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Golden SnowCast Forecast 6 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on January 5, 2010
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , .

Happy 2010 everyone! By now, I should be one of the last people to wish you all a Happy New Year.

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that on New Year’s Eve, at least 1 of the three New York City reporting stations would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average and low temperatures above average. The table below shows the recorded temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

New York City Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High/Low Recorded High/Low
Sites with above average lows and highs within 5 degrees of average: 1
Central Park 39/27 34/33
JFK Airport 40/27 33/33
La Guardia 40/28 34/34

This one was correct, with not much room to spare. All low temperatures were above average, but only Central Park had a high temperature within 5 degrees of average. It is interesting to me that both JFK and La Guardia had no variability between high and low temperatures throughout the day, and a slight change for Central Park.

For the World Forecast, I believed a majority of the other 9 biggest US cities would have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on New Year’s Eve. The table below shows the recorded high temperatures according to the National Weather Service.

US High Temperatures on New Year’s Eve
City Average High Recorded High
Cities with highs within 5 degrees of average: 6
Los Angeles, CA 66 68
Chicago, IL 30 32
Houston, TX 62 58
Phoenix, AZ 66 64
Philadelphia, PA 40 34
San Antonio, TX 62 76
Dallas, TX 54 46
San Diego, CA 65 66
San Jose, CA 57 62

This one turned out to be correct as well. San Antonio had the biggest margin of the 9, as the high temperature was 14 degrees above average for New Year’s Eve. A few cities had their highs be very close to average as Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix and San Diego were each within 2 degrees. Houston and San Jose were both within 5, making it 6 out of 9 cities within 5 degrees of their average high temperatures.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 75%
NYS 4-2
World 5-1
Overall 9-3

It was another successful forecast and now I am at 75% for the season. This is the same percentage I was at after the 2nd batch of forecasts, when I was 3-1 overall. I still need 18 straight correct forecasts to reach my goal of 90%, but at least now I have some breathing room over 50%.

With many areas receiving snow in the past few weeks, I’m sure some of you have some great snow pictures. Why don’t you send us some? Also, let’s see if you can Stump the Weather Chump.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 6

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 29, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , .

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

New Year’s Eve is Thursday and as usual there will be celebrations galore. Perhaps the most famous of celebrations is in New York City’s Time Square. This week, the Golden Snowball cities will take a back seat to New York City for the New York State forecast.

At least one of the New York City reporting stations will highs within 5 degrees of average and lows above average on Thursday.

There are three National Weather Service reporting stations in the NYC area that will be used for verification: Central Park, La Guardia and JFK airports. If at least one of them has high temperatures with 5 degrees of average (above or below) and warmer than average lows for New Year’s Eve, the forecast will be correct.

For the world forecast, it’s a look at the 9 most populated cities in the US after NYC.

A majority of cities will have high temperatures within 5 degrees of average on Thursday.

This is similar to this week’s NYS forecast, with the exception that low temperatures are not involved here. The nine most populated US cities other than NYC are, in order from largest to smallest, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Dallas, San Diego and San Jose. For the forecast to be correct, nine of these have their high temperatures within 5 degrees of average (high or low) on New Year’s Eve.

Happy New Year! Have a great week.

Golden SnowCast Forecast 5 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 27, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

After last week’s epic failure, it’s time to see if my Christmas forecast was gold, or if it was nothing but coal.

For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Upstate cities will have a white Christmas. My criteria was there must be either snow on the ground, or in the air. The table below shows the snow depth and snowfall amounts for the seven cities.

Upstate New York Snow
City Depth Fall
Cities with a white Christmas: At least 4
Albany 1 Trace
Binghamton 4 Trace
Buffalo Trace None
Glens Falls ?? None
Rochester 1 None
Syracuse 2 Trace
Watertown ?? None

Not exactly the whitest of Christmases for Upstate, but it was good enough for the forecast to be a success. I was unable to find snow depth data on Glens Falls and Watertown, so I couldn’t count them officially as having snow. So, at least 4, and at most 6, of the cities had snow accumulations on the ground. The one that didn’t was Buffalo, of all places, with just a trace.

