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Snow…in Arizona?!

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 8, 2009
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , .

Yes, there was snow in Arizona, and I do mean the state. To be fair, the bulk of the storm was in the northern portion of the state, where they do see snow, just not like this. The National Weather Service is reporting 20.1 inches fell in Flagstaff yesterday, shattering the day’s previous record of 5 inches set in 1956. As it turns out, Flagstaff’s average snowfall for this point into the season is 20.2 inches. Flagstaff’s total for the season is now 24 inches. For those of you wondering, Flagstaff’s population is estimated as 60,000, well below the 100,000 threshold for the Golden Snow Globe contest.

One area that typically does not see snow is the southern part of Arizona. However, when I got home from work, I noticed that Tuscon (or at least the county Tuscon is in, Pima County) was under a winter storm warning. It appears that most of the snow was only on the mountain tops and not any official reporting stations. Apparently the big news for the area was wind and rain. Tuscon’s Airport recorded a gust of over 40 MPH. Some rain gauges measured over an inch of rain in a 24 hour period. Impressive for any area, but especially for a region that’s known for dry conditions. Source of this data is KOLD in Tuscon, which was found through a Google News search.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 2 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 7, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

Better late than never, here are the results to my 2nd set of forecasts.

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that at least one of the New York City reporting stations would have more precipitation than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities on either Wednesday or Thursday. The chart below compares the NYC reporting station with the most precipitation to the GSB city with the least precipitation. All stats come from the National Weather Service.

New York State Precipitation
Day Most Precipitation in NYC Least Precipitation among GSB cities
Days when NYC had more precipitation: 2
Wednesday 0.45 (Central Park) 0.07 (Binghamton)
Thursday 0.73 (Central Park) 0.04 (Syracuse)

That forecast proved to be correct. As it turned out, several GSB cities had less precipitation than the NYC reporting stations on both days. Only Albany (0.80 Thursday) and Buffalo (0.52 Wednesday) had more than Central Park. I find it interesting that Central Park had the most precipitation in the NYC area on Wednesday and Thursday.

For the World forecast, the prediction was that at least one of the four major cities in Michigan (Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing) would receive an inch or more of snow. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for each city.

Michigan Snowfall
Day Detroit Flint Grand Rapids Lansing
Cities with an inch of snow or more: 1
Wednesday None None None None
Thursday None 0.3 2.4 0.2

That forecast also turned out to be true. I was a little nervous about it after Wednesday’s no show of snow. But Thursday saved the forecast as Grand Rapids met the target, receiving over 2 inches of snow.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 75%
NYS 1-1
World 2-0
Overall 3-1

Both forecasts held up, and as a result, my percentage has increased to 75%. It’s still very early in the season, though. In fact, Calendar Winter does not begin for another few weeks. When we get into the bulk of Winter, the Golden SnowCast may actually be able to have forecasts with more snow in them. Should be fun to see how the forecasts turn out when that time comes.

Have a great week everyone!

Temperature Data and Winter Outlook video

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 4, 2009
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

Golden SnowCast Forecast 2 results to come later, but I saw this yesterday and figured it would be worth showing.

Some of the Penn State Meteorology Department staff do a show called Weather World. This is the same show that gave me the idea to do the Golden SnowCast. One segment is called WxYz (WeatherWhys) with Dr. Jon Nese. On December 2nd, Nese took a look at temperature data from October and November, and noted some interesting findings. He also then compared data from El Nino winters to the Climate Prediction Center’s winter outlook. To see the segment, go to Weather World on the Web and click on the WxYz graphic. In case the WxYz segment mentioned is replaced with a new one between now and whenever you are reading this, Nese keeps an archive of the year’s WxYz segments at this page and look for the December 2nd edition when it is posted. I’m not sure if he takes down previous year’s segments, or if 2009 is simply the first year of WxYz, so I suggest watching it soon.

For those of you wondering, the Sure Bets segment is the inspiration for the Golden SnowCast.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 2

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 30, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

This forecast is up a little bit earlier than I anticipated. That’s mainly due to interesting weather happening before the weekend and I want to get these forecasts up a few days in advance of the events.

For the New York State forecast, we’re getting New York City into the mix with the Golden Snowball cities.

At least one Golden Snowball city will receive less precipitation than one of the New York City reporting stations on either Wednesday or Thursday.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be soggy for the state, but especially for NYC. For those of you wondering, there are three NYC reporting stations that will be used in verifying the forecast: Central Park, LaGuardia Airport and JFK Airport. If any one of them receive more precipitation than any one of the GSB cities, on either Wednesday or Thursday, this forecast will be correct.

