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Golden SnowCast Forecast 17 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 30, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State prediction, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have warmer lows on Sunday and Monday than Friday’s highs. The table below compares the temperatures from each day, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Friday Highs Sunday Lows Monday Lows
GSB Cities with warmer low temperatures: 5
Albany 40 31 41
Binghamton 32 28 37
Buffalo 31 37 38
Rochester 33 38 37
Syracuse 33 34 40

All five had warmer low temperatures on Monday than Friday’s highs, and three of the five had warmer lows on Sunday, so this forecast is correct. As an interesting note, three of the five had Monday’s lows warmer than Friday’s highs by 5 degrees or more.

My World prediction stated that all of the selected cities in Texas would have mostly sunny skies on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the cloud cover for the five cities, according to the National Weather Service.

Texas Sky Cover
City Sunday Monday
Texas cities with under .5 sky cover: 5
Austin 0.1 0.0
Corpus Cristi 0.3 0.0
Dallas 0.2 0.0
El Paso 0.0 0.1
San Antonio 0.1 0.0

All five cities were lower than 0.5 on both days, so the forecast is correct. As a note, Houston did not have sky cover data available, so I used the next biggest city that had NWS reports, which was Corpus Cristi.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 30-4 88.23%
NYS 15-2 88.23%
World 15-2 88.23%

Another perfect week, and the goal is still possible. Just three batches of forecasts remain, and all six predictions must come true for the 90% threshold to be met.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 17

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 26, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

As we’re nearing the end of March, most areas seem to be in the clear for snow…at least for now.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a look at temperatures, comparing today’s highs with lows to start next week.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have warmer low temperatures on either Sunday or Monday than Friday’s high temperatures.

Most of the GSB cities had high temperatures hovering around freezing. Albany is the only one that reached 40, doing so at about 1:30 this morning. The forecast will be correct if at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities have Friday’s high is colder than either Sunday or Monday’s low temperatures.

For the World forecast, it’s a cloud cover forecast for Texas.

All of the five selected cities in Texas will have more sun than clouds on either Sunday or Monday.

I believe this is the first time I’ve done a cloud cover prediction in the Golden SnowCast. The five cities used for verification are Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio. If the reported cloud cover is under 0.5 for all five cities on either day, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Sweet Sixteen Snowfall

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 22, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , .

The first two rounds (3 if you count the 64/65 game) of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament are complete and we’re down to sixteen teams looking for this year’s national championship. I felt it would be fun to highlight this season’s snowfall amounts for each team, so I’ve made a table showing the schools’ locations and seasonal snowfall.

Sweet Sixteen Snowfall
School Location Season Snowfall
Baylor University Waco, TX 3.7
Butler University Indianapolis, IN 33.0
Cornell University Ithaca, NY 81.6
Duke University Durham, NC 8.0
Kansas State University Manhattan, KS 40.7
Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 42.6
Ohio State University Columbus, OH 49.9
Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 21.2
University of Kentucky Lexington, KY 23.7
University of Northern Iowa Cedar Falls, IA 52.8
University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN 5.2
University of Washington Seattle, WA Trace
St. Mary’s College Moraga, CA None
Syracuse University Syracuse, NY 106.1
West Virginia University Morgantown, WV 54.0
Xavier University Cincinnati, OH 38.4

Some cities listed did not have data available, so I used information from a close location. The reports for Morgantown, WV indicate no snowfall this season. I find that hard to believe, so the 70.5 is from Fairmont, WV about half an hour away. I have sent an email to a meteorologist in West Virginia, so if I hear back, I’ll update the total.

Update (5/26): The meteorologist in West Virginia said there was not an official number, but that about 54 inches looks good, so I’ve edited the table.

Have a great week and enjoy the Regional Semis on Thursday and Friday!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 21, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that at least one of the five Golden Snowball cities would have warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Friday Saturday
GSB Cities with warmer high temperatures on Saturday: 2
Albany 68 70
Binghamton 63 65
Buffalo 53 48
Rochester 65 51
Syracuse 64 56

Albany and Binghamton pulled through and the forecast is correct. A pretty substantial drop occured in Rochester, high temperatures were almost 15 degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. All the other cities had a single digit difference in high temperatures.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least one of the chosen cities in Colorado would have more snow on Friday than at least one of the chosen cities in Wisconsin would have on Saturday. The table below shows snowfall amounts in Colorado and Wisconsin for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Colorado and Wisconsin Snowfall
City Friday Saturday
Colorado cities with more snow: 3
Colorado Springs, CO 0.9 None
Denver, CO 1.7 None
Pueblo, CO 2.2 None
Green Bay, WI Trace None
Madison, WI 1.1 0.7
Milwaukee, WI Trace 0.8

