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Stump the Weather Chump Volume 2

February 12th, 2010

On February 11th, Patrick commented on the Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results post and wanted to know which, if any, Golden Snowball cities would pass Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

Something tells me it won’t be Albany or Binghamton, so those are eliminated right off the bat. So, now it’s down to 3: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.

As of the early morning NWS update, Baltimore has 79.9 inches for the season. It looks like they will stay there by the end of Sunday. Buffalo has 63.1, Rochester has 63.9 and Syracuse has 76.1. I don’t believe either Buffalo or Rochester will get over 16 inches of snow this weekend, so if any of the GSB cities will move ahead of Baltimore, it would be Syracuse which needs 3.8 inches to tie.

If Syracuse is going to get 3.8+ inches, it’ll be from Lake Effect. That will likely occur from Saturday afternoon through Monday. It’s hard to believe that a LES storm lasting that long won’t drop at least 3.8 inches in a given area.

Syracuse will be the only Golden Snowball city to have more snow than Baltimore by the end of Sunday.

If you believe you can Stump The Weather Chump, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is close to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 11 Results

February 11th, 2010

With all the excitement with the snow storms, I forgot to post my results.

For the New York State forecast, I believed that one of the New York City reporting stations would have more total snow for the weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities. The table below shows the snowfall for the NYC reporting stations and the GSB cities on Saturday and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Weekend Snowfall in New York State
City	Saturday	Sunday
GSB Cities with less snowfall than NYC: 5
Central Park	Trace	None
JFK	1.6	None
La Guardia	Trace	None
Albany	None	None
Binghamton	None	0.4
Buffalo	Trace	Trace
Rochester	1.0	Trace
Syracuse	None	Trace

JFK had 1.6 total, and all the GSB cities had an inch or lower. So this forecast was correct. Interesting to note the difference between the 3 NYC stations, Central Park and La Guardia both having a trace while JFK had over an inch. Binghamton was the only city to report measurable snowfall on Sunday.

For the World forecast, I believed that at least 1 of Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC would have at least 10 inches of snow for the weekend. While it may look obvious that this held up, and wasn’t all that close, remember that a portion of the snow fell on Friday. The table below shows the snow totals for Saturday and Sunday for those cities, according to NWS.

Mid-Atlantic Snowfall
City	Saturday	Sunday
Cities with 10 inches or more: 2
Baltimore, MD	17.0	None
Newark, NJ	0.4	None
Philadelphia, PA	22.0	None
Pittsburgh, PA	9.7	Trace
Washington, DC	9.1	None

With Baltimore and Philadelphia over the threshold, this forecast was correct. Pittsburgh and Washington, DC almost broke through the 10 inch plateau as well. All but Newark broke snowfall records for February 6th. In case you were wondering, Newark’s record for February 6th was set in 1978 with 17.9 inches.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region	Record	Percentage
Overall	19-3	86.36%
NYS	9-2	81.82%
World	10-1	90.91%

Another two for two forecast, and I’m inching toward the 90% goal. I have changed the table a little bit, now showing the percentage for each region, in addition to the overall. Forecast 12 should be up tomorrow. Lately, Thursdays and Fridays have been days when I’m less busy, which is why I’ve done forecasts for the weekend, or days close to it, in the recent weeks.

Have a great end of the work week!

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 11

February 4th, 2010

As a reminder for how this works, there are 2 predictions made in each forecast post. One is for anywhere within New York State and one is for somewhere else in the world. There will be no waffle words such as “chance of” or “possibility of” in the forecasts. So the forecasts have a lot of certainty to them. I’ll be keeping track of my progress throughout the season. The goal for the end of the season is 90%.

You can also take part in the forecasts with something we like to call Stump the Weather Chump. Reply to this, or any Golden SnowCast or Stump the Weather Chump post. Include the area and element you would like covered. Try to keep it something for 2-3 days in advance, but I’ll try to be flexible with each request.

For the New York State forecast, it’s a comparison with New York City and the Golden Snowball cities.

New York City will have more snowfall this weekend than at least one of the Golden Snowball cities.

I will be using the totals from Saturday and Sunday for verification. There are three NYC area reporting stations: Central Park, JFK and La Guardia. If one of those has more total snow for the weekend than either Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo Rochester or Syracuse, the forecast will be correct.

For the World forecast, it’s a look to the Mid-Atlantic region.

At least one of the five bigger Mid-Atlantic cities will have 10 inches or more of snow this weekend.

The five cities that will be used for this are Baltimore, MD, Newark, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, Pittsburgh, PA and Washington, DC. If one ore more of those cities total at least 10 inches of snow for Saturday and Sunday, this forecast will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 10 Results

February 3rd, 2010

Just a heads up that the top 10 snowiest cities snow totals have been updated tonight and we’ll try to get a full update in tomorrow

OK, For the New York State prediction, I believed that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have temperatures below freezing on Monday. As a side note, I was torn between “freezing” and “average” and went with freezing to give myself a little more leeway. The table below shows the reported high temperature and the average high temperature for February 1st.