For the world forecast, I’m looking at Michigan for some snow.

At least one of Michigan’s major cities will have an inch or more of snowfall on Wednesday or Thursday.

Looks to be an interesting part of the week for the Michigan area, though I imagine an inch of snow is nothing to be too worked up about in that region. There are four major reporting areas that will be used for this forecast: Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids and Lansing. For my forecast to be correct, there must be at least an inch of snow measured at one ore more of the four sites.

As said earlier today, have a great week all!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 1 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 30, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that none of the Golden Snowball cities would have measurable snowfall on any day between Friday and Sunday. The table below shows how much snow each city had as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Snowfall
Day Albany Binghamton Buffalo Rochester Syracuse
Cities with no measurable snow each day: 4
Friday Trace 0.8 None None Trace
Saturday None Trace None None None
Sunday None None None None None

That forecast proved to be wrong. It was Binghamton that spoiled the forecast, and it didn’t take very long for that to happen. The other cities did their part. Close, but not close enough.

For the World pick, I said that at least 2 of the 4 major cities in Idaho, Montana and Utah would be within 5 degrees of their average highs and lows on Friday. The table below shows what the results are as reported by the National Weather Service and the Brigham Young University weather station.

Mountain West Friday Temperatures
City Average High/Low Recorded High/Low
Cities within 5 degrees of average highs and lows: 2
Billings, MT 38/22 52/35
Boise, ID 42/29 39/30
Provo, UT 43/27 63/26
Salt Lake City, UT 43/27 39/23

That forecast turned out to be correct, barely. Interesting to note that the two that were not within 5 degrees were well above their average highs with Billings almost 15 over and Provo 20 above average.

As a side note, I try to use National Weather Service data when available. In the case of Provo, I used The Weather Channel to find the average temperatures and the BYU station for the actual temperatures as there is not an official NWS station in Provo. In some cases (usually with unofficial stations such as BYU’s), a “day” can have different start times. For example, the BYU page lists the day as 24 hours between 5pm local time while stats kept at Penn State’s weather station for State College, PA (also unofficial) are 24 hours between 7am EST/8am EDT. NWS information is updated a few times a day, with data available sometime after midnight for the previous day. It’s this data that I’ll typically use when verifying the accuracy of my forecasts if available for the given city.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 50%
NYS 0-1
World 1-0
Overall 1-1

So, I’m struggling out of the gate. To gain some perspective on this, I’d need to get the next 8 straight forecasts correct to get to my goal of 90%. Only 2 predictions are done at a time though, so when the next batch of forecasts come out, I’ll be shooting to reach 75% overall. I expect to have that forecast done by midweek.

Have a great week everyone.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 1

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 25, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , , .

Some people dream of a white Christmas, but for me, it just wouldn’t feel right if I didn’t have a white Thanksgiving weekend. So, for the New York State forecast, we’re looking into snow for the weekend.

None of the five Golden Snowball Cities will receive measurable snowfall on any day from Friday through Sunday.

There will be snow, however it does not appear to be much in the way of precipitation. Also, some of the precip will be rain, which means less snow falling. So, for my forecast to be correct, all five of Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse must not gain a tenth of an inch or more on any day this weekend.

For the World forecast, we’re moving to the Mountain West, in particular, Idaho, Montana and Utah, for some temperature forecasts.

At least half of the major cities in Idaho, Montana and Utah will be within 5 degrees of normal highs and lows on Friday.

Looks to be an about average day on Friday for that region. For those wondering, I am using Boise, ID, Billings, MT and Salt Lake City and Provo, UT as the major cities in the area. For my forecast to be right, at least 2 of them must be within 5 degrees of both their average high and low temperatures.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

Introduction to The Golden SnowCast

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on November 20, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

I thought it would be fun to have some forecasts on here throughout the season.  This should be something different than most forecasts done elsewhere.  I say “most” because the idea came from a segment of a show some of the Penn State Department of Meteorology staff does.  First off, there will not be any waffle words like “chance” or “possibility” and such.  So these forecasts are going to have some certainty to them.  In doing so, the forecasts will tend to be more of general statements rather than an attempt at pinpoint accuracy. Also, I’m going to keep track of how the forecasts are going.  The goal is 90% accuracy, but we’ll see what happens.  There will be 2 forecasts: one for somewhere in New York State and one for somewhere else in the world. I’ll try to have forecasts at least every other week during the winter season, with the first forecast to be for the Thanksgiving weekend, provided there are events to forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone.