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With the first month almost wrapped up in the Fantasy Snowfall contest, here’s another update. As a reminder, sleepers are in italics.

GSG Fantasy Snowfall 2013 January Update
Pat Steve
59.90 47.00
Starters (Full Credit)
Buffalo, NY 4.4 Anchorage, AK 10.3
Erie, PA 25.7 Madison, WI 2.0
Spokane, WA 12.3 Rochester, NY 10.3
Syracuse, NY 10.5 Salt Lake City, UT 10.5
Pueblo, CO 1.0 South Bend, IN 7.7
Total 53.9 Total 40.8
Bench (Half Credit)
Fort Collins, CO 0.5 Cleveland, OH 4.6
Green Bay, WI 3.3 Denver, CO 1.4
St. Paul, MN 1.4 Des Moines, IA 1.1
Worcester, MA 5.7 Minneapolis, MN 1.6
Newark, NJ 1.1 Boston, MA 3.7
Total 6.00 Total 6.20

The game changing performance right now is Erie, PA with over 2 feet of snow this month. That changed what has been a close race into what appears to be a blow out for Pat. Of course, there still is over 3 months left in the contest, and with each of us needing to start and bench each city at least once, things could get interesting through the season. The one thing going for me? My sleepers are outperforming Pat’s. I might need to activate my “2 sleeper” option in February.

Speaking of February, the next update will be then, showing the final results for the month and the new lineups for both Pat and myself.

With the first 2 weeks almost wrapped up in the Fantasy Snowfall contest, I thought I’d give a quick look at the results so far. Totals are through 1/12/12 and sleepers are in italics.

GSG Fantasy Snowfall 2013 January Update
Pat Steve
18.00 16.35
Starters (Full Credit)
Buffalo, NY 1.0 Anchorage, AK 0.7
Erie, PA 1.0 Madison, WI 0.0
Spokane, WA 11.0 Rochester, NY 3.9
Syracuse, NY 4.1 Salt Lake City, UT 10.4
Pueblo, CO 0.0 South Bend, IN 0.1
Total 17.1 Total 15.1
Bench (Half Credit)
Fort Collins, CO 0.5 Cleveland, OH 0.0
Green Bay, WI 0.2 Denver, CO 1.4
St. Paul, MN 0.9 Des Moines, IA 0.1
Worcester, MA 0.2 Minneapolis, MN 1.0
Newark, NJ 0.0 Boston, MA 0.0
Total 0.90 Total 1.25

So far this month, Pat has played this as well as he could: the four regular starters all have more snowfall than his four regular bench. On the other hand, I have two on the bench with more snow than two of my starters. So I am not at the maximum I could have had up to this point. For what’s it’s worth, I’d still be trailing, but not by as much. Also of note, South Bend has the most of the four sleepers with 0.1.

The first quarter warps up at the end of the month. By which time Pat and I will have our starting line ups for February all set.

Happy New Year everyone!

To celebrate the start of 2013, Pat and I thought it would be fun to do a fantasy snowfall competition (with inspiration from weather.com). For this year, it will be between the two of us, but we hope that in the future we can expand. We have a few ideas for that in mind, but for now welcome to Golden Snow Globe’s Fantasy Snowfall 2013!

Here’s how it works for this year. A few days ago Pat and I drafted 10 cities. Before the start of each month, we have to decide which 5 we want to be our starters, and which 5 to be on the bench. Starters get full credit, while bench are half. The team with the most snowfall at the end of April wins!

But of course, there is a catch. We must start all 10 cities at least once, and each city must be on the bench at least once. In addition, we each have 2 sleepers. These are cities that as of the 12/28 update were outside the top 25. The sleepers must each be used twice. We each can have both sleepers as starters in one month (but not necessarily the same month), in which case, 6 starters would be allowed.

So, without further ado, here are the teams for 2013! Note: This month’s starters are in bold.

GSG Fantasy Snowfall 2013 Teams
Pat Steve
Sleepers
Newark, NJ Boston, MA
Pueblo, CO South Bend, IN
Buffalo, NY Anchorage, AK
Erie, PA Cleveland, OH
Fort Collins, CO Denver, CO
Green Bay, WI Des Moines, IA
Spokane, WA Madison, WI
St. Paul, MN Minneapolis, MN
Syracuse, NY Rochester, NY
Worcester, MA Salt Lake City, UT

Again, we’re just basically playing around with this for 2013. Whether we keep all these rules (or add new ones) in the future is to be determined. Though, the more people/teams we have in the future the less cities will be on a team.

