Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average for three Colorado cities. Below are the snowfall totals for them with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Colorado Springs: 3.1 (9.4)
Denver: 2.5 (11.7)
Pueblo: 2.7 (6.4)

Bull’s Eye: All three cities have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Two of the cities have above average snowfall for March.
Complete Miss: One or none of the cities have above average snowfall for March.

That did not work well at all. Here are the updated standings, including both GSB and GSG.

With both GSB and GSG forecasts falling into the Complete Miss range, my average has dropped below the 1.00 goal set before the season. Of the four remaining forecasts in progress, it looks like I’ll need at least 2 Bull’s Eye forecasts to get to the 1.00 mark.

With that in mind, here’s an update on the April outlook. I had set the Bull’s Eye as all of the top 5 holding their positions, while 3 out of the 5 would be On Target. Below are the top 5, as of the April 5th update by Pat, with where they were when the forecast was made in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse, NY (1)
2. Rochester, NY (2)
3. Buffalo, NY (4)
4. Erie, PA (5)
5. South Bend, IN (3)

At the moment, this would be a Complete Miss. Syracuse and Rochester are pretty much locked in at 1 and 2, so it would take some shuffling around with the other 3 to get me to at least On Target.

Hey, have a great week everyone!

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures with the 5 biggest U.S. cities. Below are the coldest lows for Los Angeles and Houston, and the warmest highs for Chicago, New York City and Philadelphia.

Los Angeles: 50
Houston: 55
Chicago: 45
New York City: 53
Philadelphia: 52

Bull’s Eye: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia’s warmest highs.
On Target: Los Angeles and Houston’s coldest lows will be warmer than 2 of the three warmest highs.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

This is an On Target forecast. But was it enough to reach the 1.00 goal?

No! It was the Golden Snowball forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. The forecasts here were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!