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Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 2, 2011
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

So much for getting the forecasts up by New Year’s. Basically, Shot In the Dark forecasts are a gut reaction, with little to no research involved in the outlook. The seasonal forecast is perhaps the biggest gut reaction of them all, as they involve results about three months away from now.

This time, the Golden Snow Globe SITD focuses on the standings at the end of the season. While the Colorado cities have not had a great showing in the latest rankings, as the highest is Fort Collins at 48th, I do believe at least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May, when the contest comes to a close.

Bull’s Eye: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 5 in mid May.
On Target: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May.
Complete Miss: All major Colorado cities are out of the top 10 in mid May.

Check out the Golden Snowball site to see the GSB Winter 2011 Forecast.

Introducing this year's forecasting features

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 29, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: .

Visitors may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I’ve worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I’ll begin forecasting once again.

The first change is that I’ll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year’s Golden SnowCast: I’ll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.

Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I’m introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull’s Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season’s end.

Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone’s forecast will be posted on the respective sites.

Finally, I’ll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I’ll try to use it there. If not, it’ll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.

I’m sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year’s Eve, and the January look on New Year’s Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Driest and Wettest Major U.S. Cities Update 12/12

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 13, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: , .

By Patrick – Need to hijack Stephen’s post for a second just to say that we did a full update on all of the snowiest cities in the US and it’s getting tighter near the top :) We now return to Stephen ;)

Remember that only cities with a population of 100,000 or more, and have stats available on the NWS climate pages, are eligible to be on this list. In all, I am keeping track of precipitation stats for 152 cities in the United States. Of the 152, the top 5 driest and top 5 wettest will be posted here.

Data is from December 12th.

Driest Major U.S. Cities
Rank City Precipitation
1 Las Vegas, NV 4.26
2 El Paso, TX 6.51
3 Bakersfield, CA 6.91
4 Palmdale, CA 7.58
5 Albuquerque, NM 7.89

Wettest Major U.S. Cities
Rank City Precipitation
1 San Juan, PR 84.00
2 Miami, FL 63.96
3 Mobile, AL 59.04
4 Nashville, TN 58.41
5 Fort Lauderdale, FL 58.39

Just for fun, here’s how the top 5 snowiest cities stack up against each other in precipitation amounts.

Snowiest Major U.S. Cities
Snow Rank City Precipitation
1 Syracuse, NY 40.82
2 Minneapolis, MN 31.86
3 Spokane, WA 17.29
4 Rochester, NY 37.01
5 Anchorage, AK 15.93

I’ll try and do a better job of updating these a little more frequently as we’re approaching the end of the year.

Have a great week everyone!

Some Syracuse Snow Stats

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 9, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: , .

Good luck saying that title 5 times fast! :)

I posted this on goldensnowball.com, but I figured it would be worthwhile to have on here as well.

According to the National Weather Service, the storm produced the fourth highest snowfall totals in any four day period on record. Below are the top 4 four day totals, with the last date in the four day period in parenthesis.

44.6 inches (2/1/1966)
44.5 inches (3/14/1993)
44.3 inches (1/31/1966)
43.2 inches (12/8/2010)

I find it a bit interesting that the three higher amounts are all in the later portion of the season. So, in other words, this the highest amount of snow Syracuse has ever had in a four day period this early in the season.

It was also the 6th highest 5 day total, and the 5th highest 3 day total.

It snowed continuously from 6:16 AM December 4th to 8:10 AM December 8th. That’s a total of 97 hours and 54 minutes.

By the way, Winter has not officially begun yet. That’s December 21st, almost 2 weeks away.

On another note, I will try to get an update on the driest and wettest cities done this weekend. I fell a little bit behind with that lately, so I’ll try to make it up soon.

A Thanksgiving Forecast

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 20, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: .

I thought it would be fitting to share A Thanksgiving Forecast, given that it’s just about that time of the year.

