It’s time for another edition of Shot In The Dark Forecasts! I wouldn’t be doing Anchorage any justice if I didn’t feature them at least once this season. So for February, they get the spotlight to themselves in this SITD forecast. Before we get to that, how did the January forecast fare?

I believed January would be below average for five chosen cities. If that held true, it’d be a Bull’s Eye forecast. Another way to get the Bull’s Eye was if one of the five was below average by a foot or more. 3 or 4 of the cities were below average, with none being a foot or below average, then the forecast was On Target. Below are the totals for those five cities and their averages in parenthesis.

Ann Arbor, MI: 16.8 (13.4)
Colorado Springs, CO: 0.5 (5.1)
Erie, PA: 26.5 (29.8)
South Bend, IN: 35.0 (20.6)
Worcester, MA: 13.6 (17.1)

3 out of the 5 were below average. None of them were lower by a foot or more, so it’s On Target. Of the group, South Bend was the big winner, beating average by more than 14 inches!

So let’s take a look at the standings. Remember that for SITD, an On Target forecast is worth 2 points.

If this was a Bull’s Eye, I’d be right at 1.00. So I am just a bit short with a little more than half of the forecasts to go.

Now for this edition’s forecast, which features only Anchorage, AK. In an average season, Anchorage will get 11 inches in February. But as we the stats show, this has been anything but average for Anchorage. In fact, they’re already almost 30 inches above average for the entire season! I think this above average pattern will continue for them.

Bull’s Eye Anchorage’s February total will be at least triple average for the month.
On Target Anchorage’s February total will be at least double average for the month.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!

It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. But before the newest outlook is revealed, I have to show how the previous one fared.

The previous prediction involved Seattle, WA, Spokane, WA, Boise, ID and Billings, MT. All four falling in the 6-10 inch range for 2 days would be a Bull’s Eye. 2 or 3 of them in range would be good enough for On Target. Let’s check the totals!

Seattle: 7.1
Spokane: 9.7
Boise: 4.8
Billings: 9.7

For those who are curious, Seattle (6.8 on 1/18) and Billings (9.6 on 1/19) broke snowfall records for the given day while Spokane (6.0 on 1/19) tied theirs.

Boise was the only one that did not fall in range, so that is an On Target prediction!

Still a bit below the 1.00 goal, but at least the average is moving in the right direction…for now. This is the fourth PBR forecast, so after this one there will be 6 remaining. On the SITD side, there will be 3 more monthly outlooks. So overall, we’re basically 40% done with this season’s forecasts.

Now it’s time for this edition’s forecast, featuring Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Minneapolis, MN, Detroit, MI and South Bend, IN.

Bull’s Eye All five of the selected cities will total 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday.
On Target 3 or 4 of the selected cities will total 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

It’s that time again! I try to keep the regions varied, at least for the first few forecasts, and with snow making its way through the Northwest U.S. I figured it’s the perfect time for that region to join the forecast party.

Before we get into that, here’s a look at how the last forecast went.

Five cities, Cincinnati, OH, Cleveland, OH, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, and Detroit, MI, were chosen. If all five had snowfall totals between 1-6 inches for Thursday and Friday, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Let’s see how they stacked up:

Cincinnati: 1.0
Cleveland: 4.6
Chicago: 4.9
Indianapolis: 1.7
Detroit: 1.6

I probably could have toned the range down a bit, but this was about as good of a forecast as I can remember. All five were in range, so that’s a Bull’s Eye!

Not where I want to be yet, but it’s still progress. With that in mind, here’s the next forecast, featuring Seattle, WA, Spokane, WA, Boise, ID and Billings, MT.

Bull’s Eye All four of the selected cities will total 6-10 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
On Target 2 or 3 of the selected cities will total 6-10 inches of snow for Wednesday and Thursday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great rest of the week all!

Anyone remember the last PBR forecast? It was done in mid December. It’s been far too long, hasn’t it?

In that December forecast, I believed at least 3 of the 6 chosen cities (Flagstaff, AZ, Albuquerque, NM, Pueblo, CO, Amarillo, TX Guymon, OK and Wichita, KS) would get at least 6 inches of snow between the 19th and 21st. Here are the snowfall totals for each city:

Flagstaff: 0.0
Albuquerque: 1.4
Pueblo: 10.6
Amarillo: 0.6
Guymon: 7.0
Wichita: Trace

2 out of the 6 met the 6 inch mark, so this goes as a Complete Miss.

Nothing to show, as far as points go. With that in mind, here’s the new forecast, which is for Cincinnati, OH, Cleveland, OH, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, and Detroit, MI.

Bull’s Eye All five selected cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
On Target A majority of the selected cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer selected cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.

Have a great end to the work week, and maybe it won’t be so long before the next forecast!

What’s always late and rarely great? Shot In The Dark Forecasts of course! Time to check out just how bad December’s outlook was and try to do better with January’s.

For December, a Bull’s Eye 3 of the selected Colorado cities would double their snow total. If at least 1 of them got there, it’s On Target. Here are the cities chosen, with the snowfall amount they had at the time of the forecast.

Denver: 22.2
Fort Collins: 25.0
Lakewood: 28.8

Here’s how the stood at the end of December:

Denver: 29.5
Fort Collins: 34.2
Lakewood: 42.4

Lakewood got almost half of the mark, and they were the closest ones. No points for me in December. What is it with me and over estimating the Colorado cities? Did that last year, did it again this year.

With that out of the way, time for the January outlook.

Thought I’d do something a little bit different and go with cities 6-10 in the latest standings. That’s Worcester, MA, Colorado Springs, CO, Erie, PA, Ann Arbor, MI and South Bend, IN. It’s been a slow go for snow this winter, and it just feels like it’ll continue.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is a foot or more below average, snowfall for January.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for January.
Complete Miss: A majority of the cities have average or above snowfall for January.

