs with Saturday’s and Sunday’s lows as reported by the National Weather Service.
New York State Temperatures | |||
---|---|---|---|
City | Thursday’s High | Saturday’s Low | Sunday’s Low |
Cities with weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high: 2 | |||
Albany | 22 | 8 | 12 |
Binghamton | 19 | 15 | 17 |
Buffalo | 22 | 19 | 22 |
Rochester | 22 | 14 | 21 |
Syracuse | 22 | 8 | 15 |
This one was a miss due to Saturday’s lows. Albany and Syracuse still were in the colder air early Saturday. That along with Rochester’s 8 degree difference proved to be this forecast’s doom. As a note, all of Saturday’s lows occurred very early in the day, with Albany’s low, the latest of the cities, being reported just after 6:30 am. Three out of the five cities were in range on Sunday, but at that point, the forecast was already a bust.
For the World forecast, I predicted that the four major cities in Pennsylvania will have snowfall range between a trace and a half an inch on Saturday. The table below shows how much snow each city received in the day, and compares it to the record for the day.
December 19th Pennsylvania Snow | ||
---|---|---|
City | Previous Record | Saturday Snowfall |
Cities with snowfall between trace and half an inch: 0 | ||
Allentown | 8.6 (1995) | 5.4 |
Erie | Not Available | 1.3 |
Philadelphia | 9.2 (1945) | 21.0 |
Pittsburgh | 4.8 (1982) | 4.7 |
This one was a complete disaster. On Thursday morning, the idea was the storm would just graze the PA cities. However, on Thursday night/Friday morning (depending on what time zone you are in and what you consider night and morning), I realized that was not to be the case. At least I knew in advance my forecast would be wrong…now if I could only have noticed that before I made that forecast, I would have been in better shape. As an interesting note, Philadelphia’s December 19th record held for over 60 years was broken on Saturday, shattering it by almost a foot.
So, it was an 0-2 forecast for the week. Last week, I wondered if maybe it was time for a change with the forecasts. This week, I missed both. I guess that answers my question.
Golden SnowCast Results | |
---|---|
Region | Record |
Overall Percentage: 62.5% | |
NYS | 2-2 |
World | 3-1 |
Overall | 5-3 |
Missing both forecasts puts the percentage in the 60s. Now to reach my goal of 90%, I need to get 22 straight predictions (11 weeks worth) correct. As we’re entering the heart of the snow season, I doubt I’ll be able to reach the 90% goal. At this point, I’m just trying to avoid going back to 50% for the season.
Have a great week everyone!
Our total was about 14 inches (estimated – I never took a final measurement).
Sad thing is, I was joking with a friend on how I should have said “half a yard” instead of “half an inch” and even that wouldn’t have been good enough either. I just should avoid forecasting PA weather whenever possible.
Well at least you only missed Philly by 20 1/2 inches. Not too bad I suppose Stephen