Turkeys will thaw in the morning, then warm in the oven to an afternoon high near 190 F. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or cold shoulder.

During the late afternoon and evening, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey, causing an accumulation of one to two inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other. Please pass the gravy.

A weight watch and indigestion warning have been issued for the entire area, with increased stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening, the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers, dropping to a low of 34 F in the refrigerator.

Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday, high pressure to eat sandwiches will be established. Flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50 percent chance of scattered soup late in the day. We expect a warming trend where soup develops. By early next week, eating pressure will be low as the only wish left will be the bone.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Driest and Wettest Major U.S. Cities Update 11/07

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 8, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized. Tagged: , .

Before I get into the top 5 driest and wettest U.S. major cities, here’s a brief idea of how I collected the data. First, the cities must have a population size of 100,000 or more. Second, populations are not added for a site that has multiple city names. For example, Seattle-Tacoma just goes as Seattle for this list, and just uses the Seattle population to determine if it is a major city. Also, the city must have an official National Weather Service reporting site. Finally, if a city has multiple NWS sites, I use the one that seems to be the most official, usually the one that is listed first on the NWS observed weather reports pages. If you have any questions/comments about my method, feel free to leave a comment on this post.

Now for the lists. Data is from November 7th.

Driest Major U.S. Cities
Rank City Precipitation
1 Las Vegas, NV 4.12
2 Honolulu, HI 5.26
3 Bakersfield, CA 5.84
4 El Paso, TX 6.51
5 Palmdale, CA 7.31

Wettest Major U.S. Cities
Rank City Precipitation
1 San Juan, PR 78.67
2 Miami, FL 63.76
3 Fort Lauderdale, FL 58.27
4 Wilmington, NC 54.39
5 Mobile, AL 54.31

I’ll try to get updates going each week depending on how the statistics change.

Have a great week everyone!

Just a Reminder…

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 5, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

If you had been celebrating Daylight Saving Time in North America, remember to change your clocks back one hour this weekend.

Since it is November, I’m sure we’ll begin tracking snowfall for the 2010-11 season very soon. Will Syracuse repeat, or will a different city take the title of snowiest major U.S. city? Stay with Golden Snow Globe throughout the season to see which cities start off on top and if they can stay there for the season.

In addition, one of my personal goals is to have updates on the wettest and driest major U.S. cities. If all goes well, I should be able to get an update up this weekend. I plan on posting the top 5 of each every weekend from now until the end of the year, when the stats are reset. Once 2011 begins, those updates will be less frequent.

Also, don’t forget about the Golden Snowball contest, which involves five of the Upstate New York cities Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.

Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy the upcoming snow season!

Some Syracuse Snow Shots

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on May 16, 2010
Posted in: Snow Pictures and Gallery. Tagged: , .

With Pat’s decision to unofficially officially call the contest over and Syracuse the inaugural champion, I thought it might be fun to post some of my pictures from the season.

If you recall, the early part of the season, Syracuse was lagging behind in the standings. The picture below, taken on New Year’s Eve, tells that story quite well.
December Snow
Indeed, there is some snow, but not as much as we’re used to for that time of year.

Let’s fast forward the look back to February. For those of you who don’t know, I work part time on late nights, often getting home well after 3 AM. For the most part, it’s not too bad traveling. The worst part in the winter is typically getting home as more often than not, the roads (including the highways) are not in the best shape in the very early morning hours. In late February, Syracuse was stuck with a record breaking snowfall, and I could not get to work. I tried to, but after about 3 miles, the snow proved to be too much, and I conceded defeat and retreated home. The next few photos show the conditions at about the time I would have gotten home, had I somehow managed to arrive at work.
February Snow 1February Snow 2
Yeah, that would not have been fun to experience.

That day, and the day after, most (if not all) the area schools were closed. I don’t remember a time in the past decade when the schools were shut down for 2 straight days. The only other event that I can recall is the Blizzard of ’93, and that is going back a ways. A couple of pictures show the morning scene (when the busses would have likely arrived).
February Snow 3February Snow 4
I wouldn’t want the busses out in that either, so let the kids (and adults) enjoy the snow for the day.

