Before I get into this forecast, one quick announcement. I have decided to reduce this season’s forecasts to 8 PBR and 4 SITD forecasts. That means this will be the last PBR and the March outlook is the last SITD.

With that out of the way, let’s check how the last forecast fared, which involved Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY and Salt Lake City, UT. That prediction had a 2 day range from a trace to 3 inches for March 6th and 7th. If all 5 were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target would be a majority. Here are the totals:

Billings, MT: 1.2
Boise, ID: 0.3
Denver, CO: Trace
Cheyenne, WY: None
Salt Lake City, UT: 2.0

Four out of five were in range, so that is On Target!

That moves the average up slightly, but still well below the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the season. In fact, even if both this and the March SITD forecasts are Bull’s Eye results, I will fall below the threshold.

Now on to the final forecast of the season, which focuses on Flagstaff, AZ. While not quite big enough to be in the GSG standings, they do get a good amount of snow, and I wanted to include them in some capacity. So, here it is…

Bull’s Eye Flagstaff will have at least 16 inches of snow by the end of Monday.
On Target Flagstaff will have at least a foot of snow by the end of Monday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Enjoy your St. Patrick’s Day weekend everyone!

3 SITD forecasts down, 2 to go. The March outlook involves the I-95 corridor, but we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at the February prediction.

I believed that Anchorage, AK would have well above average snowfall in February. In fact, Anchorage having triple it’s average was a Bull’s Eye while doubling average was On Target.

Anchorage’s February 2012 snowfall total: 27.8
Anchorage’s February average snowfall: 10.9

Anchorage did not quite get to triple the snowfall average, so it’s an On Target prediction.

That moves the average slightly up to 0.58, still well below the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the season.

Now it’s time for the March outlook, featuring Baltimore, MD, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA and Washington, DC.

Bull’s Eye All five selected cities will have below average snowfall in March.
On Target A majority of the cities will have below average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great March everyone!

With my plan to get to 9 or 10 PBR forecasts done by the end of the month, I’ll occasionally have to take a couple of “little snow” forecasts. While not ideal, I’d rather do that now than have to do something else in April. Besides, as long as I’m predicting SOME snow, it’s still good, right?

Before I get into the next forecast though, I have to look back at the previous one which involved Minneapolis, MN, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND, Aberdeen, SD and Pierre, SD. If at least one of them totaled a foot or more snow from the 28th to the 29th, that would be a Bull’s Eye. If all of them had at least 6 inches of snow, but none were over a foot, that’s On Target. Here are the totals:

Minneapolis, MN: 2.8
Bismarck, ND: 1.5
Fargo, ND: 4.4
Aberdeen, SD: 7.7
Pierre, SD: 5.5

I’m on quite the losing trend now. With four out of the five having less than 6 inches of snow, this is my 3rd straight Complete Miss.

With that, I fall to half of the goal. There are 4 more PBR and 2 more SITD forecasts left to be made. So I need to have a great ending stretch to reach the goal.

Let’s see if this forecast will get me back in the right direction. It features Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Denver, CO, Cheyenne, WY and Salt Lake City, UT.

Bull’s Eye All five cities will have snowfall totals between a trace and 3 inches by the end of Wednesday.
On Target A majority of the cities will have snowfall totals between a trace and 3 inches by the end of Wednesday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great week everyone!