With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures with the 5 biggest U.S. cities. Below are the coldest lows for Los Angeles and Houston, and the warmest highs for Chicago, New York City and Philadelphia.

Los Angeles: 50
Houston: 55
Chicago: 45
New York City: 53
Philadelphia: 52

Bull’s Eye: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia’s warmest highs.
On Target: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than 2 of the three warmest highs.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

This is an On Target forecast. But was it enough to reach the 1.00 goal?

No! It was the Golden Snowball forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. The forecasts here were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!

It’s the final PBR Forecast of the season. And, the way things have gone, the end couldn’t have come soon enough. The forecasts here have been fine for the most part, but the ones over on Golden Snowball were rough. More information on the final PBR Forecast to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last outlook.

The previous forecast involved snowfall for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre from the 23rd to the 24th. The ended up with 9.5 inches total.

Bull’s Eye: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 10 inches of snow.
On Target: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 5 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has less than 5 inches of snow.

A half of an inch from a Bull’s Eye, but an On Target forecast works.

However, the GSB forecast let me down once again, and I’m still below the 1.00 goal. I need 2 Bull’s Eyes to get to 1.00. The only way to do that is for a Bull’s Eye in each the GSB and GSG forecast.

Now on to this forecast, which involves the 5 biggest U.S. cities: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia. With 2 warm weather cities and 3 colder ones, it is tough to figure something they all would have in common. So, instead, I will be comaring LA and Houston’s low temperatures with high temperatures from NYC, Chicago and Philadelphia.

Bull’s Eye: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia’s warmest highs.
On Target: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than 2 of the three warmest highs.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Be sure to check out the forecast over on Golden Snowball as well. Have a great week everyone!

It may be the first full week of Spring, according to the calendar, but there is one more push of winter weather at the start of the “new” season. This forecast will ride on just one city. More details on that to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

The previous outlook involved Indiana weather, or lack there of it. Below are the precipitation totals for the chosen Indiana cities from the 11th through the 13th.

Evansville: Trace
Fort Wayne: None
Indianapolis: None
Lafayette: None
South Bend: None

Bull’s Eye: All five of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
On Target: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
Complete Miss: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have measurable precipitation this weekend.

Four out of five had no precipitation, while Evansville recorded a trace. That’s all five without measurable precipitation, and a Bull’s Eye.

However, the GSB forecast let me down once again, and I’m still below the 1.00 goal. Just two forecasts remain, so I need to get it together quickly.

Now on to this forecast, which involves snowfall. Snow will be moving into the northeast U.S. and it looks like the area around the NY/PA border will be hit pretty good. As a result, I’m putting it all on just one area, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA.

Bull’s Eye: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 10 inches of snow.
On Target: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has at least 5 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has less than 5 inches of snow.

Be sure to check out the forecast over at Golden Snowball as well!

While it’s still March, I wanted to get the April forecast in now. Before I do that though, I’ll give a quick update on the March forecast.

If you recall, the forecast for the month involved snowfall in Colorado. Below are the snowfall totals for the month so far, with monthly average in parenthesis.

Colorado Springs: 0.6 (9.4)
Denver: 4.1 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)

Needless to say, this one appears to not be working out the way I expected. I’ll need a late snowfall push in 2 of the cities to get to the On Target result, and all three to get in the Bull’s Eye category.

Now on to the April forecast. I believe that the snow machine is coming to an end for the season. As a result, this forecast involves the Top 5 in the latest update. I believe they will remain mostly as they are in mid April. Below are the top 5 cities as of the update earlier.

1. Syracuse, NY
2. Rochester, NY
3. South Bend, IN
4. Erie, PA
5. Buffalo, NY

Bull’s Eye: All of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
On Target: Three of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.

Happy Spring everyone! Be sure to check out the SITD forecast over at Golden Snowball as well.

This forecast will be a bit unusual, as it involves no measurable precipitation over the weekend. There is a reason for this though, which will be explained in detail tomorrow, both here and on Golden Snowball. But first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

Snow was in the forecast for Cleveland, OH, Toledo, OH and Erie, PA. Here are their totals from February 25th through the 27th.

Cleveland: 8.9
Toledo: 7.3
Erie: 8.6

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 6 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend, .
On Target: All three get at least 6 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: One of the three gets less than 6 inches of snow this weekend.

All three were above 6 inches, but none made it to a foot. So, this is an On Target forecast.

However, that’s not enough to get me to 1.00 as the GSB forecast was also On Target. I increase the average by 0.01 to 0.93. Just 3 forecasts remain, enough to either finish out strong or end with a whimper.

Now on to this forecast, which involves no precipitation. This is for the state of Indiana, which I had planned on doing a forecast for at this time for two reasons. One of which is that most areas will be having their St. Patrick’s Day parade this weekend, and South Bend, Indiana is home to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. But there is another reason for it, and that will be explained tomorrow morning. It just turns out that there isn’t too much expected for Indiana this weekend. The five Indiana cities involved in this forecast are Evansville, Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, Lafayette and South Bend.