From one extreme to the other, April started out with record breaking heat. This led to another occurrence I don’t remember too often in the Syraucse area…cherry blossoms in mid-April.
Mid April Cherry Blossoms
The end of Winter? Hardly.

As it turned out, Syracuse Winter had one last gasp on Mother’s Day weekend. It wasn’t much, but the early morning hours featured some snow flakes. Unfortunately, I was unable to get pictures of the event.

Have a great week everyone! By the way, if you have some snow pictures, feel free to send us some. Uh…the pictures, not the snow. :) Details are available here.

2009-10 Golden SnowDown: 1-50

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 27, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

At last, it’s time to reveal the top 50 NWS reporting stations.

Rankings 11-50
Rank Location City Population Season Snowfall
11 Burlington, VT 38,889 91.0
12 Rochester, NY 219,773 89.6
13 Cheyenne, WY 53,011 87.3
14 Mansfield, OH 49,579 84.1
15 Binghamton, NY 47,380 81.4
16 Bluefield, VA 5,078 81.1
17 Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 78.7
18 Pittsburgh, PA 334,563 77.4
19 Baltimore, MD 651,154 77.0
20 Youngstown, OH 82,026 75.7
21 Buffalo, NY 292,648 74.1
22 Cold Bay, AK 74 74.0
23 Muskegon, MI 40,105 73.6
24 Washington (Dulles), DC 572,059 73.2
25 Wilmington, DE 72,664 72.7
26 Scottsbluff, NE 14,732 72.4
27 Grand Rapids, MI 197,800 72.2
28 Caribou, ME 8,312 69.6
29 Des Moines, IA 198,682 69.0
30 Sault Ste. Marie, MI 16,542 68.8
31 Casper, WY 49,644 64.9
32 Worcester, MA 172,648 64.6
33 Akron, OH 217,074 63.1
34 Juneau, AK 30,711 62.2
35 Charleston, WV 53,421 61.3
35 Duluth, MN 86,918 61.3
37 Valley, NE 1,788 60.6
38 Anchorage, AK 260,283 60.5
39 North Platte, NE 23,878 60.2
40 Sioux City, IA 8,2807 59.8
40 Allentown, PA 106,632 59.8
42 Cleveland, OH 478,403 59.5
43 Sisseton, SD 2,572 59.3
44 Denver, CO 554,636 58.8
45 Watertown, SD 20,237 58.6
46 Riverton, WY 9,310 58.4
47 Atlantic City, NJ 40,517 58.1
48 Harrisburg, PA 48,950 57.3
48 South Bend, IN 107,789 57.3
50 Sioux Falls, SD 123,975 57.1

You didn’t believe I’d just reveal the top 10 that way, did you? Big surprise for me among the 40 listed is Cheyenne, WY almost cracking the top 10, coming in 13th. A little humorous to me is Cold Bay Alaska, population 74, has 74 inches, one inch per person. Probably won’t see that again any time soon. Now, here are the top 10:

10. Ely, NV: 91.1
Ely’s population is 4,041 and just snuck in ahead of Burlington, VT and has the most snow among the Nevada cities.

9. Erie, PA: 91.4
Erie, population 103,717, the 2nd place city among those with population over 100,000 comes in 9th among all NWS sites.

8. Lander, WY: 102.4
Lander, population 6,867, has the most snow among Wyoming sites.

7. Elkins, WV: 104.7
Elkins, population 7,032, is 7th overall, but is 2nd among West Virginia stations.

6. Syracuse, NY: 106.1
Syracuse, with a population of 147,036, having the most snow among cities with population over 100,000, is 6th place.