I’ll try to do updates twice a month. We hope you enjoy following along!

By the way, what does your calendar say? If it’s 2012, it’s time to get a new one! So why not check some out at buywallcalendars.com? You’ll get a good deal and help support the site. Thanks! :)

With the national snowfall contest just about to wrap up, I thought I’d follow up on an earlier post comparing this season’s Anchorage totals to last season’s Syracuse numbers.

Up first, snowfall for the season, as of May 11th.

2011-12 Anchorage: 134.5
2010-11 Syracuse: 179.0

Syracuse had 34.5 inches more snow last season than Anchorage does this season. But we can’t just stop the comparison there…how much higher than average are these totals?

2011-12 Anchorage: 60.1 (74.4 average)
2010-11 Syracuse: 55.2 (123.8 average)

When compared to their respective averages, Anchorage comes out on top by less than half a foot! Not only that, but this season is Anchorage’s snowiest season on record (since 1917)! For Syracuse, the 179.0 mark was their 4th snowiest since 1951.

In the end, both cities had some impressive totals in their respective seasons. Who knows what we’re in store for next season…and maybe some other city will steal the show!

Hey, enjoy these last few days of the contest and have a great off season!

With this season’s Golden Snowball contest just about over, I figured this would be the best time to recap the forecasts. There are still 2 forecasts left to show results, so let’s get to it!

The first one was a PBR and goes back to the middle of March and involved Flagstaff, AZ. If they totaled at least 16 inches of snow March 18th and 19th, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 12 to 16 inches would be On Target. Here are the totals for each day:

March 18: 19.5
March 19: 6.9

March 18th by itself was enough to breakthrough the threshold, so that is a Bull’s Eye! By the way, the 19.5 recorded for the date crushed their old record of 8.7 set in 1982.

Now on to the final forecast of the season: the March SITD. That one was for 5 cities in the northeast: Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA and Washington, DC. If all five had below average snowfall in March, that would be a Bull’s Eye. A majority under average would be on target. Here are the respective cities’ totals, with averages in parenthesis:

Baltimore, MD: 0.0 (1.9)
Boston, MA: 0.6 (7.8)
New York, NY: 0.0 (3.7)
Philadelphia, PA: 0.0 (2.5)
Washington: DC: 0.0 (1.3)

All were below average, (in fact, all but Boston had no snowfall), so this was a Bull’s Eye forecast, the first of the season for the SITD outlooks.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.88
SITD 1 2 1 8
PBR 2 2 4 6
Total 3 4 5 14

The average took a big jump as a result of these results, but it was not enough. The final average is 0.88, below the 1.00 goal at the end of the season. That means next season’s goal will remain at 1.00. It’s the PBR forecasts that did me in this time, with as many Complete Miss forecasts as the other two categories combined.

Just a few more weeks remain in the Golden Snow Globe contest. Enjoy these last few weeks everyone!

Before I get into this forecast, one quick announcement. I have decided to reduce this season’s forecasts to 8 PBR and 4 SITD forecasts. That means this will be the last PBR and the March outlook is the last SITD.

With that out of the way, let’s check how the last forecast fared, which involved Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY and Salt Lake City, UT. That prediction had a 2 day range from a trace to 3 inches for March 6th and 7th. If all 5 were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target would be a majority. Here are the totals:

Billings, MT: 1.2
Boise, ID: 0.3
Denver, CO: Trace
Cheyenne, WY: None
Salt Lake City, UT: 2.0

Four out of five were in range, so that is On Target!

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.62
SITD 0 2 1 4
PBR 1 2 4 4
Total 1 4 5 8

That moves the average up slightly, but still well below the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the season. In fact, even if both this and the March SITD forecasts are Bull’s Eye results, I will fall below the threshold.

Now on to the final forecast of the season, which focuses on Flagstaff, AZ. While not quite big enough to be in the GSG standings, they do get a good amount of snow, and I wanted to include them in some capacity. So, here it is…

Bull’s Eye Flagstaff will have at least 16 inches of snow by the end of Monday.
On Target Flagstaff will have at least a foot of snow by the end of Monday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Enjoy your St. Patrick’s Day weekend everyone!

3 SITD forecasts down, 2 to go. The March outlook involves the I-95 corridor, but we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at the February prediction.

I believed that Anchorage, AK would have well above average snowfall in February. In fact, Anchorage having triple it’s average was a Bull’s Eye while doubling average was On Target.