The lowest of the Wisconsin cities was Green Bay, getting no snowfall on Saturday. All three Colorado cities had snowfall on Friday, so this forecast is correct. As it turns out, all three of the Colorado cities had more snow on Friday than any of the Wisconsin cities did on Saturday. As an interesting note, Madison had more snow on Friday than Colorado Springs did, and a higher two day total than either Colorado Springs or Denver.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 28-4 87.5%
NYS 14-2 87.5%
World 14-2 87.5%

Both forecasts were correct and the quest for 90% continues. The plan is to go up to four more forecasts. If I don’t have any more bye weeks, the end of this season’s Golden SnowCast should be in mid-April. I’m thinking about changing things up for next season, going toward more of a targeted scoring system (the closer to actual results the forecast is, the more points received), and adding a longer range forecast. More details on that will likely be given either toward the end of this season, or the beginning of the 2010-11 campaign.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 16

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 17, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

First, a quick review on how the Golden SnowCast works. In each forecast post, I make two predictions, one for New York State (home of the Golden Snowball contest) and one for anywhere else in the World (most often somewhere in the USA). The idea is to make forecasts with some certainty to them. To achieve this, there will be no waffle words like “chance of” in any of the predictions. The goal is 90% accuracy by the end of the season.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

Spring officially arrives on Saturday, so I thought it would be a good idea to have some comparisons in my predictions this time.

Up first, as always, is the New York State outlook. Once again, it involves temperatures, but this time, it’s a look at the last day of Winter and the first day of Spring.

At least one of the Golden Snowball Cities will have warmer Saturday highs than Friday highs.

A cold front will be moving into the area on Saturday, which complicated this forecast. I initially said a majority would have warmer temperatures on Saturday, but now my confidence in that has shrunk. If at least one of the five GSB cities has warmer high temperatures on Saturday than on Friday, this forecast will be correct.

While there is warming in New York State, there is still signs of Winter in the United States. The World forecast compares snow totals for cities in Colorado and Wisconsin.

At least one of the 3 chosen Colorado cities will have more snow on Friday than one or more of the 3 selected Wisconsin cities receive on Saturday.

The cities used for verifying this forecast are Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo in Colorado and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin. If any one of the Colorado cities has more snow on Friday than any one of the Wisconsin cities receives on Saturday, this forecast will be correct.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 15 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 14, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I had two predictions involving high temperatures for the Golden Snowball cities on either Thursday or Friday. All of them were to be at least 5 degrees over, and one of them would be 10 or more above, average. The table below shows Thursday and Friday’s average and recorded highs, according to the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Thursday Average/Recorded Friday Average/Recorded
GSB Cities with high temperatures 10 above average: 5
Albany 42/51 43/53
Binghamton 39/57 39/45
Buffalo 41/61 41/54
Rochester 41/61 41/51
Syracuse 41/57 42/50

Turns out, they all reached 10+ above average on at least one day, so the forecast is correct. In most cities, the difference decreased on Friday, Albany’s was the only one to increase. Buffalo and Rochester were both 20 above average on Thursday. A very mild couple of days indeed.

For the World forecast, I believed that on either Thursday or Friday, at least one of five selected cities in Maryland and Pennsylvania would have at least a half of an inch of rain. The table below shows precipitation amounts according to the National Weather Service.

Maryland and Pennsylvania Rainfall
City Thursday Friday
Cities with .5 inches of rain or more: 2
Allentown, PA None 0.28
Baltimore, MD None 0.98
Erie, PA None 0.03
Philadelphia, PA Trace 0.54
Pittsburgh, PA 0.02 0.24

Baltimore and Philadelphia surpassed the 0.5 mark on Friday, so the forecast is correct. Only Pittsburgh had measurable precipitation on Thursday, while Erie had just a few hundredths of an inch on Friday. For most of the cities highlighted, it was a very wet way to end the work week.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 26-4 86.67%
NYS 13-2 86.67%
World 13-2 86.67%

Both forecasts are correct, and the quest for 90% remains in tact. The next 5 weeks need to be prefect to get to the milestone I set at the beginning of the season. The past five forecasts were almost perfect, going 9 for 10. The forecast 14′s snowfall prediction for southern New England brought the 2nd miss on the World side. The only truly terrible outlook remains forecast 4′s snowfall amounts for Pennsylvania.

Happy pi Day everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 15

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 9, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

Last week was my bye week. Let’s see if the week off helps me with my predictions, or if it will lead to rusty picks.

It’s a bit of a warm stretch now in the upstate New York region, so the New York State forecast involves a temperature forecast for the GSB cities.

All of the Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures 5 degrees above average, with at least one city topping average highs by at least 10 degrees, on either Thursday or Friday.