Bull’s Eye: All five of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
On Target: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have no measurable precipitation this weekend.
Complete Miss: A majority of the listed Indiana cities have measurable precipitation this weekend.

Be sure to check out the forecast on Golden Snowball as well!

It’s March, and the top of the standings show a complete lack of Colorado cities. So, this month’s forecast will focus on them. Before that happens, though, it’s a look back at the February prediction.

February’s forecast involved the Midwest, comparing the rest of the month with the first two days. Below are the totals for the five cities in the final 26 days, with the first 2 days in parenthesis.

Chicago: 8.8 (20.2)
Detroit: 21.1 (10.6)
Kansas City: 7.3 (8.9)
Madison: 9.5 (14.3)
Milwaukee: 12.0 (17.6)

Bull’s Eye: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for all five cities.
On Target: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for three or four of the cities.
Complete Miss: Snowfall totals for the first 2 days of February will be more than the rest of the month for two or fewer of the cities.

Detroit was the only one to have more snow in the final 26 days of February than the first 2, so it is an On Target forecast.

Here are the results, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

The GSG forecast was a Bull’s Eye, so as a result, the average sits at 1.25, above the goal set before the forecasts began. My intention at the beginning of the season was to make March the final SITD forecast. However, the new plan is to have this one go for the month, and in a few weeks I will post the final one. This would give me 5 forecast periods, including the one done to start the season.

Now on to this month, which focuses on Colorado. Three cities, Colorado Springs, Denver and Pueblo, are below their average snowfall for the season. While I don’t expect that to change by the end of the month, I do anticipate above average snowfall for them for March.

Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.

Here are the average snowfall marks for each city.
Colorado Springs: 9.4
Denver: 11.7
Pueblo: 6.4

Remember to check out Golden Snowball to see the March forecast there. Have a great month everyone!

Tired of winter yet? Well, if you live in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, it doesn’t matter because more snow is on the way! More details to come, but first, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

The previous forecast involved snowfall for Billings, MT, Cheyenne, WY, and Salt Lake City, UT. Below are their snow totals for the 20th and 21st.

Billings: 3.7
Cheyenne: 0.4
Salt Lake City: 2.4

Bull’s Eye: All 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
On Target: 2 of the 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 1 or 0 of the 3 cities has 1-4 inches of snow.

Just missed the Bull’s Eye by 0.6 inches in Cheyenne, but On Target is fine too.

However, that’s not enough to keep me at 1.00 as it was yet another Complete Miss over at GSB. With that, I’ve fallen to 0.92 for the season. Just 4 more weeks remain for the forecasts to reach that 1.00 mark.

I need a strong finish on GSB, but it won’t mean anything if the forecasts here fall flat. Let’s end February on a happy note! Happy, that is, if you live in northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania and love snow. If not, well, then, why are you on this site anyway?! I’m sure residents in that area already know about the storm coming their way, so let’s just get on with the forecast, focused on cities Cleveland and Toledo, OH as well as Erie, PA!

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 6 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend, .
On Target: All three get at least 6 inches of snow this weekend.
Complete Miss: One of the three gets less than 6 inches of snow this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone, and be sure to check out the forecast over on Golden Snowball!

I wanted to get these forecasts done on Friday, but there were some difficulties, which will be explained in a little bit. This forecast goes a little bit east of the last one, focusing on Montana, Utah and Wyoming.

Before we get into that, it’s the results from the last one. Unfortunately, when I checked for Reno’s stats, snowfall data was missing for Wednesday and Thursday, the 2 days involved in the forecast. That is the problem with verifying forecasts, sometimes results aren’t available as quickly as one would like. The Reno stats are available now, so the next forecast is coming up soon. The delay doesn’t have too big of an impact here, but it made the forecast over on Golden Snowball a little bit harder on me.

Now that is out of the way, here are the snowfall totals for Reno, NV and Salt Lake City, UT for Wednesday and Thursday.

Reno: 2.3
Salt Lake City: 3.7

Bull’s Eye: Reno and Salt Lake City total 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target: Only Reno totals 2-4 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss: Reno’s snowfall total is outside of the 2-4 inch range.

Both were in range, so that is a Bull’s Eye. Interesting that both were 0.3 inches away from the end points of the range.

Here are the updated results for the season, combined with the Golden Snowball site.

A pretty solid week for me, as the GSB forecast was On Target, and I’m back to the 1.00 average. That is exactly the goal set at the beginning of the season. We’ve reached the halfway point for the forecasts, and I’d like to have it all wrapped up at the end of March.

Now on to this forecast, which, as mentioned previously, focuses on Montana, Utah and Wyoming. I’ll be using Salt Lake City, Billings and Cheyenne from each of their respective states. The snow storm currently out west will be moving east, and as a result, I expect these cities to get 1-4 inches over the next few days.

Bull’s Eye: All 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
On Target: 2 of the 3 cities have 1-4 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 1 or 0 of the 3 cities has 1-4 inches of snow.

Be sure to check out the GSB forecast update as well. Have a great rest of the week everyone!