Anchorage’s February 2012 snowfall total: 27.8
Anchorage’s February average snowfall: 10.9

Anchorage did not quite get to triple the snowfall average, so it’s an On Target prediction.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.58
SITD 0 2 1 4
PBR 1 1 4 3
Total 1 3 5 7

That moves the average slightly up to 0.58, still well below the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the season.

Now it’s time for the March outlook, featuring Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA and Washington, DC.

Bull’s Eye All five selected cities will have below average snowfall in March.
On Target A majority of the cities will have below average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great March everyone!

With my plan to get to 9 or 10 PBR forecasts done by the end of the month, I’ll occasionally have to take a couple of “little snow” forecasts. While not ideal, I’d rather do that now than have to do something else in April. Besides, as long as I’m predicting SOME snow, it’s still good, right? ;)

Before I get into the next forecast though, I have to look back at the previous one which involved Minneapolis, MN, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND, Aberdeen, SD and Pierre, SD. If at least one of them totaled a foot or more snow from the 28th to the 29th, that would be a Bull’s Eye. If all of them had at least 6 inches of snow, but none were over a foot, that’s On Target. Here are the totals:

Minneapolis, MN: 2.8
Bismarck, ND: 1.5
Fargo, ND: 4.4
Aberdeen, SD: 7.7
Pierre, SD: 5.5

I’m on quite the losing trend now. With four out of the five having less than 6 inches of snow, this is my 3rd straight Complete Miss.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.50
SITD 0 1 1 2
PBR 1 1 4 3
Total 1 2 5 5

With that, I fall to half of the goal. There are 4 more PBR and 2 more SITD forecasts left to be made. So I need to have a great ending stretch to reach the goal.

Let’s see if this forecast will get me back in the right direction. It features Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY and Salt Lake City, UT.

Bull’s Eye All five cities will have snowfall totals between a trace and 3 inches by the end of Wednesday.
On Target A majority of the cities will have snowfall totals between a trace and 3 inches by the end of Wednesday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great week everyone!

With Leap Day right around the corner, I figured I’d try to celebrate the extra day with a bang. Mother nature is helping out a bit, and I’ll get to that later.

First, it’s a check on how the last forecast fared. That outlook called for snowfall in the 2-6 inch range over the extended weekend for the selected cities. If all five were in range: Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4: On Target. Here are those totals:

Lexington, KY: None
Charleston, WV: Trace.
Charlottesville, VA: 5.8
Washington, DC: Trace
Baltimore, MD: None

Um…woops. Only Charlottesville was in range, so that’s a Complete Miss, the 2nd straight one for me.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.56
SITD 0 1 1 2
PBR 1 1 3 3
Total 1 2 4 5

Am I really going to do a lot better with long range forecasts than the short term ones? Seems that way. That forecast was also the halfway point for the PBR, just 5 remain. I have my work cut out for me if I’m going to hit the 1.00 average.

So let’s get to it with the next forecast! This one features Minneapolis, MN, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND, Aberdeen, SD and Pierre, SD.

Bull’s Eye At least one of the five will have a foot or more snow by the end of Wednesday.
On Target All five chosen cities will have at least 6 inches of snow by the end of Wednesday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great week everyone. And if you’re in the snow storm’s path, be careful out there!

It has been awhile since I’ve done a PBR forecast on the site, and it’s about time I fixed that. Before that, here are a couple of notes.

First off,I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was pretty much a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. There are 7 weekends between now and April, so if I plan on a forecast for each week, then I’ll be in good shape.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that said, let’s take a look back at the last forecast, done for January 27th and 28th. I believed that snowfall would be in the 1-3 range for Madison, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Minneapolis, MN, Detroit, MI and South Bend, IN. If all five were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye while a majority would be On Target. Here are the snowfall totals.

Madison: 0.5
Milwaukee: 0.6
Minneapolis: 0.5
Detroit: 1.3
South Bend: 0.4

Only Detroit was in range, so that is a Complete Miss.

GSG Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.63
SITD 0 1 1 2
PBR 1 1 2 3
Total 1 2 3 5

With that out of the way, it’s time for this edition. The featured cities are Lexington, KY, Charleston, WV, Charlottesville, VA, Washington, DC and Baltimore MD.

Bull’s Eye All five of the selected cities will total 2-6 inches of snow for the 3 day weekend.
On Target 3 or 4 of the selected cities will total 2-6 inches of snow for the 3 day weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!