5. Yakutat, AK: 107.1
Yakutat, population 680, is the top city among those with population under 1,000.

4. Beckley, WV: 132.9
Beckley’s population is 17,254 and has the most snow among West Virginia sites.

3. Flagstaff, AZ: 141.8
As mentioned in the previous post, Flagstaff, with population 52,894 is not the top city, but does have the most among cities with a population of 50,000 or more.

2. Marquette, MI: 145.6
Marquette, population 19,661, has the most snow among those with a population of 5,000 or more and is in 2nd place overall.

1. Valdez, AK: 293.3
Valdez, population 4,036, with almost 300 inches of snow, claims the top spot among all NWS sites.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this countdown for the season among all NWS sites. Remember, all snowfall data is from early April, and population statistics are from the most recent estimates available from city-data.com.

Have a great week everyone!

2009-10 Golden SnowDown: 51-100

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on April 25, 2010
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

As we are closer to revealing the season’s snowiest National Weather Service stations, here are the ones that fell in the 51-100 ranking range.

Rankings 51-100
Rank Location City Population Season Snowfall
51 Washington (Reagan), DC 572,059 56.1
52 Bangor, ME 31,473 55.7
53 Norfolk, NE 23,516 55.0
54 Chicago, IL 2,896,016 54.2
55 Bismark, ND 55,532 54.1
56 Islip, NY 20,575 53.8
57 Blacksburg, VA 39,573 53.6
58 Waterloo, IA 68,747 52.8
59 Rochester, MN 85,806 52.5
60 Kodiak, AK 6,334 52.0
61 Concord, NH 42,255 51.8
62 New York (Central Park), NY 8,008,278 51.4
63 Great Falls, MT 56,690 51.0
63 Billings, MT 89,847 51.0
65 Rockford, IL 150,115 50.7
65 Madison, WI 208,054 50.7
67 Huron, SD 11,893 50.6
67 Columbus, OH 711,470 50.6
69 Jackson, KY 2,490 50.5
70 Elko, NV 16,708 50.3
71 Davenport, IA 98,359 50.1
72 Scranton, PA 76,415 48.5
73 Mitchell, SD 14,558 48.0
74 Newark, NJ 273,546 47.9
75 Omaha, NE 390,007 47.6
76 Grand Forks (University), ND 49,321 47.3
77 New York (LaGuardia), NY 8,008,278 47.2
78 Moline, IL 43,088 46.9
79 Fargo, ND 90,599 46.6
80 International Falls, MN 6,703 46.4
81 Hastings, NE 24,064 45.5
82 Chanhassen, MN 20,321 45.4
82 Albany, NY 95,658 45.4
84 Flint, MI 124,943 45.1
85 King Salmon, AK 442 44.7
86 Grand Island, NE 42,940 44.5
87 Kansas City, MO 441,545 44.3
88 Detroit, MI 951,270 43.7
89 Alpena, MI 11,304 43.5
90 Nome, AK 3,505 43.4
90 Pierre, SD 13,876 43.4
92 Dubuque, IA 57,686 43.3
93 Mobridge, SD 3,574 43.2
94 Roanoke, VA 94,911 43.1
95 Green Bay, WI 102,313 43.0
96 Lansing, MI 119,128 42.6
97 Mason City, IA 29,172 42.5
98 Peoria, IL 112,936 42.4
99 Rhinelander, WI 7,735 42.3
100 Lincoln, NE 225,581 41.6

Albany, having the least snow among the Golden Snowball cities, is in a tie for 82nd place in the country. It’s also a bit interesting to see the differences among cities with multiple reporting stations. For example, New York City’s Central Park station is in 62nd place, while La Guardia in 77th and JFK was on the previous post at 101. Grand Forks’ North Dakota University station is in 76th but the airport was 134th. Washington, DC’s Reagan is 51st, with Dulles yet to be revealed. Just goes to show how much difference a few miles can make. That is the beauty, and the beast, of the system.

In the final update, the top 50 will be shown. Who is #1? It’s not Syracuse, NY…or Flagstaff, AZ.