Monday Highs in New York State
City	Reported High	Average High
Cities with high temperatures below freezing: 5
Albany	28	32
Binghamton	27	28
Buffalo	23	31
Rochester	26	31
Syracuse	26	31

As it turns out, it didn’t matter which comparison I used, average or freezing. All five cities were below their average highs, which also means all five were below freezing. Only Binghamton was within one degree of their average high. All the others were at least 4 below average.

For the World forecast, I said that at least 3 of the 5 bigger cities in Iowa and Nebraska would get measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the reported snowfall on Monday and compares it to last year.

Iowa and Nebraska Snowfall
City	Reported Snowfall 2010	Reported Snowfall 2009
Cities with measurable snowfall: At least 4
Cedar Rapids, IA	Missing	None
Davenport, IA	1.5	None
Des Moines, IA	1.4	None
Lincoln, NE	0.2	0.1
Omaha, NE	0.2	Trace

This one proved to be true. Cedar Rapids’ missing data does not come into play as the other 4 received measurable snowfall. Interesting that last year, the Nebraska cities were the only ones to get any snowfall, and this year the Iowa cities that have data are the 2 that report over an inch.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region	Record
Overall Percentage: 85%
NYS	8-2
World	9-1
Overall	17-3

Another 2 for 2 week and the percentage is at 85%. The past 5 weeks ended up being perfect, going 10 for 10 in that time period. The only truly terrible forecast remains the Pennsylvania snow prediction from Week 4. That also happens to be the only miss on the World side. On the NYS side, the 2 misses were from Week 1, as Binghamton ruined the all cities with no measurable snow forecast, and Week 4 with only 2 cities matching the target. The other forecasts were either correct, even if the threshold was a little off the mark.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 10

January 29th, 2010

The end of January is near, with the weekend being the last few days of the month. It’s out with the old and in with the new for the New York State forecast. It involves a temperature outlook for first day of February.

A majority of Golden Snowball cities will have high temperatures below freezing on Monday.

New York State started the work week with temperatures in the 50s, but it’s a much different story this time. The Golden Snowball cities have been in a big chill for the past few days. While that will ease somewhat on Monday, temperatures will still be below freezing. A correct forecast will have at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities below 32 degrees on Monday.

For the World forecast, it’s a look at part of the plain states. But don’t worry, they are trying to redecorate. Poor attempt a humor, my apologies.

At least half of the five biggest cities in Iowa and Nebraska will receive measurable snowfall on Monday.

The five cities used for verification will be Cedar Rapids, Des Moines and Davenport in Iowa and Nebraska’s Lincoln and Omaha. At least 3 of them need to have a tenth of an inch or more of snowfall for the forecast to be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1 Outcome

January 28th, 2010

An Update Coming Soon! We are updating all the city snow totals today so check back later to see who is winning and how your city is doing.

OK, On January 18th, an anonymous poster on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know on what date a majority of the GSB cities would have 4 more inches of snow than the given date. While out of my league, I went for it. My target date was February 1st, but I gave myself a 3 day window. So, if the day when at least 3 of the 5 GSB cities had 4 more inches than on January 19th was between January 29 and February 4th, that would have been a win for me.

Since I’m giving the outcome before that window, and that it’s the only one in Volume 1, it’s pretty clear what the outcome of the forecast is.

Golden Snowball Snow Totals
City	Afternoon January 19	Afternoon January 28
Forecast outcome: STUMPED
Albany	19.8	20.2
Binghamton	39.3	40.5
Buffalo	48.7	59.8
Rochester	47.9	52.5
Syracuse	58.2	63.0

Yes, I missed it by 1 day. That is some of the difficulty with long range forecasts such as this. I’m actually somewhat surprised my range ended up being as close as it was. But close is not good enough here.

Congratulations, anonymous poster, you stumped the weather chump!

Stump the Weather Chump Forecasts
Outcome	Total
Stump Rate: 100%
Stumped	1
Not Stumped	0

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump like the anonymous poster did, leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range (2-3 days preferred), but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests. More details are available here.

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 9 Results

January 27th, 2010

For the New York State forecast, I predicted that a majority of the Golden Snowball cities would have their Monday high temperatures be before 8am. The table below shows the high temperature and when it was recorded by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs in New York State
City	High	Time
Cities with high temperatures before 8am: 3
Albany	56	2:53pm
Binghamton	52	9:41am
Buffalo	49	12:38am
Rochester	56	5:02am
Syracuse	57	7:16am

This prediction was correct. Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse all high high temperatures recorded before 8am. As an interesting note, Buffalo had the earliest recorded and lowest temperature. However, Albany had the latest recorded but was not the highest temperature.

For the World forecast, I predicted that at least 2 of the 3 bigger cities in the Dakotas would have an inch or more of snow from Sunday to Monday. The table below shows the snow fall for each day, as reported by the National Weather Service, and the two day total.