The World forecast had the same idea: at least half of the major cities in Minnesota and Wisconsin would have a white Christmas. The criteria for white Christmas was the same as the NYS forecast. The table below shows the snow depth and snowfall statistics from the National Weather Service.

Minnesota and Wisconsin Snow
City Depth Fall
Cities with a white Christmas: 4
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 12 2.0
Green Bay, WI 8 0.1
Madison, WI 5 1.0
Milwaukee, WI 2 None

This forecast also proved to be right. All four cities had some snow depth and at least two of them had measurable snow. Snow fall data for Madison and Milwaukee are missing according to NWS. But by using the next day’s amounts, I was able to make an estimate on Friday’s snowfall. I am not sure how accurate those two are, but that is not a big concern (at least for verifying this forecast since all had some snow depth anyway).

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 70%
NYS 3-2
World 4-1
Overall 7-3

A successful week puts me at 70% after 10 forecasts. The only truly awful forecast so far was last week’s World. While there are 2 misses on the NYS side, at least both of those were close. I suppose the other forecasts that could be considered bad were from a few weeks ago with wind gusts for NYS and temperatures for Ontario, Canada. But those were correct and had the right idea. The PA snowfall forecast was just lousy. So, while my percentage is not where I’d like it, I’m still fairly happy with the first 10 forecasts as a whole. I have a feeling I’m going to need some luck with the next 10 forecasts though, but only time will tell how those end up performing.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend everyone!

Can You Stump the Weather Chump?

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 23, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , .

You’ve seen the Golden SnowCast forecasts, but none of them have been for an area where you live. Or, perhaps there is a region out there that you’d like to see a forecast for, and the Golden SnowCast didn’t cover it. After all, there is only one World prediction in each Golden SnowCast forecast, so the chances of coverage for a specific area are quite small for a given time period. Or, maybe the Golden SnowCast did cover your area previously, but now you want more.

Say hello to Stump the Weather Chump. This is your chance to be a part of the forecasts. Just make a reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post stating at least the region for which you would like a forecast. You can also mention what you would like in the forecast as well (temperature, precipitation, etc). I would like to keep the forecasts to 2-3 days ahead. Some forecasts may be general statements (at least half of the cities in the area will have temperatures 5 below average, all cities will have at least an inch of snow, etc) or involve a range (high temperatures 40-45, snow 1-3 inches, etc). That will mostly depend on what’s out there and the details given in the forecast request. So, basically, this will be like the Golden Snowcast forecast, except you control the forecast elements.

As with the Golden Snowcast, I’ll be keeping track of my progress (or lack there of) with this.

This is my Christmas present to you all, so enjoy it! :)

Golden SnowCast Forecast 5

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 22, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , , .

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas. Will that remain a dream, or become reality? It’s the Golden SnowCast Christmas Special!

For the New York State forecast, I’m bringing in all the Upstate New York cities that have NWS stations. This includes all the Golden Snowball cities plus Glens Falls and Watertown.

A majority of the Upstate New York cities will have a white Christmas this year.

For it to be a “white Christmas” there must be either snow on the ground, or snow falling. It is my believe that all the Upstate cities will have a white Christmas, but after last week’s debacle, I’m giving myself some leeway. Part of the issue is that from what I’ve seen, Glens Falls and Watertown don’t report snow depth, which is I will be using to determine if there is snow on the ground this Friday. I can’t really assume there is snow on the ground, so if there isn’t snow falling on Christmas, there would already be 2 cities missed. As long as there are 4 or more Upstate cities that have my definition of a white Christmas, this forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Minnesota and Wisconsin.

At least half of the major cities in Minnesota and Wisconsin will have a white Christmas this year.

Same rules apply here, it must either be snowing or have snow on the ground on Friday to be considered a white Christmas. The major cities are Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN and Green Bay, Madison and Milwaukee, WI. At least two of the four of these cities must meet my standard for White Christmas for the forecast to be correct. Just like with the NYS forecast, my hunch is that all four will meet the requirements, but I’m playing a little bit to the safe side this week.

