Before we get to the forecast, a quick reminder on what the PBR Forecast is. Basically, it involves a short term forecast for some part of the U.S. In some cases, it is one state, while in others it could involve several. It just depends on how widespread a storm could be. Typically, what I feel will happen will go under the On Target category. Bull’s Eye typically has something extra. Before the next PBR Forecast, I will take a look at how the previous forecast fared.

Kicking off this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts, we have a potentially large storm in store for the southwestern U.S. up to the plains. So, this forecast may be one of the more widespread ones that I have done as it involves Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. With 6 states total, I’ve decided to take one city from each (Flagstaff, Albuquerque, Pueblo, Amarillo, Guymon and Wichita). I’m expecting at least 6 inches of snow for most.

Bull’s Eye: All cities listed have at least 6 inches of snow, with one getting at least a foot.
On Target: 3 or more of the cities listed have at least 6 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer cities have 6 or more inches of snow.

Have a great week everyone, and if you’re in the storm’s path, be careful out there!

It’s that time again! Well, actually, that time was a few days ago, but after a bit of a delay, I’m finally ready for the snow season. With that comes the forecasts. First a bit of a reminder of what exactly is going on for those new to this, along with a few changes.

At times throughout the season, I will prepare different types of forecasts. There will be 10 short term forecasts (about 2-3 days) called Point Blank Range and 5 long term (about a month) called Shot In The Dark. The idea behind each forecast is to be a bit different than you’d see in most forecasts on TV. What does that mean? No waffle words like “chance of” or “likely” when I make a forecast, it will be definitive. Also, at the beginning of each following forecast, I will look back and see how the forecast fared. Each forecast will fall into one of three categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss.

Now on to the changes for this season. First off, I will not be doing a season outlook. Instead, I will be doing a long term forecast for 5 months, December through April. Secondly, the two sites, Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe, will be kept separate. In previous years, I’d try to find something that would work for both New York State and elsewhere at the same time. More often than not, I’d only be able to have a snow forecast for one area. So this gives me more flexibility. If I need to make a GSB forecast on a Tuesday and a GSG forecast on a Friday, or if it’s weeks in between, then that would work this year. And finally, I’m doubling the points for the Shot In The Dark forecasts. So now it’s 4 points for a Bull’s Eye, 2 for On Target and 0 for a Complete Miss. The goal for the end of the season will remain the same: 1.00 average or better (it worked out that even with this change my forecasts last season didn’t mean the 1.00 mark, so that is the goal again this season).

Now that’s out of the way, it’s time for the first Shot In The Dark Forecast of the season!

Remember how the Colorado cities where nowhere to be found in the top 10 last season? So far this season, they are make up for that as three (Fort Collins, Lakewood and Denver) are currently in the top 5! This is more like what we were expecting from them! They’re off to a great start, but this is just the beginning. Can their snowfall totals double by the end of the month?

Bull’s Eye: Fort Collins, Lakewood and Denver will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.
On Target: One or two will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: None will double their snowfall totals by the end of the month.

Doubling snowfall totals would put Fort Collins at 57.6, Lakewood at 50.0 and Denver at 44.4.

Have a great week everyone!