Have a great January everyone!

Before we get to the forecast, a quick reminder on what the PBR Forecast is. Basically, it involves a short term forecast for some part of the U.S. In some cases, it is one state, while in others it could involve several. It just depends on how widespread a storm could be. Typically, what I feel will happen will go under the On Target category. Bull’s Eye typically has something extra. Before the next PBR Forecast, I will take a look at how the previous forecast fared.

Kicking off this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts, we have a potentially large storm in store for the southwestern U.S. up to the plains. So, this forecast may be one of the more widespread ones that I have done as it involves Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. With 6 states total, I’ve decided to take one city from each (Flagstaff, Albuquerque, Pueblo, Amarillo, Guymon and Wichita). I’m expecting at least 6 inches of snow for most.

Bull’s Eye: All cities listed have at least 6 inches of snow, with one getting at least a foot.
On Target: 3 or more of the cities listed have at least 6 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer cities have 6 or more inches of snow.

Have a great week everyone, and if you’re in the storm’s path, be careful out there!

It’s that time again! Well, actually, that time was a few days ago, but after a bit of a delay, I’m finally ready for the snow season. With that comes the forecasts. First a bit of a reminder of what exactly is going on for those new to this, along with a few changes.

At times throughout the season, I will prepare different types of forecasts. There will be 10 short term forecasts (about 2-3 days) called Point Blank Range and 5 long term (about a month) called Shot In The Dark. The idea behind each forecast is to be a bit different than you’d see in most forecasts on TV. What does that mean? No waffle words like “chance of” or “likely” when I make a forecast, it will be definitive. Also, at the beginning of each following forecast, I will look back and see how the forecast fared. Each forecast will fall into one of three categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss.

Now on to the changes for this season. First off, I will not be doing a season outlook. Instead, I will be doing a long term forecast for 5 months, December through April. Secondly, the two sites, Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe, will be kept separate. In previous years, I’d try to find something that would work for both New York State and elsewhere at the same time. More often than not, I’d only be able to have a snow forecast for one area. So this gives me more flexibility. If I need to make a GSB forecast on a Tuesday and a GSG forecast on a Friday, or if it’s weeks in between, then that would work this year. And finally, I’m doubling the points for the Shot In The Dark forecasts. So now it’s 4 points for a Bull’s Eye, 2 for On Target and 0 for a Complete Miss. The goal for the end of the season will remain the same: 1.00 average or better (it worked out that even with this change my forecasts last season didn’t mean the 1.00 mark, so that is the goal again this season).

Now that’s out of the way, it’s time for the first Shot In The Dark Forecast of the season!

Remember how the Colorado cities where nowhere to be found in the top 10 last season? So far this season, they are make up for that as three (Fort Collins, Lakewood and Denver) are currently in the top 5! This is more like what we were expecting from them! They’re off to a great start, but this is just the beginning. Can their snowfall totals double by the end of the month?

Bull’s Eye: Fort Collins, Lakewood and Denver will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.
On Target: One or two will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: None will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.

Doubling snowfall totals would put Fort Collins at 57.6, Lakewood at 50.0 and Denver at 44.4.

Have a great week everyone!

Yes, I know, it’s the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That’s why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!

First up is the April forecast, which involved the ranking of the Top 5. Below is their ranking, with my predicted placement in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)

Bull’s Eye: All of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
On Target: Three of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the Top 5 will be in the same positions at the end of April.

Syracuse and Rochester were the only ones that ended up in the positions that the were when the forecast was made. As a result, this was a Complete Miss.

Finally, it’s the Winter outlook, which was made at the beginning of January. It involved the Colorado cities and the Top 10. Here is a look at the final Top 10, set on May 15th.

1. Syracuse, NY
2. Rochester, NY
3. Buffalo, NY
4. Erie, PA
5. South Bend, IN
6. St. Paul, MN
7. Worcester, MA
8. Green Bay, WI
9. Minneapolis, MN
10. Hartford, CT

Bull’s Eye: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 5 in mid May.
On Target: At least one major Colorado city will be in the top 10 in mid May.
Complete Miss: All major Colorado cities are out of the top 10 in mid May.

None of the Colorado cities are in the Top 10, so this is a Complete Miss. The highest placed Colorado city ended up being Lakewood, finishing 48th, a long ways away from the Top 10.

Here are the final results, including both GSB and GSG.

Unfortunately, these two Complete Miss forecasts meant I could not reach my 1.00 goal. The end of season mark is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull’s Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull’s Eyes and two were Complete Misses.

So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.

Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I’d like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I’ll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it’ll be here next season, if not, then it won’t. I don’t want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.

Enjoy the off season everyone!

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average for three Colorado cities. Below are the snowfall totals for them with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Colorado Springs: 3.1 (9.4)
Denver: 2.5 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)

Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.

That did not work well at all. Here are the updated standings, including both GSB and GSG.

With both GSB and GSG forecasts falling into the Complete Miss range, my average has dropped below the 1.00 goal set before the season. Of the four remaining forecasts in progress, it looks like I’ll need at least 2 Bull’s Eye forecasts to get to the 1.00 mark.

With that in mind, here’s an update on the April outlook. I had set the Bull’s Eye as all of the top 5 holding their positions, while 3 out of the 5 would be On Target. Below are the top 5, as of the April 5th update by Pat, with where they were when the forecast was made in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)

At the moment, this would be a Complete Miss. Syracuse and Rochester are pretty much locked in at 1 and 2, so it would take some shuffling around with the other 3 to get me to at least On Target.

Hey, have a great week everyone!