Have a great week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 4 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 21, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I said that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of their Thursday high temperature. The table below compares Thursday’s highs with Saturday’s and Sunday’s lows as reported by the National Weather Service.

New York State Temperatures
City Thursday’s High Saturday’s Low Sunday’s Low
Cities with weekend low temperatures within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high: 2
Albany 22 8 12
Binghamton 19 15 17
Buffalo 22 19 22
Rochester 22 14 21
Syracuse 22 8 15

This one was a miss due to Saturday’s lows. Albany and Syracuse still were in the colder air early Saturday. That along with Rochester’s 8 degree difference proved to be this forecast’s doom. As a note, all of Saturday’s lows occurred very early in the day, with Albany’s low, the latest of the cities, being reported just after 6:30 am. Three out of the five cities were in range on Sunday, but at that point, the forecast was already a bust.

For the World forecast, I predicted that the four major cities in Pennsylvania will have snowfall range between a trace and a half an inch on Saturday. The table below shows how much snow each city received in the day, and compares it to the record for the day.

December 19th Pennsylvania Snow
City Previous Record Saturday Snowfall
Cities with snowfall between trace and half an inch: 0
Allentown 8.6 (1995) 5.4
Erie Not Available 1.3
Philadelphia 9.2 (1945) 21.0
Pittsburgh 4.8 (1982) 4.7

This one was a complete disaster. On Thursday morning, the idea was the storm would just graze the PA cities. However, on Thursday night/Friday morning (depending on what time zone you are in and what you consider night and morning), I realized that was not to be the case. At least I knew in advance my forecast would be wrong…now if I could only have noticed that before I made that forecast, I would have been in better shape. :lol: As an interesting note, Philadelphia’s December 19th record held for over 60 years was broken on Saturday, shattering it by almost a foot.

So, it was an 0-2 forecast for the week. Last week, I wondered if maybe it was time for a change with the forecasts. This week, I missed both. I guess that answers my question. :lol:

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 62.5%
NYS 2-2
World 3-1
Overall 5-3

Missing both forecasts puts the percentage in the 60s. Now to reach my goal of 90%, I need to get 22 straight predictions (11 weeks worth) correct. As we’re entering the heart of the snow season, I doubt I’ll be able to reach the 90% goal. At this point, I’m just trying to avoid going back to 50% for the season.

Have a great week everyone!

Big Snow Storm on East Coast

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 18, 2009
Posted in: All US Snow Cities. Tagged: , , , .

I’m just going to tap into PSUSyr5 post here and say WOW I’m already dreading updating the stats come the end of this storm. Normally ot takes about 2 hours and that’s not even peaking at states like Virginia and so on. Like Stephen mentioned most likely there will be a change up in the top 10 and big changes below the top 10 with some of the more unlikely US cities being in it :) As I’m typing I think several airports have pretty much closed up shop for the night with many more to follow. There are also Blizzard warnings for several places. Chances are that there will be plenty of cities that will be getting or going above their entire seasonal totals for the year. Hey, Send us any pictures your willing to share with the rest of the US ;)

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As of this moment, the several Atlantic states are under a winter storm warning. This includes most of North Carolina and Virginia, all of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and West Virginia, and portions of Connecticut, New York and *gulp* Pennsylvania. Looks like the World forecast is sure to be a complete bust this week. Let the bashing onslaught begin. :lol: Regardless, it should really jumble up the Top 10 cities as several areas are expected to get about a foot and a half of snow from this system.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 4

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 17, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

It’s starting to look and feel more like winter in New York State. There will be some warm up over the weekend, which brings us to the NYS forecast.

A majority of the Golden Snowball cities will have their Saturday and Sunday low temperatures be within 5 degrees of Thursday’s high.

This is sort of a blind forecast in that obviously Thursday’s high has not yet been set. I’m not sure if this is an indication of how cold Thursday will be, how much warmer the weekend will be, or a combination of both. Either way, for the forecast to be correct, both Saturday and Sunday’s low temperatures must be within 5 degrees of Thursdays high in at least 3 out of the 5 GSB cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at Pennsylvania.