Dakota Snowfall
City	Sunday	Monday	Total
Cities with snow totals of an inch or more: 3
Fargo, ND	Trace	2.2	2.2
Grand Forks, ND	Trace	1.4	1.4
Sioux Falls, SD	0.9	1.0	1.9

This forecast turned out to be correct. I expected there to be more of an split on both days like Sioux Falls had with a tenth of an inch difference between the 2 days. However, Fargo and Grand Forks got over an inch on Monday while receiving no accumulation on Sunday. I admit, I was a little worried about my forecast after Sunday, but it pulled through.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region	Record
Overall Percentage: 83.33%
NYS	7-2
World	8-1
Overall	15-3

Another 2 for 2 week, and the percentage continues to move toward the 90% goal. If that 83.33% looks familiar, it’s because that’s the exact percentage after week 3, when I was 5-1 overall. After reaching 83.33% the first time, the 4th forecast was a complete failure, going 0-2. I will try to avoid that with the next forecast.

Have a great rest of the work week everyone!

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 9

January 22nd, 2010

It’s been a pretty quiet time for snow in the Golden Snowball cities. The weekend appears to be quite warm and dry for this time of year, but then comes Monday. The New York State forecast involves the time in which the high temperature will be recorded.

The high temperature on Monday will occur before 8am for a majority of Golden Snowball cities.

Sunday night into Monday, cold air will take hold of the region. So whatever the high temperature ends up as on Monday will be very early in the day. For the prediction to be correct, the time when the high temperature is recorded must be before 8am Monday in at least 3 of the 5 cities.

For the World forecast, it’s a look into snow for the Dakotas.

At least two out of three reporting stations in North Dakota and South Dakota will have at least an inch of total snow accumulation Sunday and Monday.

The three reporting stations used will be Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota and South Dakota’s Sioux Falls. If at least two of them receive an inch of snow or more from Sunday to Monday, the prediction will be correct.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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Golden SnowCast Forecast 8 Results

January 20th, 2010

For the New York State prediction, it was a 2 for 1 special. I believed a majority of the cities would have above freezing high temperatures and no measurable snowfall on Monday. The table below shows the high temperatures and snowfall for Monday, as reported by the National Weather Service.

Monday Highs and Snowfall in New York State
City	High	Snowfall
Cities with high temperatures above freezing and no measurable snowfall: 4
Albany	41	0.7
Binghamton	37	Trace
Buffalo	36	None
Rochester	37	None
Syracuse	39	Trace

Each of the five cities was above freezing. Only Albany had measurable snowfall while both Binghamton and Syracuse reported a trace. The prediction was correct. Interesting to note that Albany had the highest high temperature on Monday, yet still managed over a half inch of snow.

For the World Forecast, I believed that 2 out of the 4 big cities in Arizona and Nevada would have rain on either Sunday or Monday. The table below shows the National Weather Service’s reports for the four cities.

Arizona and Nevada Rainfall
City	Sunday	Monday
Cities with rain on either Sunday or Monday: 3
Las Vegas, NV	None	0.04
Phoenix, AZ	None	0.01
Reno, NV	Trace	0.06
Tucson, AZ	None	None

This forecast was correct as well. Tucson was the only of the four not to have any rain on either day. The other three all had rain on Monday. Reno was the only one to have any sort of rain on Sunday, with just a trace.

Golden SnowCast Results
Region	Record
Overall Percentage: 81.25%
NYS	6-2
World	7-1
Overall	13-3

Two more correct predictions and the percentage is back over 80%. I still have a bit of work to do to get up to 90%, as I need the next 7 weeks (14 predictions) to be perfect to reach that mark. At the very worst, I have more breathing room over 50%, as it would take 10 straight missed predictions to fall to that level.

Have a great rest of the week everyone!

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Stump the Weather Chump Volume 1

January 19th, 2010

On January 18th, an anonymous commenter on the Golden Snowball site wanted to know the date when 3 out of 5 Golden Snowball cities will have 4 more inches of snow than their current totals.

A quick look indicates that it will be relatively quiet snow-wise for most of the GSB cities for the week. After that, forecasts generally fall apart, so this is where the fun (and the “shot in the dark”) begins. I’m targeting February 1st as the day in question.

This is where the modification comes in to play. Since it is well beyond the 2-3 day range that is ideal for me (forecasts for a few days in advance are what I gave as a part of Penn State’s Campus Weather Service and the 2-3 day range is currently used with the Golden SnowCast), I am going to give myself a 3 day window on either side.

The date when at least 3 GSB cities increase their snow totals by 4 inches or more from today (using the 1/19 afternoon updates as the starting point) will be between January 29th and February 4th.

Here are the snow totals from the 1/19 afternoon updates:
Albany 19.8
Binghamton 39.3
Buffalo 48.7
Rochester 47.9
Syracuse 58.2

If you believe you can Stump the Weather Chump, feel free to leave a comment for the region and element you want predicted along with any other details you want to give. Try to keep it something that is closer to my range, but I will be as flexible as possible with all requests.