It’s one of the rare forecasts where there are two standards going on at once. First off, all five of the GSB cities must be 5 degrees above average on either day. In addition, at least one of those cities must be above average by 10 degrees or more on either Thursday or Friday. These do not have to occur on the same day for the forecast to be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a rain prediction for Maryland and Pennsylvania.

At least one of the five major reporting stations in Maryland and Pennsylvania will receive a half an inch or more of rain on either Thursday or Friday.

The five reporting stations that will be used are Baltimore, MD, and Pennsylvania’s Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If one of these five cities report at least 0.5 inches of rain on either Thursday or Friday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great week everyone!

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Expansion?

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 5, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: .

I’m stepping out of my usual role once again, and this time it’s to something COMPLETELY off topic. But it is one of my other passions, so it’s good enough for me.

On yesterday’s On The Block, a local radio program on WSKO 1260 (simulcast on Time Warner Cable Sports), the host Brent Axe spent a good portion of time talking about the possibility of the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament expanding to 96 teams. I sent an email to the show, and it actually was read on the air. So here is that e-mail:

I am not completely against expansion. Division I has one of, if not the lowest percentage of teams that get to the tournament out of the major sports. Even with expansion, the percentage of teams will still be lower than most, so the sense of accomplishment will still be there. However, there would be a right way and a wrong way to expand. If they simply add 31 more “at large” teams, that would be a mistake and I wouldn’t be interested in that. Right now, in all conferences not named Ivy League, the regular season championship does not mean much. That would change if the 31 added spots went to conference regular season champions. If the regular season champion and tournament champion are the same (or if your conference doesn’t have a tournament), then the 2nd automatic bid goes to the #2 regular season team.

So, what are your thoughts on the possible tournament expansion?

Golden SnowCast Forecast 14 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 3, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have above freezing temperatures for either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the high temperatures for both days, as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State High Temperatures
City Monday Tuesday
GSB Cities with high temperatures within above freezing: 5
Albany 42 45
Binghamton 35 39
Buffalo 36 36
Rochester 37 38
Syracuse 37 40

All five were above freezing, so the forecast was correct. Albany was the hot spot to be among the five, as both days high temperatures were well into the 40s. Buffalo was the only one within 5 degrees of freezing on both days.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 3 out of 5 New England NWS stations would have measurable snowfall on either Monday or Tuesday. The table below shows the NWS snowfall reports.

New England Snowfall
City Monday Tuesday
Cities with measurable snowfall: 2
Bridgeport, CT None None
Boston, MA 0.2 None
Hartford, CT None None
Providence, RI Trace Trace
Worcester, MA 0.5 None

The streak has come to an end, unfortunately. None of the five had measurable snowfall on Tuesday, and only 2 of them had 0.1 or more on Monday. That means only 2 had measurable snowfall on either day. Providence was the only one to have some sort of snowfall on both days, but each was just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record Percentage
Overall 24-4 85.71%
NYS 12-2 85.71%
World 12-2 85.71%

This week was a split, so the percentage went down a little bit. The New York State and World forecasts now have the same percentage, just over 85%. If my plan to have 20 forecasts holds up, there is no room for error to reach the 90% target.

Have a great rest of the week!

Clearing Up a Few Tidbits

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on March 2, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: .

I figured it would be worthwhile for me to step out of my usual role and make this post regarding a few issues.

First off, the lack of updates. There is a post over on the New York State Golden Snowball site regarding that. As another note, I am not an admin, nor do I want to be at this time, so I can’t make the updates either. I’ve been fairly busy with work and online classes, so even if I was able to make updates, I am not sure how often those would have occurred. I will be done with my latest course by the end of the month, so with any luck I’ll be able to make more posts at that time.

Also, I’ve noticed comments about Flagstaff, AZ. Yes, they have more snow than Syracuse. However, part of the criteria for making the list is having a population size of 100,000 or more. Their population a bit short of that, so that is why they are not on the list. Pat will have to explain why the threshold is in place, instead of using all NWS sites, when that time comes. I have an idea of why, but it would be better if it came from him, especially if my thought is not correct. ;) For now, part of what I’d like to do when I’m done with my course is to have a ranking of the cities that are short of the threshold, but do have National Weather Service reports. I’d also use reports from stations that aren’t used on our official listing, like Dulles for Washington, DC. I figure it could be similar to the former WOW contest on the Golden Snowball site.

With this being the first year of this contest, we’re all working out the kinks. Things haven’t quite gone as planned on my end, as I would have liked to taken more of a reporting role like I did earlier with the first snow storm that hit the mid-Atlantic states and snow in Arizona. Perhaps I’ll be able to do that more next season when my program should be completed. We’re using everything that has happened this season as a learning experience to make the future seasons’ contests go as smoothly as possible.

Thanks for your understanding in all this and have a great week!