All of the four of Pennsylvania’s major cities will have at least a trace, but no more than a half of an inch of snow on Saturday.

There will be snow in Pennsylvania. However, it looks to be no big deal, at least as far as PA’s major cities go. The four major cities in PA are Allentown, Erie, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. As long as snow accumulation on Saturday falls between a trace and a half of an inch in all four cities, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great end of the work week everyone!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 3 Results

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 14, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that at least half of the Golden Snowball cities would have wind gusts of 30 mph or more on Friday. The table below shows the highest speeds for sustained wind and wind gusts, according to the National Weather Service.

Friday New York State Wind Speeds
City Sustained Wind Wind Gusts
Cities with wind gusts over 30 mph: 5
Albany 30 41
Binghamton 28 37
Buffalo 31 43
Rochester 35 45
Syracuse 37 47

This one proved to be correct. Not only did four out of five GSB cities have wind gusts over 40 mph (well above my mark), all but Binghamton had sustained winds of 30 mph or more on Friday. A bit windier than I anticipated. It does count as a correct forecast, but I would have liked the gust numbers to have been a little closer to 30 mph.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 1 of Ontario, Canada’s big three cities (Hamilton, Ottawa and Toronto) would be at least 5 degrees below average on either Friday or Saturday. The table shows The Weather Channel’s information for the two days.

Ontario, Canada High Temperatures
City Friday Average/Recorded Saturday Average/Recorded
Cities with high temperatures 5 degrees or more below average: 3
Hamilton 34/19 34/34
Ottawa 27/21 26/27
Toronto 36/23 35/39

This one also turned out to be true, and it wasn’t very close on Friday. Interesting to note the nice warm up on Saturday, and Hamilton ended up hitting their average for that day. Again, I wish the numbers would have been a little bit closer to my threshold, as only Ottawa produced a single digit difference.

While it is nice to be right, these forecasts were a bit off the mark. Sure, it still benefited me here, but it still doesn’t quite sit right with me. Of course, it may very well have just been the luck of the draw this weekend. But if this trend continues for the rest of the month, I’ll look into changing things up in 2010.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS 2-1
World 3-0
Overall 5-1

Regardless, I’m now over 80% for the season. Why do I get the feeling that the miss on Buffalo with my first forecast is going to haunt me one way or another?

Have a great week all!

Golden SnowCast Forecast 3

Posted by GSG Fantasy Snowfall on December 9, 2009
Posted in: The Golden SnowCast. Tagged: , , , , .

Unfortunately, this forecast is a bit late. I generally want to get forecasts up for 2 to 3 days in advance. I was ready to do one on Monday for Wednesday and Thursday, but all the good stuff was on Tuesday. So, a decision had to be made…do I make a forecast for 1 day in advance with the knowledge of there being all sorts of winter weather advisories, which would make the forecasts a bit easier (at least in theory), or do I wait a little bit and find something to forecast for the weekend? I chose the second option.

For the New York State forecast, it’s back to just the Golden Snowball cities.

At least half of the Golden Snowball cities will have wind gusts of over 30 mph on Friday.

Looks to be a breezy day on Friday. As a note, there is currently a high wind warning out for a portion of New York State, but that expires on Thursday evening (at least as of the time of this forecast). So I expect breezy conditions to continue into Friday but the wind should not be as strong as on Thursday. For my forecast to be correct, 3 or more of the Golden Snowball cities must have stronger than 30 mph wind gusts.

For the World forecast, it’s a trip up north to Canada. We’re putting the Globe into the Golden Snow Globe, and World into the World forecast all in one step.

At least 1 of the big Ontario cities will have their high temperature 5 degrees or more below average on Friday or Saturday.

This is basically the inverse of my first World forecast. It looks to be a chilly day in Ontario, even for their standards. There are three Ontario metropolitan areas with populations over 500,000: Toronto, Ottawa and Hamilton. If one or more of those has a high temperature that is at least 5 degrees below average on Friday or Saturday, the forecast will be correct. Since the forecast is outside the US borders, verification will come from The Weather Channel.

Have a great weekend all!